Delphine Strauss

@tonywilsonIES Yes... but there's a lot of uncertainty around the population count too, isn't there? I don't think the LFS fully reflects the latest population data yet.

@DelphineStrauss (i.e. 16-64 economic inactivity rate has increased by more than in any previous parliament). And this is the 16+ participation rate (employed plus unemployed divided by popn) which is lowest since 1998. So labour force growing less quickly than population for first time in years.

Full thread on today's jobs data, it's not easy reading... As I said earlier, it's been a dismal Parliament for jobs. First fall in employment since 1979, biggest rise in economic inactivity on record. But it's not the economy holding back employment - it's other way round...

@tonywilsonIES Hi Tony. Both the HMRC data and the workforce jobs measure tell a very different story on employment from the LFS over the post-pandemic period when we know the LFS has been misfiring. Are you confident the LFS is right on the big picture and that the workforce has contracted?

Final graph! Today also sees new 'workforce jobs' data which is drawn from employer surveys. This continues to show strong growth, on a similar trend to PAYE payroll data - below shows those two plus employee estimates from LFS. Not clear why these are different. but...

@RichardClegg522 @ChrisGiles_ @Laura_K_Hughes @GeorgeWParker @ONS @billwells_1 Hi Richard - interested to see your views here on the LFS/TLFS developments. Would you mind following me so I can send you a DM?

@ChrisGiles_ @Laura_K_Hughes @DelphineStrauss @GeorgeWParker @ONS I was responsible for publishing LM stats at @ons. Absolutely bizarre that they have done this. They should either have published it with an article explaining the caveats or not at all (probably the latter). @billwells_1

Great story hiding in plain sight The UK stats agency “published” employment data from a new survey. But didn’t tell anyone. 🫣 Shows unemployment way lower than thought. Really bad comms ONS ‘experimental’ data lowers UK unemployment rate to 3.5% ft.com/content/d209c4…

@JohnRalfe1 As you suggest, plenty of counter arguments that can be made - as in @ChrisGiles_ excellent column last month. ft.com/content/1a1c3a…

Why is there no-one quoted in this piece putting the counter-argument? @DelphineStrauss

More ill-informed & dangerous arm-waving on pensions, this time from the @resfoundation. Why on earth should the @ppf buy-out DB schemes when there are tried-and-tested insurance companies doing exactly this? ft.com/content/d7e1ee…

@ChrisGiles_ @Reuters @Bloomberg Not hard to interpret? "I would caution against suggesting either that we are done with increasing Bank Rate, or that we will inevitably need to do more."

Am enjoying the @Reuters Vs @Bloomberg disagreement over the intepretation of Andrew Bailey's speech. Again - have to hand it to Reuters -

@TorstenBell Here's some more detail. Includes funding for a lab for clinical trials... and a touring icthyosaur. rutland.gov.uk/council-news/2…

Does anyone have any idea what on earth the levelling up cash Rutland and Melton got is actually for? Here's the official spiel on it which is performance art level gibberish levellingup.campaign.gov.uk/projects-near-…

@aliceemross @NosyCrow Wow!

@PaulBivand Hi Paul - I'd be interested to know what you make of these figures. If you'd have time for a quick chat, could you possibly follow/DM me to exchange numbers?

The @ONS article on current labour market tightness in the UK looks at substantially all the measures in the economic literature. But, doesn't address whether labour market flows are enabling employers to recruit or retain staff.

@greenmiranda @ProfSobolewska @sarahoconnor_ @TheMontyDon My mum had similar advice - if it dies, the soil/light wasn't right anyway. If it survives, plant more of them... A few years in, I have a garden that needs almost no tending at all!

@ProfSobolewska @sarahoconnor_ my Grandad used to say "be as ruthless as a doctor and bury your failures" - @TheMontyDon ?

