Devarsh Vakil

*Strong Corporate Earnings and Drop in Crude Oil Prices Drive Wall Street to Record Highs* U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. would *pause operations* aimed at restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, signalling that *a deal with Iran could be nearing*. However, the naval blockade against Iran will remain in place. *Oil prices* fell after President Trump signalled a pause in the U.S. operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, *raising hopes for a possible diplomatic deal with Iran.* U.S. equity markets rallied on Tuesday, with the *S&P 500* and *Nasdaq* Composite both *closing at all-time highs*. Investor sentiment was bolstered by a 4% decline in Brent crude oil prices, allowing the market to pivot from geopolitical concerns to strong corporate performance. The S&P 500 rose 0.81%, hitting a new all-time high and closing at a record of 7259. The Nasdaq gained 1.03%, touching a new high and closing at a record 25,326. The Dow added 356 points, or 0.73%, to end at 49298. The *chipmaking* industry provided a significant lift to broader benchmarks, driven by *Micron*'s double-digit surge following the launch of high-capacity storage products. Additional strength came from *Intel hitting an all-time high*. *Advanced Micro Devices* reported Q1 earnings and guidance that topped Wall Street estimates, driven by a 57% surge in data centre revenue as demand for AI infrastructure accelerated. *Alphabet* shares rose 2% in after-hours trading following reports that AI startup Anthropic committed to a massive spending deal on Google Cloud infrastructure. The news reinforced Alphabet's position as a key player in the AI cloud arms race, complementing broader strength in the tech sector. Approximately 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported their first-quarter results, with an impressive 84% exceeding earnings estimates. This performance is notably higher than long-term averages, with mega-cap technology firms like Alphabet and Amazon contributing significantly to the index's growth rate. The blended yoy earnings *growth rate* for Q1 2026 reached *27.1%* as the quarter progressed, a sharp increase from the initial estimate of 13.1% at the start. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. The U.S. labour market showed signs of recovery. *Job openings eased* marginally in March, but hiring rose sharply to 5.55 million, the highest level since February 2024, indicating improving labour demand. U.S. *services activity slowed* modestly in April, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI easing to 53.6 from 54.0 in March, as businesses continued to flag concerns around rising energy-related costs. The *Asian indices opened higher* today, tracking Wall Street gains overnight after oil prices dropped and strong earnings lifted investor sentiment. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 4.50% to scale a new peak, building on its more than 70% gains this year so far. The *Indian rupee weakened further*, hitting a fresh record low amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, raising concerns about a global inflationary surge. Elevated crude oil prices, coupled with risk aversion, have intensified fears of a widening Balance of Payments deficit. Persistent capital outflows and a cautious central bank stance have added to the pressure. The *Union Cabinet cleared an emergency credit guarantee scheme* for aviation and MSMEs, along with a higher sugarcane price for 2026–27 and a ₹5,659 crore cotton productivity mission. The scheme provides additional working capital support, backed by government guarantees through the National Credit Guarantee Trustee Company Limited. *Nifty* extended its alternating pattern of one-day gains followed by declines, slipping 86 points to close at *24032* after yesterday’s up move Nifty has been *consolidating* around 24180 over the *past six trading sessions*. Immediate support remains at *23800*, while *24334* and *24600* are likely to act as short-term resistance levels. *Indian markets are likely to open higher on strong US and Asian market cues.*

