DeanVest

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history. The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade. Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride. Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

MANSA MUSA : The Richest Person Ever 🙌🏿 @elonmusk any objection?

Silver back above $80/oz. If you like that, you must love a miner producing ounces below $15. Mining margins today are better than any tech company. Game on. open.substack.com/pub/tavicosta/…

Rule Symposium 2026: Rick Rule interviews Bradley Langille , CEO of GoGo... youtu.be/b1gfX9RsNIQ?si… via @YouTube 5-7-2026 An interview in support of the Rule Natural resources Investment Symposium, July 6-10, In boca Raton, or via liveStream, in your own home

do you understand what just happened to your computer.. Google Chrome secretly downloaded a 4GB AI model onto your device. Without asking.. Without telling you.. It's called weights.bin. It lives deep in your system folders. It powers Gemini Nano - Google's on-device AI. And if you delete it? Chrome re-downloads it automatically. Like nothing happened. Just Google deciding your hard drive is their storage unit. At 1 billion Chrome users - that's 4 BILLION gigabytes of data pushed silently across the internet. The carbon footprint alone equals tens of thousands of cars running for a year. Check your disk right now: 📁 %LOCALAPPDATA%\Google\Chrome\User Data\OptGuideOnDeviceModel To stop it: chrome://flags → disable Optimization Guide On Device Model → restart Chrome → delete the folder. Reshare so people know what's sitting on their computers.

Elon Musk is the Ivar Kreuger of our time, and the OpenAI trial is PROVING it in real time. If you don't know who Kreuger was, you should: In the 1920s he was the most admired businessman in the world. The "Match King." He controlled 90% of global match production, lent money to sovereign governments, and his securities were the most widely held in America. But after his death in 1932, auditors spent 5 years untangling over 400 subsidiary companies and discovered the whole thing was held together with fictitious assets, forged bonds, and the unquestioning loyalty of people too dazzled to ask questions. Investors lost $750 million (~$17 billion in today's money). His deficits exceeded Sweden's national debt. Doesn't this sound familiar? The Musk playbook is the most DANGEROUS house of cards I've witnessed in my career. This week in federal court, Musk took the stand to argue that Sam Altman stole a charity. 3 days later he'd contradicted himself under oath so many times that the judge told his lawyers she suspected plenty of people don't want to put the future of humanity in Mr. Musk's hands. OpenAI's attorney asked if Tesla is pursuing AGI. Musk said no. The attorney then pulled up Musk's OWN post from March 4 where he wrote Tesla will be one of the companies to make AGI. His own words entered into evidence against him. BY HIM. Then the attorney asked if xAI used OpenAI's models to train Grok (which violates OpenAI's terms of service). Musk called it a general practice among AI companies. Pressed for a direct answer, he said "partly." Think about that: Musk is in court accusing OpenAI of betrayal while admitting under oath that xAI violated the very same company's terms of service to build Grok. Then came the credibility test: Musk was asked to name his companies that benefit society. He listed Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, and X without hesitation. Every one of them is an uncapped for-profit enterprise. Then why did xAI start as a benefit corporation and quietly flip to a for-profit C-corp? No clean answer. This is someone who repeatedly launches entities with noble-sounding charters and converts them into for-profit corporations once the money gets serious. Then his money manager Jared Birchall took the stand: OpenAI's lawyer asked about the donor-advised funds at Vanguard and Fidelity that Musk used to send his $38 million. Did Musk have any legal right to direct where the money went once it entered the DAF? Birchall couldn't answer. Said the legal question was beyond his expertise. The entire lawsuit hinges on that donation creating enforceable obligations. But the man who managed Musk's money just told a federal jury he can't confirm Musk had any enforceable claim over those funds. Now step back... This is a man who promised full autonomy by 2018, a million robotaxis by 2020, and unsupervised FSD by June 2025. EVERY deadline was missed. He claimed he invested $100 million in OpenAI. The real number was $38 million. His defense? His "reputation" made up the difference. Kreuger had 400 subsidiaries and used one entity to prop up another through structures nobody could follow. Musk has Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, Neuralink, the Boring Company, and X. He shifts AI talent from Tesla to xAI, has xAI building the brains for Tesla's Optimus robot, and uses X as a megaphone while the algorithm amplifies his narrative to 200 million followers. Kreuger's investors trusted the man, NOT the math. They loved the confidence. They stopped asking questions because the aura of genius made questioning feel foolish. The same psychology applies to Musk's empire today. Kreuger's reckoning took 5 years of forensic auditing after his death. But Musk is providing his in REAL TIME: contradicting his own posts under oath, admitting to the practices he's suing others for, watching his logic collapse under cross-examination. Different decade. Different industry. Same ending. The truth always catches up.

