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If you cannot patiently wait for good setups to come in, you will eventually need to patiently wait for funds to come in because you have lost so much to worse setups
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Degen Bread
412 posts
Degen Bread
@DegenBread
Never stop betting on yourself, you are the best investment that you can ever make
Katılım Aralık 2021
215 Takip Edilen25 Takipçiler
Degen Bread retweetledi
China Internet Stocks Just Completed a 13-Year Round Trip
In August 2013, the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF — KWEB — traded around $26.
Today, more than a decade later, it is still around $26.
During the same period, the U.S. produced an AI boom, a cloud boom, a mega-cap tech boom, and one of the greatest wealth-creation cycles in modern market history.
China produced Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, JD, Pinduoduo, ByteDance, electric vehicles, mobile payments, and one of the most sophisticated digital consumer ecosystems on earth.
And yet the broad China internet trade went nowhere.
This is the central lesson investors keep ignoring:
A great company is not always a great stock.
A great industry is not always a great investment.
And a great growth story can be completely destroyed by governance risk.
KWEB did not fail because China lacked talent, scale, technology, or consumer demand.
It failed because the market learned that in Xi Jinping’s China, equity holders are not the senior claimants. The Party is.
The last five years made this brutally clear.
The platform crackdown crushed valuation multiples.
The tutoring ban vaporized an entire listed industry almost overnight.
Evergrande exposed the property model.
Youth unemployment surged.
The population began shrinking.
Foreign capital started asking a question it should have asked earlier:
What exactly do I own when I buy a Chinese equity?
In Western markets, investors debate earnings, margins, interest rates, and competition.
In China, investors must also price in one more variable:
political permission.
That variable has no terminal value model, no clean discount rate, and no reliable hedge.
This is why the KWEB chart is so important. It is not just a stock chart. It is a 13-year case study in how political risk can eat innovation, growth, and index inclusion alive.
The old China trade was simple: buy growth, ignore politics.
The new China trade is different:
Respect the innovation.
Fear the governance.
And never confuse national ambition with shareholder return.
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@HyperTechInvest If you gonna post, just post it. Dont be a cock teaser
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There is one key $SPCX supplier trading at 13x 2026 EPS, and nobody is talking about it
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Degen Bread retweetledi
🚨 Gold and silver are getting hit just as hard as Bitcoin. And that tells you something.
In the last two weeks:
– Gold has fallen from around $4,540 to $4,160, roughly 8%
– Silver has dropped from about $78 to $64, roughly 18%
No crisis headline. No rate shock. No catalyst.
Here's why that matters.
Gold is the asset you're supposed to run toward when things get scary. When stocks fall and gold rises, that's a flight to safety. Normal. Healthy.
But when gold, silver, and Bitcoin all fall together, at the same time, with no obvious reason, that is not a flight to safety.
That's a flight to cash.
When investors are forced to raise money, they don't sell what they want to sell. They sell what they can. The most liquid things they own. Gold. Silver. Bitcoin. The assets that trade instantly, anywhere, anytime.
And remember what's pulling cash out of the system right now:
– The largest IPO in history is hitting the tape this week
– OpenAI and Anthropic are lining up behind it, ~$200B more
– Google flipped from buying back $60B a year to issuing $80B
– Private credit funds are gating redemptions
– Margin debt sits at an all-time high relative to GDP
Trillions in supply, all demanding the same thing at the same moment. Liquidity.
When every safe haven and every risk asset sells off together, the asset isn't the story.
The plumbing is.
Gold isn't falling because gold is broken.
It's falling because somebody, somewhere, needs the cash more than they need the hedge.
That's what the late stage of a liquidity cycle looks like.
Not panic.
Just everyone quietly reaching for the same exit.
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Degen Bread retweetledi
Apple now trades at 10.36x sales. The highest valuation in its history.
Remember Scott McNealy's warning about 10x sales? Apple just crossed it.
But here's the part that should stop you.
McNealy was describing a hypergrowth company. Apple is not. Apple's annual revenue:
– 2022: $394 billion
– 2023: $383 billion (its first decline since 2019)
– 2024: $391 billion
– 2025: roughly $415 billion
Four years. Less than 2% growth a year. Essentially flat.