*Markets brace for Mag 7 Earnings, higher Oil prices & Fed interest rates deliberations* The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at *fresh records* on April 27, lifted by Nvidia and Alphabet, though the Dow logged a third straight loss. Consumer staples and discretionary shares lagged; Domino's Pizza was among the session's worst performers after cutting its U.S. same-store sales outlook and reporting a Q1 revenue decline. A data-heavy week features *Q1 earnings from five of the Magnificent Seven — including Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple* — representing a combined ~$18.59 trillion in market cap. Visa, Coca-Cola, and roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies also report. The *FOMC* meets April 28–29 (decision Wednesday), with rates widely expected on hold amid ongoing debate over Fed Chair succession, as Kevin Warsh pursues Senate confirmation to succeed Jerome Powell. Key macro releases include Q1 GDP (advance), Core PCE, durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and housing starts. The Bank of England also decides this week. *Brent crude* approached $108/bbl; WTI traded above $96. Iran's near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced daily transits to near zero, choking roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows and stoking inflation fears. Iran has offered to reopen the strait contingent on the U.S. lifting its blockade — a proposal President Trump is unlikely to accept without a halt to Iran's nuclear programme. *Cancellation of high-level diplomatic visits further dimmed prospects for a near-term resolution.* Nvidia and Qualcomm outperformed on continued enthusiasm around AI infrastructure buildout, new AI chip collaborations, and record chip-sector valuations. *Nifty 50* snapped a three-session losing streak, gaining 194 points to close at 24,092. Immediate support sits at *23,800*; resistances are placed at 24,200 and 24,310. GIFT Nifty is suggesting *a cautious open* on today's April F&O expiry. *Devarsh Vakil (HSL Prime Research)*

#WATCH | Mumbai: On US President Trump's Address to the Nation on Iran war & its potential impact on Indian market, Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research, HDFC Securities says, "...He declared that the US military objectives are nearly complete but it will take about 2-3 weeks. Assuming that what he has started to achieve, he will try to finish that in next 2-3 weeks. So, that had an impact on energy, crude oil prices jumped 4%...Asian as well as Indian markets are trading down. Escalating hostilities have again put geopolitics at the forefront of the markets...Investors are unsettled and because of that, we are seeing selling across the asset classes. Energy is the most immediate means of transmission...We are a crude-importing nation. So, that is the main vulnerability for Indian economy. I think because of this input cost to the economy and in a macro sense, the current account deficit will widen and that is putting pressure on domestic inflation...The Strait of Hormuz disruption is one of the most significant shocks to the global economy in recent times...Investors who are waiting for valuations to come down, who are waiting for the goods entry point, I think now there is an opportunity to accumulate quality ideas because valuations have come down. Before this war started, we were assuming about around 16% earning growth. Now those earning growth will be downgraded but we assume that it will be around 12% or so. Assuming 12% of growth, we are now trading quite attractively and next year building around 17-18 times forward earnings. Assuming that these hostilities do get over in next 2-3 weeks, we will expect crude oil prices to come down and the resumption of trade through Hormuz will start. Once that happens, there will be less pressure on Rupee..."

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Beginning of the End of War?* *Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu* said that Israel is supporting U.S. efforts *to reopen the Strait*, would not strike Iranian oil and gas targets again, and that the war could end *sooner than expected.* His *"verge of victory"* remarks lifted risk assets as markets priced in a shorter conflict — though *volatility persisted*, with reports of renewed Iranian missile launches emerging even as he spoke. U.S. stocks *closed lower* on Thursday, but *recovered sharply from session lows* following Israel's pledge to halt strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and President Trump's confirmation that there would be no ground troop deployments. Equity futures edged higher Thursday night on the back of Netanyahu's remarks. *U.S. oil prices* extended their decline after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled that Washington may soon lift sanctions on Iranian crude held aboard tankers, aiming to relieve price pressures following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In a joint statement, the *U.S., Britain, Canada, France, Germany, and Japan* affirmed their readiness to help ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets remained under pressure as investors weighed *a hawkish Federal Reserve* against ongoing tensions in the Gulf region. Assets sold off broadly — bonds, equities, and metals — as tit-for-tat strikes on regional energy infrastructure drove prices sharply higher. After three sessions of pullback, the Nifty resumed its downtrend, *plunging 775 points* (3.26%) to close at 23002 yesterday — its steepest single-session drop in percentage terms since April 7, 2025. *As anticipated in yesterday's commentary, the Nifty found support at the lower end of the 22,923–23,207 band — and is now poised to rebound toward the upper end today.*

