DerApfelmann

@racetrack275 @astridwilde1 China really starts to flood the market with DDR5 Ram though. Corsair already started buying from them. Consumer Ram is going to come down dramatically in price over the next 2 years. Same as solar and batteries, China will dominate and destroy margins for other Semis

@astridwilde1 Nintendo will really struggle to get any memory from late 2027. This is not a joke. Will need to try and qualify CXMT LPDDR5X. Price will need to go up or margin gets crushed more.

Probably dumb to step in front of a moving train but finally bought back into $NTDOY. $10.50/share simply seemed egregious.

@neilcybart Well, I guess in that case, this whole thing has been some miscommunication.

It’s a really weird thing when some of my followers - and I believe in your case a somewhat longer-term follower, holds such a low opinion of me. Here you are thinking I couldn’t even bother watching the Google I/O keynote. I’m just talking out of the my ass on X after seeing some random X post. When in reality I spent hours watching, analyzing, writing about, rewatching, and writing more about the keynote, and my tweet was written after all of that occurred. And my tweet matches an argument I have been making for a very long time as Google’s onstage decision proves EXACTLY what I have been saying all along. But you think I just tweet randomly out of my ass.

10 years into Pixel smartphones and Google chose to use an iPhone for multiple onstage demos at its I/O developer conference. Just stop the charade already Google.

@bucketshopcap Why is that?

Old enough to remember when there were NVDA earnings parties at NYC bars. Now no one cares.

@KirPinkFury Hope other games, with the exception of Zelda I don’t think those games are fan favorites here. I mean they sure have their fan base but 3D Mario would be getting more attention than all three combined I guess.

Nintendo will be back at Gamescom this year. I wonder what games they will have to demo there? Most likely Fire Emblem Fortune's Weave, Ocarina of Time and Duskbloods. Insane showcase!

@oraclealexx @JoshYoung @GlobalMktObserv Not really sure it is a different issue though. I mean market capitalization isn’t "real" money invested in the market. It’s a propped up figure. Propped up, among other things, by margin debt. And every dollar of margin debt is real.

@DerApfelmannYT @JoshYoung @GlobalMktObserv That’s a different issue. If investors lose confidence, a crash is still possible. Margin debt just looks at one technical factor that could precipitate a crash. No 1929 style crash, the main driver will be something else.

🚨HOLY COW: US margin debt SPIKED $83 BILLION in April, to $1.3 TRILLION, an all-time high. Leveraged borrowing has soared $453 billion, or +53%, over the last year alone. Margin debt now reflects 5.2% of US GDP, also an all-time record. This exceeds any other bubble peak and the meme stock frenzy in 2021. There has never been so much leverage in the stock market.

@oraclealexx @JoshYoung @GlobalMktObserv I agree that everything you said matters. But I think macro matters as well. You can barely see liquidations at P/E of 1 because every disaster is priced in. At a P/E of 50 a drawdown is much more likely, which in turn forces margin calls, which in turn accelerates the drawdown.

@DerApfelmannYT @JoshYoung @GlobalMktObserv These are macro stats…..it really depends on how many hands hold margin debt and what there ratio is, but that data isn’t present. Company leverage is a different thing, and that definitely matters, as that can lead to systemic issues and f big enough companies fall.

@oraclealexx @JoshYoung @GlobalMktObserv I think it might be way more important whether a stock market is overvalued (or undervalued). If all stocks would sell at a P/E of 1 due to a technical glitch for a day, even a 20-30% margin debt would be very reasonable. At a P/E of 100, even 0,5% margin debt would be dangerous

@oraclealexx @JoshYoung @GlobalMktObserv Especially when growth in market cap has been uneven for many smaller banks/creditors for example, this could still mean trouble. And if enough of them collapse even big players might get in trouble. And it also gets more & more expensive for an indebted state to safe those banks

@oraclealexx @JoshYoung @GlobalMktObserv Yeah I agree. So I guess margin debt / market capitalization ratio doesn’t make much sense, debt to asset ratio is more important

@DerApfelmannYT @JoshYoung @GlobalMktObserv When people cite margin size, they forget that market cap is at all time highs. Since the two should be correlated, you really want to know percentage of market cap that is funded by debt, not total debt. $1 debt means little to $100 of assets, but huge if you got $2 in assets.