Yet over those same four years, the stock soared and the price-to-sales multiple nearly doubled.
Read that again.
The revenue barely moved. The valuation exploded. Every dollar of the gain came not from Apple selling more, but from investors agreeing to pay more for the same sales.
That is multiple expansion. It feels like growth. It is not growth. It is sentiment.
Apple's long-term average price-to-sales ratio is 3.6x. It now sits at 10.4x. Nearly three times its own historical norm.
For the math to work from here, one of two things has to happen. Either Apple suddenly reaccelerates revenue growth after years of stagnation. Or the multiple holds at the highest level in company history. Forever.
History says multiples revert. They always do. The only question is whether earnings grow fast enough to cushion the fall.
This is the quiet danger hiding in the "safest" stock in the world.
Nobody worries about Apple. The ultimate quality compounder. A Buffett favorite. A permanent holding.
All of that can be true.
And you can still lose money for a decade if you buy a flat-growth business at three times its normal price.
Great company. Demanding price.
They have never been the same thing.
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat
51% of the S&P 500's market cap is in stocks trading above 10x sales. Half the index. In 2002, after Sun Microsystems crashed 90%, CEO Scott McNealy famously said this about his own stock at 10x sales: "At 10x revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. Zero costs. Zero R&D. Zero taxes. Zero employees. What were you thinking?" He was explaining why investors had been insane to pay it. Today, half the S&P 500 trades there. Different decade. Same math.
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“winning enough of the base to make the frontier uneconomical for everyone else eventually, and dominance follows.”
Eugene Ng@EugeneNg
China grew to dominate the PCB market, not by out-innovating, but by out-supplying and undercutting, until most of the competition retreated. Could the Chinese players repeat that in memory, with CXMT for DRAM and YMTC for NAND? It is not about winning the frontier first, but winning enough of the base to make the frontier uneconomical for everyone else eventually, and dominance follows.
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Degen Bread retweetledi
Palantir cofounders @JTLonsdale and Alex Karp on raising money from VCs:
“In some places, we were too arrogant, in others we weren’t arrogant enough.”
“If we’d gone into the VCs and been like, ‘Fuck you. We’re going to win,’ they probably would’ve given us money.”
“We were at THE most famous VC, in the last round, and their most important partner spent his time doodling—my fantasy of it is he was doodling some erotic little picture he was fixated on.”
“If we’d stood up and walked out and said, ‘Fuck this, you’re wasting our time,’ the chances of them investing would’ve been much higher.”
Via @AmOptimistShow
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Degen Bread retweetledi
And again, and again, and again, the market proves to be more flexible and adaptable than the engineers, extrapolating, with their calculators expect. When prices change, behaviour changes. Believe in substitution, in elasticity, in human ingenuity, that is, in the market, and you will get a closer approximation than all doom-mongers. For this of course, a market must exist (e.g., does not apply to the fertility collapse).
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
CHART OF THE DAY: On Apr 16, the IEA made a headline-grabbing warning: Europe had "maybe 6 weeks or so of jet fuel left." It's week seven; the planes are still flying. Since those headlines, European wholesale jet fuel prices have fallen ~30% to a ~3-month low.
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Degen Bread retweetledi
I once got job security advice from an old timer who worked at IBM: "you have to inject subtle time bombs in the code that only you can disable. If they ever fire you they have to hire you back at 2x as a consultant"
taoki@justalexoki
this is really really bad. for everybody involved. do not do this. disincentivize this as strongly as you can. this is bad
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Degen Bread retweetledi
Degen Bread retweetledi
Back in the 1960s there was a company called National Video. They made color television picture tubes, and were the first to produce a 23-inch rectangular color TV picture tube. It quickly became the industry standard, and every major TV set producer scrambled to get their hands on National Video’s picture tubes. They literally couldn’t make them fast enough.
The stock went from a low of 15 in 1964 to a peak of 120 in October 1965. The final 70 points came in just the last few months.
Eventually, though, the Motorola’s and Zenith’s of the world produced their own color TV picture tubes. They didn’t need National Video’s any longer.
The stock went from 120 to a low of 40 in 1966, 15 in 1967, and then to zero in 1968 as the company went bankrupt. The poor thing couldn’t even make it to the Go-Go years.
