Derek Macartney

Bringing compute online is the hard part. Mirantis helps us do it better - strengthening how compute is deployed, managed and operated for customers. $IREN

$BB up 50% since the Q4 print. WSJ had it on the front page yesterday. Is this the next $NOK? > $NVDA. $AMD. $INTC. $ARM. $QCOM. $NXPI. Renesas. $TXN. Every chip vendor that matters in physical compute is partnered with BlackBerry. > Just named foundational software partner for $ARM 's new AGI CPU for physical AI. > BlackBerry's QNX is the operating system that runs underneath 275 million cars. 10 of the top 10 automakers. 24 of 25 top EV makers. > The same OS is now powering Johnson & Johnson's new AI-driven heart pump. The official runtime in NASA's Core Flight System. Inside defense ground vehicles, unmanned platforms, weapons systems. > Royalty model. Revenue compounds with every car, robot, and device that ships. $950M backlog growing faster than it gets recognized. > Secure Comms trusted by NATO and 17 of the G20 governments. Returned to growth for the first time in six years. $3B market cap. Four straight profitable quarters. Stock 96% off the highs. $BB $NOK

$nbis Overlooked amidst recent press releases, co. dropped their 20-F late last week. Some news, confirmatory nuggets, & potential read-through for upcoming earnings: 1. Microsoft Deal: --Upfront prepayment pegged @ ~40% of TCV ($6.95B on $17.39B contact value), which MStanley sees as significantly “higher than expected” and well above crwv’s referenced 15-25% prepayments --Successful delivery of 2nd tranche from Vineland detailed against a 9 tranche delivery schedule; corroboration MS has contracted service-level credit compensation & termination rights 2. DC Strategy & Dev List --Commentary on secured contracts across Europe, Middle East & US 3. Potential Benefits from Higher Pricing --Disclosure of a RPO @ $21.3B (pre-2nd Meta deal), plus a declaration that (outside Meta/Microsoft) “most of our customer engagements to date have relatively short term” implies possible read-through benefit from positive pricing trends --In a note earlier this month, Mstanley marked Nebius's exposure to spot market pricing at its ~550M arr base, suggesting it could lead to near term “outperformance"

For Neoclouds, the biggest news today is that $META is extending even non-AI servers to 6-7 year lifetime. GPUs use an order (10x+) more HBM than CPUs. If CPUs are seeing 6-7 year lifetime, GPUs will see 7-8+ year lifetimes. Adding 2-3 years is going to be pure profit on $IREN, $CRWV, $NBIS bottom line with basically zero incremental capex.

$META is extending the life of some non-AI data center servers from 6 years to 7 as a memory chip shortage creates a “significant server supply deficit.” The shortage is expected to last through 2027, according to internal memos viewed by the Journal.

345kV substation energized at Sweetwater 1. Power first, compute next. $IREN

Sweetwater 1 has been successfully energized – a key milestone in the development of the broader 2GW Sweetwater campus. @danroberts0101, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of $IREN commented: “Delivering Sweetwater 1 substation energization on schedule reflects our disciplined execution, the strength of our supply chain relationships and the efficiency of our vertically integrated development model. It is another example of our ability to design and construct large-scale infrastructure reliably and at speed to meet market demand.” Learn more: iren.gcs-web.com/static-files/d…

Big news: $AAOI has been awarded a $20.9M TSIF grant to expand U.S. manufacturing in Sugar Land, TX. 210,000 sq. ft. of new space. 500+ new jobs. One of the largest U.S. capacity for AI datacenter transceivers. Built in Texas. Read more: aoinc.co/4njn8sN