Only noticed belatedly that the kind (discerning) folk at FT Edit included my heartfelt tribute to Gardeners World in the FREE SELECTION OF 8 DAILY FT ARTICLES. Sign up via this link and also get the latest much discussed @sarahoconnor_ and much more ft.com/content/6b9b1b…

The @FinancialTimes wants to hear your plans for returning to the office. Are you eager to see your colleagues? Do you feel under pressure to return? Tell us via our survey. @emmavj @JaninaConboye @DelphineStrauss survey.ft.com/jfe/form/SV_4M…

@LizziePaton @laurenzcollins Middle name doesn't help! I have found border officials unable to deal with that much nuance.

@laurenzcollins I am having a baby in October and kept my maiden name after I got married (because of my byline!). Now I'm thinking I need to make my name the baby's middle name as a minimum as I hear about this sort of situation so often...it must be so widespread.

@MikeBrewerEcon @ChrisGiles_ @standardlifefdn Agreed on the 3m - largely because we don't know how many of them needed support. Clearest breakdown I've seen of the numbers making up the total is set out in NAO report from 13th October.

@ChrisGiles_ @DelphineStrauss At some point we should retire the 3 million stat, though. It was never clear how Excluded UK estimated it. (I know @standardlifefdn estimated 3 million ppl lost income in initial lockdown but didn't get JRS or SEISS, but that includes those on UC) standardlifefoundation.org.uk/en/our-work/pu…

UK self-employed feel the pain of missing out on Covid - excellent piece by ⁦@DelphineStrauss⁩ on.ft.com/34DgUws

@NickGeddes3 @ChrisGiles_ Certainly a debate to be had on tax (touched on that in later part of article). But cannot penalise people mid-pandemic for acting in line with the tax incentives gvt set - and there are other good reasons to pay yourself in dividends...

@ChrisGiles_ @DelphineStrauss Paying yourself in dividends is largely a tax avoidance play for most people? A crisis is maybe not the best time for this discussion, but isn’t there an undercurrent of this issue not mentioned in the article?

@amymorton1 Hi Amy. I'm a journalist at the FT and would be keen to get in touch about your son's experience. Could you follow me so I can send you a DM?

Thank you x

My son is isolating after being instructed to do so by track and trace . His employer @Morrisons have phoned him to terminate his contract reason being as he is off sick . Is this how they treat staff how have no other choice but to isolate or face fines if they ignore T&T?

@emmavj Yes. Though I think only as long as you're not also teaming up with another household for informal childcare?

Are you allowed to travel from London to a less restricted place and say drop off a child in a house with their grandparent? Asking for me. Definitely me.

@dan_tomlinson_ @tonywilsonIES I'm told it wasn't that basic! I believe they make contact in writing and rely on people calling them back.

@tonywilsonIES when the ONS made the switch to phone calls were they only using home phone numbers?

October jobs stats: our briefing now online here! employment-studies.co.uk/resource/labou… As per tweets this a.m.: - Employment down by more than we'd thought, now more in line with PAYE data (graph) - Redundancies up sharply - Weak off-flows from benefit - Some signs of improvement in Sept 1/

@NicoleMatues Hi Nicole. I'm a journalist writing about employment at the FT - and keen to talk to someone who can tell me what it's like looking for a marketing role at the moment. If you'd be willing to chat, could you send me a DM?

@TorstenBell Loughrigg?

Sunday lunch

@emmavj Neutrogena

Best cheap rich moisturiser?

@LarisaElenaBuc1 @JeffreeStar Hi Laris - I am a journalist writing about this. Would you be willing to talk on the phone? If so, follow me and I can DM you.

@JeffreeStar Have been made redundant, my husband is not working either. We have money to survive just another 2 weeks, in terms of food. The government in the Uk is not doing anything for the self-employed and I am teriffied of starving to death or being evicted by my landlord. 🙏🏻

So grateful to have my mom back in my life during these crazy times... How is everyone doing tonight?? 🙏🏻 #StarFamily