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Escalating Middle East Tensions, Stagflation Fears Grips Global Markets* *Crude Oil surged* after Iran struck Middle East energy facilities in retaliation for an Israeli attack on South Pars gas field. *Iran declared Gulf energy assets "legitimate targets," pushing Brent well past $110/bbl, WTI near to ~$100/bbl, and U.S. natural gas up ~5%.* Elevated risk premia threaten sustained imported inflation, wider current account deficits in energy importers like India, and cross-asset volatility. *A 60-day Jones Act waiver was announced to ease domestic fuel movement, though its global impact is limited.* *Iranian missiles caused "extensive damage" at Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City. Saudi Arabia intercepted four ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh and neutralized a drone attack on an eastern gas facility.* *U.S. stock benchmarks closed at their lowest levels of 2026* on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged over 750 points, as investors digested the Fed's revised inflation projections and hawkish tone. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 1.4% and 1.5% respectively, wiping out the week's earlier gains. Global equities extended their decline, with rising crude prices and a U.S. inflation reading adding further pressure. *The U.S. Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, projecting higher inflation, stable unemployment, and a single rate cut this year — an outlook Fed Chair Jerome Powell called subject to "unusually high uncertainty" amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.* Following an 11-1 vote to maintain the benchmark rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range, Powell acknowledged that inflation progress has been slower than expected.The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections signalled just a quarter-point rate cut by year-end — with no indication of timing — while its year-end inflation forecast was revised up to 2.7% from 2.4% in December.The Bank of Canada similarly held rates, with both central banks signalling vigilance against an energy-driven inflation resurgence. US Treasury yields spiked, 10-year to 4.256%, 2-year to 3.741%, on a hot PPI print and hawkish Fed signals, sharpening stagflation concerns. *The Indian rupee hit a record low, breaching 92.50 amid thin dollar liquidity ahead of a bank holiday today. Aggressive importer demand triggered a sharp sell-off.* *Indian markets are set to open sharply lower today, pressured by escalating tensions in West Asia and surging Brent crude prices amid supply disruption fears. The Fed's hawkish stance in its latest meeting, indicating fewer rate cuts, adds to the global risk-off sentiment, dragging down equities.* *Amid the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, President Trump has directed Israel to halt further strikes on Iranian on the South Pars gas field. Any signs of de-escalation in the West Asian crisis could help cushion the impact on global equity markets.* *The Nifty drew support from the gap band of 22,923–23,207 earlier this week, and that same zone is expected to remain relevant today as well.*

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Stocks surge on crude oil pullback* *Stocks rebounded sharply on Monday after several consecutive sessions of notable losses, with all major averages closing higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the advance.* The indexes finished off their intraday highs but remained strongly positive. The *Nasdaq* surged 268 points, or 1.2%, to 22,374; the *S&P 500* jumped 67 points, or 1%, to 6,699; and the *Dow* advanced 387 points, or 0.8%, to 46946. *It was the market's strongest session since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran. Easing oil prices reduced immediate concerns over energy-driven inflation and its drag on economic growth.* The *technology and travel* sectors led broad gains. *Norwegian Cruise* Line rose 5%, and *United Airlines* climbed 4%, both benefiting from lower fuel costs. Semiconductor stocks were among the session's standout performers in the technology sector. *NVIDIA and Micron* posted notable gains as investors reassessed geopolitical risks to global supply chains and demand for digital infrastructure. *The surge in crude prices this month is likely to shift the inflation outlook and lead most central banks to hold rates steady at their policy meetings this ​week.* The *Federal Reserve* opened its *March 17–18* policy meeting today, with markets broadly *expecting rates to hold* at 3.50–3.75%. Investor focus is on the updated dot plot, as energy-driven inflation has *reduced 2026 rate-cut expectations from three to one*. *Nifty snapped a three-day losing streak in a session defined by extreme volatility.* *Having corrected nearly 13% from its all-time high*, Nifty found support in the gap band of 22,923–23,207, *setting the stage for a potential pullback rally.* This rebound was driven by bargain hunting in heavyweights across the banking, auto, and FMCG sectors, despite ongoing volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions in West Asia. On the upside, *23,700* emerges as *a key resistance* to monitor. A decisive break below *22,923* would signal *a resumption of the downtrend*. *Indian equity markets are set to open on a firm note, supported by favourable global cues.* *Foreign investors are sitting on sizable short positions, and any unwinding of those bets could trigger a short-term rally.*