$IREN VR200 boosts FWD ARR from $3.7B to $5.8B WARNING: Speculative Post NFA DYOR Recent monitoring of $IREN hash rate implies more bitcoin:native ASICs are coming offline and likely will be replaced by GPUs at Childress. Much of my analysis lately focused on the potential of air cooled B300s that require lower retrofit costs and speed up time to compute as $IREN scales ARR, but let's not forget @danroberts0101 loves himself some optionality. Is it possible, for the right price, that Dan would agree with $MSFT to upgrade GB300s to VR200 NVL 72 (the newest bad ass $NVDA GPU that increases output 3.5x and 5x per rack in training and inference respectively)? I linked a post by @FransBakker9812 below describing the ramifications but here's the TLDR; $IREN and $MSFT can upgrade Horizon 3 and 4 from GB300 to VR200 NVL 72 if both parties can mutually agree upon revised terms. Management prudently protected itself from a forced upgrade by $MSFT as both parties need to agree updated pricing in consideration of the higher GPU cost of VR 200 of approximately $122,000 based on a conservative estimate from tomshardware.com $IREN built flexible racks with Rubin always on their mind that could flex from 130 to 200 kw rack densities. Said another way, $IREN can fit the same number of Rubins as GB300s despite the higher power draw due to the flex design and purposely used fewer GB300s. Knowing all that; check out my analysis below and here are the highlights: 1) Breakeven Scenario - $iren charges $3.95/hr to recoup the cap ex increases from substitution 2) Constant Margin - Assuming the same Gross Margin % of 40.2% the hourly rate increases to $4.67/hr. I find this case the most likely and it would increase ARR by $595m for H3-4 and $1.566B if $iren gets $msft to agree to H5-6 (part of the initial plan before air cooled discussions) 3) Margin pickup - This scenario increases gross margin % to 44.2% and has potential to come to fruition as execution risk is gone after imminent H1 completion and compute remains hard to find, especially liquid cooled according to @kentpdraper. Finally, consider $IREN current guidance of $3.7B ARR, the incremental revenue from substitution at 3-4 as well as the Horizon 5-6 expansion at $4.67 per hour would result in increases of $595m and $1.566B respectively. 3.7B+0.595B+1.566B=$5.861B Assuming $IREN can secure supply from $NVDA than argument for moving forward with VR 200 and liquid cooled DCs can be justified assuming higher prices but also an understanding that the new data center life will extend at least 15-20 years beyond the initial contract and avoid a future upgrade cycle following the obsolescence of the B300. h/t @_Sgr_A_Star @Agrippa_Inv for contributions

Where power becomes intelligence. NVIDIA GB300s arriving at Childress for our Microsoft Horizon deployment. Big effort from the team. $IREN

@cyrilXBT Claude

I spent 6 months learning Claude Code the hard way. Every mistake. Every workflow that did not work. Every prompt I had to rewrite 10 times before it clicked. I turned all of it into a free masterclass: THE CLAUDE CODE MASTERCLASS. Zero to shipping your first project alone. No CS degree. No team. No guesswork. Inside you get: - The reframe that changes how you use Claude Code forever - The CLAUDE .md template that makes every session 10x more powerful - The 4-layer prompt architecture that scales to any project - MCP server setup nobody is teaching yet - The 6-phase sequence to go from idea to deployed in a weekend - 10 ready-to-run workflows you can copy right now The people who read this tonight will be building things next week that most developers still cannot do with a team. I should be charging $199 for this. It is free. Comment CLAUDE and I will send it to you directly. RT if you know someone who needs to see this.

$MU Holy Shit Micron will generate more revenue next quarter ($33.5B) than $AMD, $ASML, $AMAT, and $SNDK combined ($31.5B). Their combined market cap is $1.92T. $MU sits at $0.55T with 81% margin guided. Same output. Four times cheaper. You do the math.

JUST IN: MICROSOFT TO INVEST $18 BILLION IN AUSTRALIA FOR AI COMPUTE & INFRASTRUCTURE $MSFT 🇦🇺

@CipherInc started in my attic almost six years ago. Yesterday, the team signed the last piece of steel to be hung at Barber Lake. Just another milestone (on schedule!) along the way. Never ever ever bet against this team. $CIFR

BREAKING: Today, we pulled the plug on vibe coding. I just witnessed my Mac erase a $31B company in 184 seconds. This is beyond absurd.

@shipper_now Shipper

It’s still pretty incredible $HIMS is down 44% even after: 1. $NVO de-risking + partnership 2. Multiple global acquisitions expanding DTC distribution network 3. Peptide arc, with Huberman saying HIMS was set to soar under these conditions 4. Entering a friendlier macro climate. 5. Short interest reaching unsustainable 36%+ The good news is: short interest can only be so much of the float… So it’s inherent buying pressure to cover over time, which does limit downside if fundamentals improves.

$AAOI is expansionmaxxing. Don’t short the optical networking names. CC: @CitronResearch Applied Optoelectronics announced plans to expand its Houston-area footprint through the addition of two adjacent buildings in Pearland, Texas, adding approximately 388,000 square feet of manufacturing capacity. The expansion builds on AOI's existing U.S. operations, which include a 210,000-square-foot manufacturing facility currently under development near its Sugar Land headquarters, where the company operates 135,000 square feet of capacity, as well as a recently leased 154,000-square-foot building at Blue Ridge Commerce Center.

Quietly rising while everyone is only watching optics 🤫

"With 2027 allocation now complete, Micron is currently in discussions with key customers regarding 2028 supply volumes and pricing terms." Well, well, well...