In those days, Mueller and Company produced tick volume charts. National Video’s chart depicted the stock going from Northwest to Southeast in a straight line while the tick volume line went straight up.
The stock was a fundamental short. In those days, short sales could only be executed on an uptick. Which meant the whole world was always offered up an eighth.
Oh, National Video’s ticker symbol? NVD.A.
This story is true, but any resemblance to any other companies is purely coincidental.
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Degen Bread retweetledi
I started memecoin trading in Q4 2024 as a beginner from phantom swaps & dex screener to bullx neo. I witnessed everything. The biggest wealth transfer I’ve ever seen as a normie. It changed my perspective on money forever and I came out with nothing to show for it. I’m not in debt or anything, but I feel like I missed the train.
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Degen Bread retweetledi
Warren Buffett spent thirty years calling airline stocks “a death trap for investors.” Then he bought every major US airline. Then he sold them all at the bottom of the COVID crash for billions in losses.
In a 1990 letter to investors in his company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett wrote that humanity would have been better off if “a farsighted capitalist” had been present at Kitty Hawk in 1903 and shot Orville Wright down before he could fly the first plane. He’d already been burned once. In 1989 he put $358 million into US Airways. Five years later his stake was worth a quarter of what he paid for it. He called the whole thing a case of “sloppy analysis or hubris.”
In 2016 he forgot all of it. Berkshire poured $7 to $8 billion into Delta, American, Southwest, and United. By late 2019 he was Delta’s single largest shareholder.
When COVID hit he panicked. American Airlines stock had already crashed 63%. Delta was down 59%. He sold everything at the bottom in April 2020. Within weeks the airlines started recovering. A year later American and Southwest were up 80% from those lows. United and Delta were up 70%. If he had simply held on, his position would have been worth around $5 billion more.
At the 2020 shareholder meeting he said it plainly. “Our airline position was a mistake. Berkshire is worth less today because I took that position than if I hadn’t.”
Buffett’s other most repeated line is “be greedy when others are fearful.” He sold at the bottom of a crash while everyone else was selling too. He broke his airline rule and his rule against panic-selling in the same decision. Two of the most quoted principles in modern investing, both written by him, both ignored by him when it mattered most.
The most cited investor alive could see the trap clearly enough to warn the world about it for three decades. He still walked into it twice.
philosophy memes 🔗@philosophymeme0
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Degen Bread retweetledi
“Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed.”
Most people use this line as a reminder when their stocks are down… But it also allows you to stay invested long enough to make 100X or more when your stocks are up.
Investment Wisdom@InvestingCanons
Charlie Munger: “The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting.” Yesterday, Howard Marks showed why during an interview at Wharton: “As I recall, I think Amazon was $90 in ‘99 on the tech bubble. And then when the bubble burst in 2000 or 2001, it was $6. So it went from $90 to $6. It was down 93%. So what if you were smart enough to buy it at $6? Would you have held it at $12? Or would you have said, well, I’ve doubled my money. I’m going to take some off the table. I’m going to take out my cost and let my profits ride. And let’s say you held it at $12. You’re tough. What about when it got to $60 and you’ve made 10X your money? Would you sell it? Most people would. What about when it got to $600 and you’ve made 100X your money? Would you sell half? Would you sell 3/4? Would you sell 90%? And at the time I wrote it, as I recall, Amazon was $3,300. So if you sold it at $600, when it was up 100X, you left, basically, 85% of the money on the table.” Peter Lynch put it this way: “Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed.” Most people use this line as a reminder when their stocks are down… But it also allows you to stay invested long enough to make 100X or more when your stocks are up.
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Degen Bread retweetledi
Today, SanDisk replaced Atlassian in the Nasdaq-100.
A NAND manufacturer took the seat of a Jira vendor. That is the regime change in one headline. Read it twice.
For 15 years, the Nasdaq-100 was a monument to asset-light software. High gross margins, negative working capital, zero cleanroom capex, Rule of 40 as scripture. SanDisk is the anti-Atlassian. Fabs, fluorine chemistry, EUV-adjacent lithography, 232-layer stacks, wafer yields measured in basis points. Actual physics.
And here is the part nobody on fintwit is pricing in.