*Simmering West Asia Crisis Rattle Global Markets* *Iran conflict's potential to trigger a prolonged global energy shock rattled markets. Treasury yields surged alongside oil, raising concerns about overheating across market segments including private credit and AI-related investments.* US Markets *drifted on Wednesday*, extending the prior session's lacklustre tone. Major indexes closed mixed for the second consecutive session: the Nasdaq edged up 19 points to 22,716, the S&P 500 slipped 5 points to 6775, and the Dow slid 289 points to 47417. *US Index Futures deepened their losses* late Wednesday as oil extended its surge in after-hours trading. Dow futures fell further 500 points (nearly 1%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each dropped 0.9%. *Oracle posted its strongest quarter in over 15 years.* Total cloud revenue rose 44% year-over-year to $8.9 billion, and cloud infrastructure revenue surged 84% to $4.9 billion, driven by AI training and inferencing demand. The company raised its fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion and reported remaining performance obligations of $553 billion — up 325% year-over-year — reflecting contracted AI infrastructure demand anchored by its $300 billion Stargate deal with OpenAI. The Bureau of Labour Statistics reported *February CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month* and 2.4% year-over-year, both in line with forecasts. Core inflation came in at 2.5% annually, also matching expectations. Economists cautioned, however, that the reading is backward-looking: *the Iran-driven oil shock has since materially altered the inflation trajectory*, with food and fertilizer prices also under pressure. *U.S. crude jumped to $95 a barrel*, extending an overnight gain, while *Brent crude surged to $100 a barrel*. Prices spiked after several *commercial vessels were attacked* off Iran's coast, severely disrupting tanker and cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has effectively halted transit through the strait, removing roughly 20 million barrels per day from global supply. The *IEA coordinated a historic release of up to 400 million barrels* from strategic reserves — dwarfing the 182 million barrels released after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and with the *U.S. committing 172 million* barrels beginning next week. All 32 IEA member nations voted unanimously in favour. This measure offers only temporary relief, and only genuine military de-escalation can sustainably reduce prices. *Asian shares fell* Thursday as reports of additional vessel strikes in the Strait of Hormuz and Iraqi waters sent oil prices higher, fanning inflation fears and pushing borrowing costs up globally. Nifty *resumed its downtrend*, shedding 395 points or 1.63% to close at 23866 yesterday, its weakest closing since April 17, 2025, underscoring rising uncertainty in Indian equities. *Support for the Nifty is placed at 23,697* and *23500*. Upside resistance clusters in the *24,200 – 24,300* band. *Indian equity markets are set for a sharply lower open as surging crude oil prices weigh on sentiment.*

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Respite for Markets on Hopes of Diplomacy* U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday after a news report indicating that *Iran had signalled openness to diplomatic talks*, combined with President Donald Trump's pledge to *stabilise oil markets*, easing investor anxiety over *the escalating Middle East conflict.* Investors rotated back into technology shares, lifting the *Nasdaq* 1.29% and keeping the index in positive territory since the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran that ignited the conflict. The *S&P 500* held close to its all-time closing high set in January, further supported by encouraging U.S. economic data. On the economic front, *payroll processor ADP* reported that private-sector employment rose by more than expected in February, with 63,000 jobs added — a sharp rebound from the downwardly revised gain of 11,000 jobs in January. In currency markets, the *People's Bank of China* set its official yuan midpoint at 6.9007 against the dollar on Thursday — 117 pips, or 0.07%, stronger than the previous fixing and the firmest level in 34 months — a move markets interpreted as an effort to stabilise the currency. Separately, Beijing set its economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5%–5%, a modest step down from last year's 5% pace, leaving room to address industrial overcapacity and rebalance the economy without committing to sweeping reform. *Gold* rose on Thursday as widening Middle East tensions drove demand for safe-haven assets, with a softer dollar providing additional support to bullion. The metal traded around $ 5150, holding near record levels, as the U.S.-Iran standoff kept investor caution elevated. *The dollar*, after its recent sharp rally, paused on Thursday — offering temporary relief to a battered euro, as investors held to tentative hopes that the conflict may prove shorter-lived than initially feared. *Crude oil* surged 2.80% to $76.75, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed and disrupting roughly 20% of global oil supply. Broader Asian equities tracked U.S. gains as sentiment steadied following the initial shock of the Iran conflict. South Korea's Kospi Index rebounded more than 10% after its worst-ever single-session crash, in which it shed over 12% the prior day. *Indian equity markets are poised to open on a positive note today on the back of conducive global cues. On any rebound, the 24,600–24,800 range stands as a formidable overhead barrier.*