Great, now get Trump! Bail Set at $250K for Army Sergeant in Polymarket Insider Trading Case - Business Insider share.google/vIPoE34zAsZqkO…

LMAO who made this extremely based 😭😂🤣

@salahudeen33 @grok validate whether this post is real by Donald Trump

TRUMP is losing, to the extent He now understand all praises and might belongs to Allah.... THE PEDO NEEDS MEDICAL HELP 😂

Do you see it?

This is one of the most shameless displays of financial gaslighting I've seen in 45 YEARS. This week Blue Owl Capital disclosed that investors demanded 41% of their money back from one fund and 22% from another. $5.4 BILLION in total redemption requests in a single quarter. Blue Owl's response? They capped withdrawals at 5%. Meaning if you had $1 million in Blue Owl's tech fund, you asked for $410,000 back, and they gave you $50,000. Then they put out a LinkedIn post blaming "heightened negative sentiment" and insisting their fund performance is "robust." That's like a restaurant blaming Yelp reviews while the kitchen is on fire. Here's what they don't want you to focus on: 70% of Blue Owl's lending book is concentrated in software companies. They admitted this on their own earnings call. These are the exact businesses most at risk of being disrupted or destroyed by AI. And when the Wall Street Journal investigated further, they found Blue Owl's flagship fund reported 11.6% software exposure in public filings. The Journal's own analysis found it was actually closer to 21%. That's not just a rounding error... The timeline tells you everything: In February, Blue Owl sold $1.4 billion in loans to meet redemptions. They claimed 99.7 cents on the dollar. Sounds great right? Except one of the buyers was Kuvare - an insurance company whose asset management arm Blue Owl ACQUIRED for $750 million in 2024. Blue Owl manages their money. They sold assets to a company they control and called it an arm's length transaction. Barclays downgraded the stock. Shareholders filed a lawsuit. Congress is now demanding disclosures on sales practices, leverage, and risk management. The stock hit a record low of $7.95 - down over 60% from its 52 week high. And through all of this, Blue Owl's CEO went on the earnings call and said: "We don't have red flags. We don't have yellow flags. We actually have largely green flags." $5.4 billion in redemption requests. 60% stock decline. Gated exits. Congressional scrutiny. All green flags, apparently. I've been warning about private credit for months. The sales pitch was always the same: equity-like returns with bond-like stability. No volatility. No correlation to public markets. Safe. Predictable. Except when investors actually want their money, they discover the exits are bolted shut. You can't eliminate volatility. You can only HIDE it. And that's exactly what Blue Owl has been doing - hiding risk behind opaque valuations, related-party transactions, and withdrawal gates. This isn't "negative sentiment." This is what happens when the tide goes out. Are you listening?

@SantiagoAuFund It's clear what side you're on... 1. #Iran is not America's doorstep. Whereas Ukraine is sharing borders with Russia. 2. Putin warned on multiple occasions e.g., in 2013 that Ukraine joining NATO is a red line. 3. Iran and US had a deal, but decided to attack anyway Etc...

