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Most investors are watching Bloomberg and Reuters. Both tell you what happened. Neither tells you what it costs 60 countries simultaneously or which ones are actually winning from the chaos. I built DELAX GeoRisk Intel because I needed that platform. Here is how to use it to make smarter decisions during the Iran war and every geopolitical shock that follows. Thread 🧵 Link in bio. #GeoRisk #Investing #FinancialIntelligence

Before the war Hormuz was 34km wide. Iran now claims a “far larger area” as its territorial waters, per WSJ. The US launched a war to stop Iran from controlling a strait. Iran responded by claiming sovereignty over a bigger one. Operation Epic Fury set out to reduce Iran’s military footprint in the region. 74 days later Iran’s maritime territorial claim is the largest it has ever been in history. DELAX GeoRisk had the Pessimistic Scenario at 20% in February. It is at 30% now. Maybe, 🤔 the map is moving in the wrong direction. #GeoRisk #IranWar2026

Iran has dramatically widened its territorial claim over the Strait of Hormuz, asserting control over a far larger area than before the war. An IRGC naval official warned Tehran will "not allow any kind of encroachment upon its waters and interests." -WSJ. Wall Street Journal.

The President who started a war demanding Iran surrender its nuclear program is now taking aim at beef and gasoline prices caused by the same war, in a push for affordability, ahead of elections that will be decided by the voters paying both the war tax and the grocery bill simultaneously. 🤷 The nuclear demand costs $4.11 (average) at the pump. The affordability push costs a press conference. One of those is harder to fix than the other. And the winner is … #GeoRisk #IranWar2026

US President Donald Trump has mounted a new push to tackle affordability, taking aim at beef and gasoline amid surging consumer prices that may threaten his party’s hold on Congress bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Ghalibaf says American taxpayers will pay for delays. Generous of him to limit it to Americans. The 1.4 billion Africans absorbing 6.8/10 stress index inflation, the 88% oil-dependent Indians watching their rupee weaken, the Bangladeshis in active fuel crisis, the Germans at 6.9/10 stress with 0.6% GDP, and the Filipinos who declared a state of emergency, none of them had a vote in starting this war either, but they are all paying the same tab. The deal taking longer does not cost American taxpayers. It costs humanity 0.2 points of global GDP per quarter, per the IMF, billed equally to everyone regardless of citizenship. #GeoRisk #IranWar2026

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf says American taxpayers "will pay" for delays in reaching a deal.

Day 73. Iran demands Hormuz sovereignty and war reparations. Trump calls it “totally unacceptable.” Ceasefire on “massive life support.” Brent up 4.92% to $105.76. Saudi Aramco CEO: normalization lasts into 2027 even if Hormuz opens today. DELAX GeoRisk: Optimistic 18% (was 32%). Baseline 52%. Pessimistic 30% (was 20%). Brent price prediction this week based on Trump’s documented pattern: 🔴 Trump escalates rhetoric before Beijing ($108 to $112) — 71% probability. He did this before every previous summit this year. 🟢 Trump tweets “great meeting” after Xi ($98 to $102): 58% probability. Brent drops 3 to 5% on the optimism alone regardless of what was actually agreed. 🔴 Trump reverses position within 48 hours of any deal signal ($105+): 64% probability. The week range: $98 to $115 depending entirely on one man’s Truth Social feed. The only honest signal remains Brent itself. #GeoRisk #IranWar2026

The country that stored Iran’s enriched uranium in 2015 as part of the deal that kept the world safe, and then watched the US exit that same deal in 2018, is now offering to store it again while simultaneously selling Iran discounted oil, shielding Iranian shipping from sanctions, and vetoing every UN Security Council resolution against Tehran. Putin is not offering to solve the nuclear problem. He is offering to hold it for leverage.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Amazing!

Russian President Vladimir Putin says Moscow is ready to transport and store Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, adding that his country had transported enriched uranium out of Iran in 2015 and was prepared “to repeat this experience.” 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/9nyrnq

One Qatari LNG tanker. Iran-approved. Heading toward Hormuz. Day 71. Zero LNG transits in 71 days. Nineteen carriers stranded. This is Iran’s minimum viable peace signal. Though enough to keep the memo alive, it’s not enough to move Brent below $95. DELAX GeoRisk: 71% it transits successfully. 7% it gets turned back and the deal collapses. #GeoRisk #IranWar2026

Qatari LNG tanker sailing towards Hormuz Strait, shipping data shows reut.rs/4ws0p1N reut.rs/4ws0p1N

Relatively calm in Hormuz means six ships instead of zero. Not 130. The US sanctioned Iranian entities in China and Hong Kong while waiting for Tehran's peace response. That is negotiating a lease while changing the locks. DELAX GeoRisk: 54% probability both sides declare a framework agreement after May 14. Brent toward $88. The new floor. #GeoRisk #IranWar2026