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Nasdaq Pulls Back Sharply as Nvidia Slumps, but Dow Inches Higher.* The benchmark *S&P 500 and European equities finished lower* as investors digested another blowout quarter from Nvidia — the world's most valuable company — yet remained uneasy about its valuation even as the chipmaker forecast first-quarter revenue of $78 billion. The retreat on *Wall Street was driven largely by a negative reaction to Nvidia's earnings*, with the AI chipmaker tumbling 5.5%. Despite reporting better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results and issuing upbeat guidance, Nvidia failed to satisfy elevated investor expectations, dragging semiconductor stocks lower and souring broader market sentiment. The *Dow's modest gain* was cushioned by a sharp rise in *Salesforce* shares, which surged 4% after the customer relationship software maker reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. *Diminishing case for an early easing* The path for Federal Reserve chair nominee *Kevin Warsh* to deliver the swift rate cuts President Donald Trump has called for appears to be narrowing. Emerging economic resilience — rising CEO confidence, investor positioning around *a hawkish shift among Fed policymakers* — is complicating the case for early easing. The *IMF* reinforced this view on Wednesday, noting that with U.S. growth expected to reach 2.4% this year from 2.2% last year, unemployment hovering near 4%, and inflation declining gradually, the Fed would have "only modest scope to lower the policy rate over the coming year" — likely just a single quarter-percentage-point cut. *Tech heavy asian indices fell in tandem with the NASDAQ* A global equity index retreated after touching a record high on Thursday, as lofty technology valuations weighed on sentiment following Nvidia's results. In currency markets, the *US Dollar Index recovered* to 97.9, with the greenback gaining 0.5% against the British pound amid speculation of *a March Bank of England rate cut* Tech-heavy indices in *Japan and South Korea fell* in tandem with the Nasdaq, reflecting deepening concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally. *Nifty* spent yesterday's session within a narrow 170-point range throughout the day, with low volatility, barring a couple of intraday swings. Nifty remained *directionless*, with *no momentum on either side*. A band of *25650-25700* would remain an immediate hurdle, while *25250-25350* could offer support for Nifty in the short term. A breakout from this range could finally provide the catalyst for a sustained move. *Indian markets are poised to open subdued on softer global cues.*

Markets signalling a broader base for upside, says Devarsh Vakil of HDFC Sec livemint.com/market/stock-m… Download mint app for latest in Business News - bit.ly/32XEfFE

*HSL Prime Research* *Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *AI Winners and Losers Take Centre Stage as FOMC Stays Cautious, Nifty Eyes 26,000.* *U.S. stocks rallied, European stocks notched a record closing high, and crude oil rebounded on Wednesday as investors parsed the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes and weighed evolving geopolitical developments.* US Equities surged at the open before fading through the session, with major averages pulling back well off their highs but still closing firmly in positive territory. The *Nasdaq* rose 1.07%, lifted by *Nvidia* after the chipmaker announced a multi-year, multi-generational strategic partnership with *Meta* spanning on-premises, cloud, and AI infrastructure — including large-scale deployment of Nvidia *CPUs and millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs*. *Adobe slid 26%* year-to-date amid mounting Wall Street scepticism over whether its creative software can withstand *competition from generative AI*. Enterprise software also weighed on the market, with *Palo Alto Networks* dropping 6.2% after *cutting its annual profit guidance* due to acquisition costs. The broader software selloff reflects investor concern *that generative AI will disintermediate traditional workflows faster than legacy providers can adapt, even as many maintain strong margins.* *Fed minutes* showed policymakers were *near-unanimous in holding rates* at their last meeting but remained divided on next steps. Several members left the door open to hikes if inflation stays elevated; others leaned toward further cuts if inflation recedes as expected. *The full committee also grappled with the emerging economic implications of artificial intelligence.* *The dollar* firmed on the back of those minutes, with the U.S. Dollar Index surging to 97.70 — a one-week high. EUR/USD fell to 1.1790 as speculative net long positions in the euro reached 180,300 contracts, the highest since September 2020, even as short positions climbed to levels last seen in May 2023. *Crude oil* surged to $64, driven by reports of U.S. military mobilisation toward potential Iran operations. The move above $60 represented a meaningful break from recent consolidation. *Asian* equities rose today, buoyed by Wall Street's tech gains, while lingering U.S.-Iran tensions kept oil prices supported and safe-haven demand underpinned gold. *The Nifty extended its winning streak to a third session yesterday*, gaining 93 points to close at 25819. *Nifty is trading comfortably above its key average, with trend and momentum both pointing higher.* The next resistance is near *26000*, beyond which the index could reach its *all-time high*. Meanwhile, strong support lies at the 20-day EMA placed at *25660*. *Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher in line with positive global cues.*

**Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Dow at New All-Time High; Broad-Based Rally Lifts Indian Markets* *World stocks rallied* on Monday, propelled by *optimism over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's thumping election win* and a tech rebound, while the dollar slumped amid reports that China has advised financial institutions to curb exposure to U.S. bonds. *U.S. stocks* moved mostly *higher* over the course of the trading day on Monday, extending the strong upward move seen in last Friday's session. The *Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new all-time high* of 50135, rising modestly as markets recovered from last week's volatility. The S&P 500 climbed 0.5%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.9%, with technology stocks powering the rally. *Oracle jumped 9.6%* after an upgrade, while AppLovin soared over 13% following a retraction of critical allegations. The Information Technology sector gained 1.4%, leading the S&P 500 higher as investors returned to beaten-down software names. Investors await delayed *January employment data* on Wednesday and CPI inflation figures on Friday. The data releases will provide crucial guidance on Federal Reserve interest rate policy for the remainder of 2026. The monthly job report is expected to show employment climbed by 70,000 jobs in January after rising by 50,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4 per cent. *Oil prices* eased slightly on Tuesday as traders gauged the potential for supply disruptions, following U.S. guidance on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz that kept attention squarely on tensions between Washington and Tehran. *Nifty* kicked off the week strongly, *surging 173 points* to close at *25867*. It staged a 100-point recovery from the day's low after early profit booking, signalling clear bull control as it ended near the session high. Short-term resistance looms near *26000*; a break above could propel it toward fresh all-time highs beyond *26373*. On the downside, the *25450–25500* zone remains a strong support. *Indian markets are positioned to open higher on conducive global cues.* *Devarsh Vakil (HSL Prime Research)*

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Japan Elections: Takaichi's Landslide Victory to Reshape Global Markets* *Sanae Takaichi*'s Liberal Democratic Party won a decisive 328 of 465 seats on February 8, 2026, triggering the *"Takaichi Trade"* as Japan abandons its traditional low-interest-rate policy. Her *"Sanaenomics Reloaded"* strategy emphasises aggressive fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, and substantial state funding for semiconductors, AI, and defence sectors. *Japanese markets are surging with the Nikkei reaching record highs, particularly benefiting defence, semiconductor, and robotics companies under the weak-yen bias.* *Indian equities stand to gain as Japanese capital pivots away from China under Takaichi's "Economic Security" policy, with billions in FDI expected to flow into Indian infrastructure and technology sectors.* *INDO-US TRADE DEAL – India Breaks Free from Trump's Tariff Wall* The US and India reached an interim trade agreement ending their ten-month tariff war, with the *US reducing tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%* as of February 6, 2026. India *successfully protected sensitive agricultural sectors* like dairy while committing to purchase $500 billion in US goods over five years, focusing on energy, aircraft, and defence technology. The deal strategically integrates India into the US-led *"Pax Silica"* initiative for critical minerals and AI supply chains, positioning India as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific. *Export-oriented sectors like textiles, auto components, and pharmaceuticals are expected to benefit significantly, with improved market sentiment likely to stabilise the Rupee and boost FDI inflows.* *MPC signals the end of falling rates* The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the *repo rate unchanged* at 5.25%, following cumulative rate cuts of 125 basis points in 2025, indicating that the easing cycle has concluded. The MPC projects India's GDP growth at 7.4% for FY26, supported by domestic consumption and investment, though future policy decisions will remain data-driven and dependent on inflation and growth trends. *Market Outlook* After one session of pause, Nifty resumed its uptrend, gaining 50 points to close at 25,693 on Friday. The underlying trend of Nifty remains positive. A *decisive move above 25800* could bring bulls into action towards the upside target of *26000* and the next *26350* levels in the near term. *Indian markets are positioned to open decisively higher on conducive global cues.*