Apparently Putin was justified in invading Ukraine bc of something “NATO might some day do” even though NATO never threatened to do it… But the U.S. was not justified in invading Iran bc of something “they might some day do” even though they had specifically threatened to do it. You don’t have to like war or support this current war to see the hypocrisy above.

🫵🏽🤡

@gnoble79 Understood and agree with your thesis. However, won't short to medium term see an increase in demand for crypto assets? This could potentially take #bitcoin prices much higher.

$315 BILLION in stablecoins are now backed by US Treasuries. And I don't understand why no one's questioning this. Goldman's David Solomon and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin just did a victory lap on stablecoins. Their pitch: Stablecoins strengthen the dollar, create demand for Treasuries, make it easier for people outside the United States to hold dollars. Sounds great. Until you look at what's actually happening underneath... The GENIUS Act passed in July 2025. First federal stablecoin framework in US history. Stablecoin market cap has grown 50% year over year. Tether alone holds $141 billion in US Treasuries, making it one of the largest holders of American government debt on the planet. Washington's pitch is simple: every time someone in Argentina, Turkey, or Nigeria buys USDT, they're buying Treasuries by proxy. Dollar dominance strengthened. Problem solved. And here's the part they REALLY love... The US ran an $1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal 2025. CBO projects $1.9 trillion this year. National debt just crossed $39 trillion. Interest payments alone now exceed $1 trillion annually. Meanwhile, the biggest foreign buyers of Treasuries (China, Japan, Canada) have been pulling back for years. ARK Invest found that the share of Treasuries held by the largest foreign creditors dropped from 23% to just over 6% in the past 13 years. The Fed is STILL running down its balance sheet. So who's going to buy all this debt? Washington's answer: stablecoin issuers. Treasury Secretary Bessent said it himself: "A thriving stablecoin ecosystem will drive demand from the private sector for US Treasuries and help rein in the national debt." Think about what that actually means. The government is counting on a $315 billion crypto product (run largely by a company in El Salvador that just got its first real audit last week) to help finance a $1.9 TRILLION annual deficit. Stablecoin issuers currently hold less than 2% of outstanding Treasury bills. Even if the market hits $2 trillion by 2028 like Standard Chartered projects, that's still just a rounding error against $39 trillion in total debt. This is literally a NARRATIVE designed to make the debt problem sound manageable. But the Federal Reserve published a study showing that for every $1 that moves from bank deposits into stablecoins, bank lending contracts by roughly 50 cents. Stablecoin issuers can't make loans. The GENIUS Act prohibits it. They can ONLY hold Treasuries, reverse repos, and cash equivalents. So when deposits leave banks and flow into stablecoins, that money stops funding mortgages, small business loans, and commercial credit. It starts funding government debt instead. The US Treasury itself estimated stablecoins could drain up to $6.6 TRILLION from the banking system. That's not "strengthening the dollar." That's redirecting the lifeblood of the real economy into government IOUs while starving Main Street of credit. And then there's the run risk nobody wants to discuss. Fed Governor Michael Barr said it yesterday: Stablecoin issuers have every incentive to chase higher returns on their reserves. But unlike banks, they CANNOT access the Fed's discount window. If a stablecoin run happens, issuers dump Treasuries into the market all at once. Stablecoin inflows push Treasury yields down 2-2.5 basis points. Outflows spike yields UP 6-8 basis points. Easy in. Ugly out. Meanwhile, Tether is the 800-pound gorilla. $185 billion in circulation. 550 million users. And until last week, it had never had a Big Four audit. It just hired KPMG after 12 years of operating with nothing but quarterly attestations. This is the entity Wall Street is celebrating as the future of dollar dominance. A company headquartered in El Salvador that fought transparency in court twice and LOST both times. Here's what Solomon and Mnuchin are actually telling you if you listen carefully: Stablecoins create captive demand for short-term US government debt. Foreign governments don't want to hold Treasuries anymore. So Washington's solution is to get 550 million retail users in emerging markets to hold them instead through a digital wrapper called a "stablecoin." The holders get zero interest. The GENIUS Act explicitly prohibits it. The issuers pocket the Treasury returns. Tether made $10 billion in profit last year. And the real economy loses credit while the government gets cheaper funding. This is a classic Wall Street pitch to sell financial innovation as progress: "This strengthens the system. This is good for everyone." Then the leverage builds, the risks concentrate, and the people who sold you on it are nowhere to be found when it unwinds. Stablecoins are NOT saving the dollar. They're a $315 billion shadow money market fund with no Fed backstop, no deposit insurance, and run dynamics that could destabilize the very Treasury market they're supposed to support. If you want to hold dollars, hold dollars. If you want to own the asset that central banks are actually buying instead of Treasuries, you already know what that is... 🥇