U.S., IRAN STILL FAR FROM PEACE AS HORMUZ TENSIONS EASE The U.S. and Iran remained deadlocked on Saturday as Washington awaited Tehran’s response to a proposal to formally end the war and begin peace talks. After days of clashes, the Strait of Hormuz was relatively calm. A Qatari LNG tanker headed toward the waterway in what sources called a confidence-building move approved by Iran. The conflict, triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in February, has disrupted oil markets and threatened global trade. Iran has largely restricted shipping through Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Britain said it was deploying a warship to the region for a possible mission to protect shipping, while the U.S. announced new sanctions targeting Iran-linked entities in China and Hong Kong. Iran accused Washington of sabotaging diplomacy, while U.S. officials said they still expected a response from Tehran.

Citi: $120 Brent in 3 months. Base case: Hormuz reopens by May 31. Citi's own commodities head, same week: "This regime can last not just months. Years." One of those is the forecast. The other is the honest assessment. DELAX GeoRisk prediction: 🔴 Citi's base case probability: 28% on our model. The May 31 reopening assumption is the weakest link. 🟡 DELAX Baseline: $95-$110 sustained through Q3. Structural floor holds regardless of deal. 🔴 The number Citi buried: Brent needs $160-$180 to match historic oil-spend-to-GDP peaks. That scenario is not priced. Citi December 2025 forecast: $60 Brent in early 2026. Citi May 2026 forecast: $120. The most accurate forecast on Brent this year has been the one that tracked Hormuz, not the spreadsheet. That is what DELAX GeoRisk was built to do. #GeoRisk #OilMarkets #IranWar2026 #FinancialIntelligence

While families in the US pay $4.11 for gas, Europeans heat their homes at record cost, and Africa absorbs 6.8/10 stress index inflation, the two countries that benefit most from $100 oil just announced they are deepening their energy partnership. The people paying the cost of this war did not choose it. The people profiting from it just shook hands.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​😯

Putin: Russia and China are preparing to take a very serious step forward in cooperation in the gas and oil sectors.

Iran is winning the information war with AI-generated videos. Here is how it ends, per historical pattern. 2019: Iran ran disinformation. US sanctioned IRIB within 18 months. 2022: 1,500 fake Iranian accounts removed by Meta. Treasury sanctioned the network within 60 days. 2024: Iranian AI content targeting US elections. OFAC responded within 90 days. DELAX GeoRisk prediction: 🔴 84% : OFAC designates an Iranian AI content network within 90 days 🟡 71%: X, Meta and YouTube receive formal removal requests within 30 days 🔴 63%: Iran targets May 14 Beijing summit specifically to widen the cost of any Trump-Xi deal The information war follows the same escalation ladder as the physical one. Iran tests. The US responds slowly. Iran adapts faster. The lag between test and response is where the real damage happens. It’s does not matter who’s wining when the innocents continue to suffer at the pump and everywhere else. #GeoRisk #IranWar2026 #InfoWar #AIWarfare

Iran tried tolls on oil. Now it wants permits and fees on undersea internet cables handling global data between Europe, Gulf and Asia. Same playbook. Bigger infrastructure. DELAX GeoRisk predictions: 🔴 89% — Gulf states accelerate Starlink and satellite backup routes immediately 🔴 76% — UNCLOS Article 113 legal challenge filed within 30 days 🟡 67% — Cable permits become a secondary sanctions weapon 🔴 31% — At least one cable cut within 60 days per 2013 and 2020 precedent The memo on the desk in Tehran just got more expensive. #GeoRisk #IranWar2026 #CyberRisk

BREAKING: Iran is moving to place all seven undersea internet cables running through the Strait of Hormuz under full Iranian control, requiring foreign operators to obtain permits, pay transit fees, and comply with Iranian law, according to Fars. The cables are said to handle a major share of global data traffic linking Europe, the Gulf, and Asia, with Iran proposing exclusive control over their management and maintenance through domestic companies. The IRGC has previously warned it could target submarine cable infrastructure in the region, which Gulf states heavily rely on for internet, banking, and cloud services.

Iran did not close Hormuz and then negotiate. It closed it. Charged tolls. Fired on ships. Then negotiated. The cable permit move follows the exact same sequence. 🔴 89%: Gulf satellite backup routes activated 🔴 76%: UNCLOS legal challenge within 30 days 🟡 67%: Cable access used as sanctions lever 🔴 31%: Physical cable cut within 60 days Every new chokepoint Iran controls costs more to undo at the table. How the world would come out of this is the biggest question. 🙋🏼‍♂️ #GeoRisk #IranWar2026 #CyberRisk

US intelligence has officially confirmed that the supreme leader of a country at war is involved in shaping its war strategy. Seventy days of analysis, three carriers, $25 billion spent, and the breakthrough finding is that the person in charge is in charge. Brent did not move on this ONE .