@JoshYoung @GlobalMktObserv Market cap depends on debt though, so how much sense does it make to compare two corralated phenomena? Seriously asking I haven’t read a study on that, but gut feeling is that it would make much more sense to compare debt to M2 money supply.

@GlobalMktObserv What about margin debt as % of market cap? Or does that not generate a doomy headline?

@daniel_271828 The price for stocks in an AGI event is 0$. There is no need for capital and price signals anymore in an abundant world. If we get AGI, money isn’t worth anything just a couple months later

A corollary: markets still aren’t close to pricing in AGI

Your kids will not work 3.5 days a week or live to 100. They might work much less than 3.5 days, or much more. They might live much longer than 100. They might die in an extinction event. But things won’t be just a bit better than now. Dimon isn’t taking AI seriously enough

@Rickie99_ @sayinshallah Yes I get many people are just trying to get by, but it still is somehow shortsighted to ignore smart people or even call them crazy (I mean it’s not only Musk who says we need to become a multi planetary species).

@DerApfelmannYT @sayinshallah Elon has the power and time to think about that stuff, most people are just trying to get by. I definitely agree with Musk, although I can’t say he’s done great things for our country recently considering his continued support of Trump who’s actually decreasing our chances.

Can someone give me a rundown of the hantavirus? Like is it actually serious like covid or are they doom posting?

@lkw7514 @1goodtern I wonder where people get that from? Like we are speaking of lasting effects on the immune system only in Long Covid patients and severe cases. Most people do not have a compromised immune system. Even many of those that had severe cases with compromised immune system recovered.

@1goodtern Even if the hantavirus didn’t mutate, thanks to Covid there has been worldwide damage to practically everyone’s immune systems since the outbreak in the Andes that the paper was written about in 2018… the conditions of the spread in that paper are not necessarily the same as now

Three things here... 1) This is exactly what I expected them to say: add hantavirus to the list of pathogens that are exactly the same as they were seven years ago but are behaving differently now. 2) No, it hasn't mutated. But *people* are different now. 3) "says France"

@LeePatekar @BrazzyBraz @IanCopeland5 And I think there will be a large defiant reaction this time, especially to lockdowns that weren’t warranted in 2020/21, but might be warranted & necessary in this case. That’s one reason I hated them back in 2021, it was clear they were unnecessary & will cause side effects.

@LeePatekar @BrazzyBraz @IanCopeland5 Both things can be true. The reaction to Covid was asinine from the beginning. Just insanity but I think that has really undermined the public trust in experts. (Rightfully back in the day, but if we get a dangerous pathogen the defiant reaction of the public may come to bite us)

The risk of Hantavirus causing a pandemic are very slim. Not that it matters. You guys aren't gonna take a vaccine or mask/social distance so why get worked up...

@we_are_ssd Covid doesn’t immunocompromise largest part of the infected population. That part is clear fear mongering and unscientific. Agree on the rest. (And if we get an Hanta pandemic it also doesn’t matter if you are immunocompromised or not, nobody is safe.)

Hantavirus is airborne It has a 40% mortality rate. It’s not mild Asymptomatic cases confirmed Incubation period is 8 weeks This doesn’t just affect the elderly and disabled. Even if it did, their lives have value And thanks to COVID, we have an immunocompromised population

@Rickie99_ @sayinshallah That’s the reason why people like Musk want life to become multi planetary. One virus, one atomic warfare and human race quickly ends. Always wondered why people don’t get that, it’s not just a weird idea of some eccentric billionaires.

@sayinshallah The best answer is that nobody really knows, also kinda wild that the human race is a simple mutation away from mass death. Which would be that hantavirus is now airborne or much easier to get, I’d bet money though that it would also mean that this mutation has a lower kill rate

@SherylNYT @By_CJewett Seriously happy for rare disease patients. Not sure if he was bribed or just inept but his statements about certain products were straight asinine.

BREAKING: Marty Makary has resigned under pressure as FDA commissioner. He came in a reformer, but ran afoul of Big Food, Big Pharma, Big Tobacco -- and eventually, the Trump White House. @By_CJewett has the scoop nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/…