The US graduated 24,547 electrical engineering bachelor’s in 1986-87. In 2020-21, we graduated 16,914.
Four decades later. Still below the Reagan-era peak. Not flat. Down.
Computer science over the same window went from roughly 39k to 109k. Call it 2.8x. The two lines on the chart do not just diverge, they mock each other.
I say this as an electrical engineer. UCSD, Fainman’s ultrafast nanoscale optics lab, silicon photonics, micro-ring resonators. I know exactly what it takes to train someone who can actually move a process node, close timing on a mixed-signal die, or debug a yield problem at 3am. It is not a weekend cohort. It is a decade minimum, and most of that decade happens inside a fab or a tape-out cycle, not a classroom.
An entire generation of smart kids was correctly told to chase software. That is where the returns were. TAM expansion, zero marginal cost, stock comp that prints. Nobody was writing Substacks about NAND process engineers in 2015. Nobody was telling their kid to go learn III-V epitaxy instead of React.
Now the regime has flipped and the pipeline is a ghost town.
You cannot bootcamp a device physicist. You cannot GPT your way into an analog layout. You cannot vibe-code a 232-layer charge trap stack. The training loop is a PhD plus a decade of tribal knowledge locked inside TSMC, Micron, Hynix, Samsung, Applied Materials, and maybe a dozen labs that actually still teach this stuff.
When SanDisk wants to double enterprise SSD output, the binding constraint is not capital. The market will fund it at any multiple you can type into a DCF right now. The constraint is humans who know how to make the stack yield. And those humans are already employed, already vested, and already being counter-offered.
This is the Memory Wars thesis with a labor-market overlay. The software guys spent 15 years telling us hardware was a commodity. Now the commodity has pricing power and the “real engineers” are the ones walking into comp negotiations with leverage for the first time in a generation.
Pricing power accrues to whoever already has the talent locked up. That is the incumbents, and anyone with a serious university pipeline. Everyone else is about to learn that CHIPS Act money does not manufacture device physicists. It just bids up the ones who already exist.
SanDisk entering the NDX is not the story.
SanDisk entering the NDX while the US graduates fewer EEs than it did under Reagan, that is the story.
Source: NCES Digest of Education Statistics, Tables 325.35 and 325.47. Bachelor’s degrees only.
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Degen Bread retweetledi
Howard Marks: “10-year forward returns were between 2% and -2% whenever the market traded at 23x earnings.”
I remember many people dismissed him as a “perennial bear” when he said this.
Now they say “the market wouldn’t decline if it weren’t for the Iran War.”
It’s always this reason or that reason.
What’s undeniable is that when the valuations become unsustainably high, the market inevitably corrects itself.
Thinking that this time would be different is the most dangerous thing you can do in the market.
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Yeah fuck the job market lol
Karthik@karthikponna19
fuck LinkedIn fuck experience fuck cover letters fuck internships fuck careers
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Degen Bread retweetledi
Tom said it best.
For stocks:
Bottoming is an event
Topping is a process
For metals & commodities:
Topping in an event
Bottoming is a process
Gold. Silver put topping candles.
Oil should top in the same way, fast & ugly red candle
Tom McClellan@McClellanOsc
The problem with doing this is the assumption that up and down are the same in the stock market. They are not. The stock market tends to make spiked bottoms and rounded tops. This is the opposite of gold, which makes spike tops and rounded bottoms. The reason why this happens has to do with the nature of panic. People panic out of stocks and into cash, hence the spike bottoms in stocks. But people panic out of cash and into gold, hence gold's spike tops. Different markets have different chart personalities. For this reason, charts for each type of market need to be interpreted with an understanding of that market. Interpretive principles do not generally transplant well from one type of market to another because of that difference in their inherent natures.
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Degen Bread retweetledi
Legendary CME floor trader, Lewis Borsellino believes successful traders share one thing in common: a specific personality type.
“If you went to work all week and your boss said, ‘yeah, you did a good job this week, but I can't pay you.’ How long would you do that job for?”
“Trading is one of the only professions where you can work hard…
Do everything right…And still make no money for weeks.”
That’s why most people quit.
Most people can’t be traders. Not because they’re not smart. But because they can’t handle loss.
The question is simple: Can you keep showing up anyway?
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