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *We Have A Deal!* *Markets are likely to surge nearly 3% higher on open* *India and the United States* have agreed to *a trade agreement* under which reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods will be slashed to 18% from 25%, and the additional 25% duty on purchases of Russian crude oil will be eliminated. The trade deal will be *" effective immediately"*, President Donald Trump said, following a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi late Monday, offering immediate tariff relief for India. *Lower Than Most Regional Peers* At 18%, India's tariff rate is now lower than that of several major export-oriented Asian economies. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Vietnam face tariffs of 20%, while Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Pakistan face tariffs of 19%. Cambodia also faces a higher tariff burden at 19%. The deal includes the rollback of US tariffs on India from 50% to just 18%, a commitment from India to increase US imports by $500 billion, and a reduction in dependence on Russian oil. The trade deal is likely to stabilise the rupee and ease pressure on domestic interest rates. Labour-intensive sectors such as *textiles, gems and jewellery, and engineering goods* are the clear winners, as all faced growth headwinds due to higher tariffs. India will have to *move away from Russian crude oil* in favour of imports from the US and Venezuela, following the removal of Russian oil-related penalties Indian equity markets are expected to *surge 3% on open* as the deal completely *eliminates key policy uncertainties.* The positive sentiment could trigger immediate *foreign capital inflows*, potentially turning India's *Balance of Payments (BoP)* position. *This positive surprise will force many participants, including FPIs who are heavily short in the market, to cover their positions, which should lead to a sharp surge across indices and derivative stocks in today's session.*

Budget 2026-27: Sound math fails to meet soaring market expectations business-standard.com/markets/news/b…*

*HSL Prime Research* *Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Fed Holds Rates Steady - Attention Turns to Union Budget* Major U.S. stock indexes *closed largely flat* on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. After initial gains, the major indexes pulled back and traded near unchanged levels for most of the session, eventually ending narrowly mixed. The *S&P 500* briefly surpassed *7,000* for the first time during morning trading. The *Nasdaq* gained 0.91%, driven by semiconductor strength following *ASML's record orders*, *Texas Instruments'* strong guidance, and optimism around sustained AI infrastructure spending. The *Federal Reserve held interest rates* steady at 3.50% to 3.75% following three consecutive quarter-point cuts. Chair *Jerome Powell* described the economy as solid, with diminished risks to both inflation and employment, signalling that the central bank will likely remain on hold, with inflation still somewhat elevated. The *U.S. Dollar Index* recovered to 96.18 on January 29 after hitting four-year lows near 95.50, following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's reaffirmation of a strong dollar policy. The dollar has weakened 10.78% over the past year amid tariff concerns, geopolitical uncertainties, and President Trump's comments accepting currency weakness. The *euro reached $1.20* for the first time since 2021, marking a 13% gain in 2025, supported by European fiscal stimulus, particularly from Germany, and by reduced reliance on the dollar. *WTI crude* oil rose 0.87% to $63.76, reaching four-month highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions after President Trump warned Iran to negotiate, with additional support from a weaker dollar and winter weather. *Gold* reached an all-time high above $5,300 per ounce with a record single-day gain of $221.70, while silver surged to $116.48, up 277% year-over-year, driven by dollar weakness, geopolitical tensions with Iran, and safe-haven demand. *Nifty* extended gains for the *second consecutive session*, rising 167 points (0.66%) to close at 25,342. The *short-term* trend has turned *positive*, as Nifty has crossed its 5-day EMA at *25270*. To maintain this bullish bias, the index must hold the recent swing low of *24,932*. Immediate resistance is placed at *25,435*, followed by positional 50DEMA resistance at *25,725*. *Indian markets are positioned to open modestly lower on cautious global cues.*