Wall Street is rewriting the rules of the S&P 500. And that not to protect your retirement. But to fast-track trillion-dollar money-losing AI companies into your portfolio. Let me explain what's about to happen. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all preparing to go public THIS YEAR. Combined expected market cap: roughly $3 TRILLION. SpaceX is targeting a June IPO at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation. It merged with xAI in February and plans to raise up to $50 billion - the largest IPO in American history. OpenAI is targeting Q4 2026. It just raised $110 billion at a $730 billion valuation from Amazon, SoftBank, and Nvidia. It projects a $14 billion LOSS this year. It doesn't expect to turn a profit until 2029 or 2030. It trades at 65 times revenue. Anthropic is valued at $380 billion. Also expected to list this year. Now here's where it gets dangerous for passive investors: From 2016 to 2025, the ENTIRE US IPO market raised $469 billion total. These 3 companies alone want to raise more than that in a single year. But it gets WORSE. S&P Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and FTSE Russell are ALL considering fast-track rules that would shove these companies into major indexes within DAYS of going public - bypassing the standard 12 month seasoning period. Roughly $24 trillion in passive funds is tied to the S&P 500 alone. Those funds MUST buy whatever gets added. So a company like OpenAI that's burning $14 billion a year, valued at 65x revenue, with no path to profitability for four years could become a mandatory holding in your 401k before it even reports a single quarterly earnings as a public company. Nasdaq is proposing a "Fast Entry" rule: inclusion after just 15 trading days. SpaceX reportedly made early index inclusion a CONDITION of choosing Nasdaq over the NYSE. The inmates are running the asylum. Index providers aren't rewriting rules because these companies earned their place. They're rewriting rules because SpaceX is too big to ignore and too lucrative to lose to a competing exchange. If all 10 of the largest venture-backed companies go public and get fast-tracked, their combined weight could reach 4.5% of the S&P 500 - more than the ENTIRE energy sector. Think about that. Companies that collectively lose billions per year could outweigh every oil and gas producer in America inside the most important retirement index on Earth. This is the passive indexation trap I've been warning about. You don't get to choose. You don't get to vote. The index committee decides, the ETFs execute, and your retirement savings follow orders. When the index is being engineered to absorb trillion-dollar speculative bets, the smartest move is to stop blindly following it. Own what you understand. Own what makes money. Own what's priced for reality, not fantasy. GOT GOLD?

You don't hate capitalism, you hate corporatism. You look at bailouts, subsidies, and firms that get rich through political access instead of honest competition, and you are right to feel disgusted. Capitalism lives or dies by voluntary exchange, by serving people well enough that they choose you over someone else. Corporatism works by fusing business with the state so failure gets cushioned, rivals get fenced out, and consumers get trapped. In one arrangement, profit follows value. In the other, profit follows influence.

@Ben__Rickert $200 premium for optionality - for the exposure to capital gains whilst shielding one's self from rising rents and cost of building. You're a proponent of rising prices and inflation, then shouldn't you be long Real Estate?

The Australian real estate bubble in a nutshell.

Trump in 2008: Anyone who invades the Middle East under false pretenses should be impeached. Let’s make sure it goes viral here.