US intelligence assesses that Iran’s new supreme leader is playing a critical role in shaping war strategy alongside senior Iranian officials, according to multiple sources. cnn.it/4neshly

DELAX GEORISK: ARAGHCHI STATEMENT PROBABILITY MODEL Iran’s Foreign Minister: “Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure.” Probability this exact statement gets reissued in the next 30 days based on 70 days of historical pattern: 🔴 97% A version of this statement appears within 7 days. Pattern confirmed on March 19, April 4, April 13, April 22, May 7, May 8. 🔴 84% The statement is paired with a missile, drone, or boat incident within 48 hours of release. 🟡 62% A US official issues a mirror statement blaming Iran for “rejecting diplomacy” within the same news cycle. 🟢 41% Brent crude moves less than $2 on the statement. Markets have learned the script. 🔴 8% The pattern actually breaks and one side stops issuing the statement entirely. The model verdict: Iran’s foreign ministry communications operation is now the most predictable variable in the entire war. You could automate the press release, schedule it for the next escalation, and free the ministry to focus on actual diplomacy. Brent priced this in 30 days ago. #GeoRisk #IranWar2026 #Probability #FinancialIntelligence

I’d bet that the LNG slip is the most important peace signal in the commodity complex right now. The data behind the move, per Wood Mackenzie and now here: Asia LNG surged above $20/mmbtu at the peak of the Hormuz crisis. Pre-war: $10/mmbtu. The drop on deal hopes reflects Qatar ramping back toward pre-crisis levels by end of May, per Wood Mackenzie's model. But the real risk is the lag: oil-indexed LNG contracts reset on a 3-month delay. Even if Hormuz opens today, import costs for Asian buyers rise from June onward as the $105 oil price feeds through to contract prices. DELAX GeoRisk probability analysis: 🟢 62% — Asia LNG settles between $13 and $16/mmbtu by end of May if deal signed, per Wood Mackenzie reopening model 🟡 28% Prices stay above $18/mmbtu through Q3 as contract lag and demand destruction persist even after reopening 🔴 10% Talks collapse, Hormuz stays closed, prices retest $20+ by June Northeast Asia lost 4 to 5 million tonnes of demand through Q3 2026 even under the optimistic scenario, per Wood Mackenzie. The slip is real. The recovery is slower than the market thinks. #GeoRisk #LNG #IranWar2026 #FinancialIntelligence

Asia LNG slips on US–Iran deal hopes, weak northeast Asia demand reut.rs/4uErb5f reut.rs/4uErb5f

Asia LNG slipping on deal hopes tells you one thing. The market is front-running a Hormuz reopening that has not happened yet. The risk per Wood Mackenzie: oil-indexed LNG contracts reset on a 3-month lag. Even if Hormuz opens today, import costs rise from June as $105 oil feeds through. DELAX GeoRisk probability on LNG price floor holding: 🟢 62% — $13 to $16/mmbtu by end of May if deal signed 🟡 28% — Above $18/mmbtu through Q3 on contract lag 🔴 10% — Retests $20+ if talks collapse Northeast Asia already lost 4 to 5 million tonnes of demand through Q3, per Wood Mackenzie. The slip is a hope trade. The fundamentals are slower. #GeoRisk #LNG #IranWar2026

Araghchi describing US conduct as “every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the US opts for a reckless military adventure” is the same statement Iran’s foreign ministry has issued on March 19, April 4, April 13, April 22, May 7, and now today. Only the dates change. The pattern is so consistent at this point that you could automate the press release, queue it for the next escalation, and free up the Iranian foreign ministry to do other things. Brent priced this in 30 days ago.

Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure. Is it a crude pressure tactic? Or the result of a spoiler once again duping POTUS into another quagmire? Whatever the causes, outcome is the same: Iranians never bow to pressure.

@zerohedge And, the market moves accordingly, except Brent is not moving down.

*US, IRAN MAY RESUME TALKS AS EARLY AS NEXT WK IN ISLAMABAD: WSJ 15 minutes before the close: ramp time

Second-order effects worth tracking: domestic solar factory build-out depends on component inputs that remain concentrated in restricted supply chains. Policy actions targeting those chains create a near-term cost asymmetry. Domestic capacity expansion slows while global module pricing tightens for non-U.S. buyers.

Trump’s crackdown on China-linked solar firms stalls U.S. factory boom reut.rs/4uwWAGx reut.rs/4uwWAGx

The same architecture governs the use of force more broadly. Charter Art. 2(4) prohibition, Arts. 39–42 Council enforcement authority, Art. 51 self-defense exception. How states read consistency-of-application becomes a probability input for any subsequent vote. 👀 Market read: a vetoed resolution sustains current Brent risk premium and widens shadow-fleet crude discounts. A passing resolution compresses both, but raises enforcement-mechanism uncertainty. Neither path resolves Hormuz transit risk to baseline.