*HSL Prime Research* *Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Trump's Tariff Retreat Sparks Wall-Street Rally.* US stocks rallied for *a second consecutive day* on Thursday after President Trump backed away from threats of tariffs on Europe, easing geopolitical tensions. The S&P 500 rose 1.16% to 6,875.62, the Dow gained 1.21% to 49,077.23, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.18% to 23,224.82. The market rebound accelerated after Trump announced *a framework deal with NATO on Greenland* and the Arctic region. Trump ruled out the use of military force to acquire Greenland during a Wednesday speech, signalling a softer diplomatic approach to the territory. Following his preliminary agreement with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump *withdrew threats* to impose sanctions on European countries that had opposed his plans for Greenland. The *détente marked a sharp reversal* from his earlier confrontational stance toward European allies. *Intel plunged over 10%* in after-hours trading following disappointing forward guidance, erasing gains from Wednesday's nearly 12% rally. The chipmaker had surged to four-year highs after Nvidia's $5 billion investment and a US government stake, but weak outlook tempered enthusiasm despite optimism around new server chips and foundry expansion. The *US Dollar Index fell* 0.41% to 98.37, marking its *largest one-day decline in a month*, despite upward GDP revisions to 4.4% from 4.3% and jobless claims beating expectations at 200K versus 212K forecast. *Dovish Fed expectations* and concerns over potential political interference in central bank independence weighed on the greenback. *Natural gas* futures surged over 12% to $5.48 per MMBtu, nearing December 2022 levels, as extreme cold weather forecasts through early February threaten to drive heating demand to near-record levels. The commodity is tracking toward a weekly gain of more than 70%, the largest since 1990. *Nifty* halted its *three-session slide*, rebounding *132 points to close at 25,289* after a volatile session that tested key technical levels. The index gapped up 187 points at open and held firm for the first 45 minutes before reversing post-10 AM, plunging 267 points to 25,168, finding support precisely at the 200DEMA (25,164) for a sharp 164 point rebound in the final hour. The *Indian rupee broke its losing streak*, appreciating 6 paise against the greenback to close at 91.63 yesterday. The currency stabilised as global risk appetite improved following US President Trump’s withdrawal of tariff threats against Europe. Short-term resistance remains entrenched at *25450-25500*, while support has shifted higher to *25,150* near the 200DEMA confluence. *The Indian markets will be closed on Monday, January 26, 2026, for Republic Day.* *Indian benchmark indices are poised to open marginally lower today, testing resilience as investors monitor whether key indices can find support at near-term levels.*

*HSL Prime Research* *Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Wall Street Surges on Trump's Dovish Davos Turn* Wall Street surged on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 posting its largest one-day gain in two months after President Trump announced *a framework agreement on Greenland* and cancelled planned tariffs for February 1st on European nations. Major indices rallied sharply: the *Dow jumped* 588 points (1.2%), while the *S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose 1.2%*, reversing Tuesday's worst selloff since October. The rebound followed Trump's Davos remarks, ruling out military force against Greenland and scrapping threatened European tariffs. Markets *removed the tail risk* of U.S.-NATO confrontation. The dollar strengthened while Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year note declining to 4.25%. *The European Union's legislative body halted work on the formal approval and implementation of the trade deal it reached last summer with President Donald Trump.* *Gold retreated* from its record high of $4,887 per ounce to around $4,840 as geopolitical tensions eased, though the precious metal remains up 8.59% month over month and 75.18% year over year. *Silver dropped* 1.6% as risk appetite returned to equities. *Netflix* plunged in after-hours trading despite beating Q4 revenue and earnings expectations. Investors focused on slowing subscriber growth and weak forward guidance, overlooking the company's 325 million subscriber milestone. Netflix also announced it would pause buybacks to finance its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. The *Indian Rupee* fell 72 paise to a record low of 91.69 against the US Dollar yesterday—its steepest single-day decline in two months. The currency faces pressure from *aggressive foreign capital outflows* and delays in a U.S. trade deal, while heightened geopolitical uncertainty continues to accelerate depreciation despite central bank interventions. Nifty declined for *a third consecutive session*, dropping 75 points to close at 25,157. The index held above its 200-day SMA (25,124), with yesterday's low of 24,919 now serving as support. The 25,470-25,500 band will continue to act as strong resistance. *Indian equity markets are poised to open on a positive note, buoyed by robust global sentiment and growing optimism surrounding a potential India-US trade agreement.*