Marcus Hellyer

643 posts

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Marcus Hellyer

Marcus Hellyer

@DefenceDollars

Defence economics and capability | Birdwatching and photography

Katılım Mart 2018
113 Takip Edilen2K Takipçiler
Jennifer Parker
Jennifer Parker@JAParker29·
Actually - I trust the women who have done the jobs and the medical experts. How dare anyone degrade the service of women in frontline land combat roles since 2013 - & of course women (including me) have been in frontline combat roles in the other domains for decades.
Steve Kuper@SteveKuper2

I trust the judgement and informed opinion of a man who has been in combat at the tip of the spear over a dandy who has only ever been a professional hack #auspol

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Corey
Corey@trader51·
@AndrewBGreene @heyycourtt Is he entitled to a bigger jet too, surely DPM doesn’t have to slum it in a jet afforded to Defence Minister 🤷‍♂️
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Marcus Hellyer
Marcus Hellyer@DefenceDollars·
@redunley Ukraine drove the Russian navy from the Black Sea using cheap, disposable drones and not a single ship. There. Done.
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Marcus Hellyer
Marcus Hellyer@DefenceDollars·
Episode 7 of the Grumpy Strategists out now. Observations on Indo Pac 23 trade show and B-21 first flight, as well as translating Defence's internal review of what went wrong in the Hunter frigate selection process into regular English. shorturl.at/nrsZ6
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Sam Roggeveen
Sam Roggeveen@SamRoggeveen·
I'm looking for a term that's similar to "hindsight bias" but not quite. It's the tendency to retrospectively normalise radical change. As in, an action or event overturns the status quo, but we look back on it as uncontroversial or typical. Is there a term for that?
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Marcus Hellyer
Marcus Hellyer@DefenceDollars·
@redunley The trials of Job. That's the story about believing in something that deliberately turns your life to shit
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Marcus Hellyer
Marcus Hellyer@DefenceDollars·
@VKAbramowicz @redunley It gets complicated. Some wanted ASW-focused frigate - but what's the point of an ASW frigate if it's sunk by a missile? And what's going to carry all your missiles? Can the RAN have warships with a narrow mission? And if it's about ASW, why get a frigate in the first place?
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Richard Dunley
Richard Dunley@redunley·
BAE coming out swinging over Hunter. Interesting reference to "building a different ship overseas" - whilst I have mentioned this possibility (and there are precedents) Ive not seen it in the public debate much before. theaustralian.com.au/special-report…
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Marcus Hellyer
Marcus Hellyer@DefenceDollars·
@VKAbramowicz @redunley And that's really the heart of the issue. SEA 5000 lacked conceptual clarity. It became all things to all people
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Victor Abramowicz
Victor Abramowicz@VKAbramowicz·
@redunley @DefenceDollars Concur. Also, since when is this an AAW project? The RAN requirement was for an ASW vessel. Don’t get me wrong, more vls is better than less, but we fight subs with heloes, not ASROC. The 96 VLS is a bit of a sop.
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Marcus Hellyer
Marcus Hellyer@DefenceDollars·
Grumpy Strategists Episode 4 is out. Lots to grump about this week - Army reorg, collapse of Army helicopter capability, PM's upcoming adventures in Washington and Beijing. P.S. The Grumpy Strategists can now be found on Spotify. shorturl.at/dfnCW
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Marcus Hellyer
Marcus Hellyer@DefenceDollars·
So new Arafura class OPVs have no big gun, no missiles, no speed, no helicopter - and now no UAV? Dare I hope that this is part of a cunning plan to instead get an awesome UAV made by an Aussie company... Am prolly just dreaming... shorturl.at/fjHOU
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Old man over the hill
Old man over the hill@mac95871978·
@redunley This is where I totally disagree with you. Creating doubt is the very fundamental of deterrence. The ability to convince some regional coup leader that his actions will result in 12 tomahawks on his head in 90 minutes, with no ability for him to confirm or disprove is the very
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Richard Dunley
Richard Dunley@redunley·
Doubt regarding what though? I have huge respect for VADM Mead and his team, but we desperately need to go beyond this frankly rather banal line that we are buying a $368BN "Question Mark".
Alex Bristow 史德礼@AlexBristowASPI

Criticism that SSNs aren’t appropriate because they can operate far from our shores misses the point - the advantage of SSNs is that they instil maximum doubt in an adversary’s mind, says @AustSubAgency head VADM Jonathan Mead to @JAParker29 @ASPI_org Conference #DisruptandDeter

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Marcus Hellyer
Marcus Hellyer@DefenceDollars·
My latest Strategic Analysis Australian piece has some thoughts on why simplistic dismissals of Australia's industrial base are misleading. The inputs that go into generating our huge resource exports can be used to generate defence capability. shorturl.at/cprst
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Marcus Hellyer
Marcus Hellyer@DefenceDollars·
@JasonThomasDeM1 Yup, if we are spending $368 billion, then a few billion more for concrete and air defence is mandatory. The bad guys are going to try to kill our SSNs before they ever go to sea
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Marcus Hellyer
Marcus Hellyer@DefenceDollars·
I did say that B-21s would be an awesome ASW platform since subs spend most of their lives in plain view... Ukrainian Bombers Firing Western Cruise Missiles Have Knocked Out A Russian Submarine forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
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Marcus Hellyer
Marcus Hellyer@DefenceDollars·
@JAParker29 And the USN doesn't have an answer to the cost-capability death spiral either. Their fleet is ageing and numbers going backwards too.
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Jennifer Parker
Jennifer Parker@JAParker29·
‘This govt. has asked an American to tell us what warships to buy, rather than relying on its own navy’s advice’. | A poignant and worthy read by Rowan Moffitt. Whilst I don’t agree with all elements, we do need to ask ourselves how did we get here? afr.com/policy/foreign…
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Marcus Hellyer
Marcus Hellyer@DefenceDollars·
@redunley @JAParker29 The problem is that without an Australian commercial shipping industry, there's no workforce pool to draw upon.
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