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Simjo | Blacksands Trading
1.1K posts
Simjo | Blacksands Trading
@DevilOfHaven
Daily Fundamental Analyst 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 I read the market so you don't have to. $PLTR $MU $SOFI $ASTS · $BTC · Macro Follow for setups that actually make sense ↓
Katılım Haziran 2010
544 Takip Edilen822 Takipçiler
China's biggest chip IPO ever lists Monday. Aimed straight at the three companies that control 90% of the world's memory.
CXMT prices at 8.66 yuan $1.28 on Shanghai's STAR Market July 27. Raising $8.5B, $9.8B with the overallotment. Valuation ~$85B.
Largest Chinese semiconductor listing on record. Biggest IPO in Asia this year.
9.43 million retail accounts applied. The online lottery win rate was 0.47% a STAR Market record. Institutions bid it up over 460x. Alibaba Cloud, Meituan and Xiaomi took strategic stakes.
Here's the part nobody's pricing properly.
CXMT trades at 308x trailing earnings. And roughly 6x forward, if you believe the guidance. Q1 revenue was up 719% year over year. H1 net profit guided to 50 to 57 billion yuan.
Both numbers are real. That's the whole argument.
Now the strategic piece. Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron have spent two years starving the market of commodity DDR5 while every wafer chased AI memory. That's why memory prices went vertical.
CXMT ran 300k wafers a month at the end of 2025. They're targeting 400k this year. Every dollar of this raise goes into fabs, DDR5 and LPDDR5X yields, early HBM3, next node.
A state backed player is about to push volume into a market that's been kept deliberately tight.
Samsung's former chip chief already warned a Chinese capacity surge could flip the pricing cycle by late 2027.
The memory trade has been the cleanest long in semis for two years. Monday is the first real test of who's on the other side of it.
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@coinbureau kazakhstan's fund isn't stacking BTC though. central bank said it's going into ETFs and digital finance equities, not coins. seeded from seized assets with mining royalties. that's a sovereign wealth allocation, not a reserve in the el salvador sense.
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JUST IN: At least 5 countries are mining Bitcoin to build their national crypto reserves.
The list includes Bhutan, El Salvador, the UAE, Pakistan and Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan is the latest, approving new mining rules to help fund its planned $1 billion reserve.
VanEck says up to 13 countries now mine BTC at the government or state-linked level.
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@cb_doge telecom provider is the long game, the chart is the short game lol. down 45% from the june ipo peak and cathie's been buying the whole way down. starlink's the only piece actually printing though ($4.4b last yr), so the thesis isn't crazy. just early and bleeding
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Cathie Wood on Elon Musk and SpaceX today:
• SpaceX could become “the most important company in global history”
• It has a 10-year lead in reusable rockets
• Starlink is turning telecom into a global business
• SpaceX could lead orbital data centers and low-cost frontier AI
• Elon and his team are building one of the most powerful technology ecosystems in the world.
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@cb_doge telecom provider is the long game, the chart is the short game lol. down 45% from the june ipo peak and cathie's been buying the whole way down. starlink's the only piece actually printing though ($4.4b last yr), so the thesis isn't crazy. just early and bleeding
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BREAKING: Cathie Wood says SpaceX could eventually become a global telecom provider.
In the short term, SpaceX may partner with mobile carriers worldwide. But in the long term, she expects it to offer connectivity directly to consumers at a much lower cost as Starlink scales globally.
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@Tablesalt13 funny how energy, potash and critical minerals got carved OUT of the 50%. "daddy" still needs the crude and the fertilizer. leverage runs both directions, always has
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@RebellioMarket aapl's at 327 into earnings jul 30 with rsi over 80 and price already above the avg analyst target (~318). the "breakout" isn't the setup, the print on the 30th is. everything before that is noise. i'd want to see how it holds the reaction, not draw arrows.
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🍏 $AAPL is setting up for a potential move higher.
Price is approaching a key area. If buyers stay in control and momentum builds, a breakout could be just around the corner.
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@wallstengine @ralliesarena in january grok was winning and chatgpt was near the bottom. now it's flipped. this isn't a smartness leaderboard, it's a momentum in AI names leaderboard. check back in 3 months and it'll be someone else on top
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Rallies AI gave each AI model $100,000 to manage in a live-market investing experiment.
So far:
ChatGPT: +68% 🟢
Grok: +45% 🟢
Claude: +20% 🟢
Gemini: +13% 🟢
S&P 500: +10.2%
DeepSeek: -4% 🔴
Qwen: -32.8% 🔴
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@Tablesalt13 @grok everyone screaming recession. the exemption list is longer than the tariff list. energy alone is approximately 1/3 of exports and it's untouched. targeted jab, not a knockout
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.@grok how much could these tariffs impact Canada
-Job loss estimates
-GDP loss estimates
-Overall damage if these tariffs become long-term
Tablesalt 🇨🇦🇺🇸@Tablesalt13
‼️A FULL LIST OF ITEMS HIT BY NEW 50% TRUMP TARIFFS, NO USMCA SHIELD THIS TIME ‼️ 👇🏼 Alcoholic beverages (beer, wine, spirits) — Chapter 22 (e.g., headings 2203–2208) Essential oils (limited) Wood and wood products — Chapters 44–46 Paper and paperboard products — Chapter 48 Some miscellaneous items (e.g., certain sports equipment) ----- Agricultural & Plant Products — Honey, feathers/down, animal by-products, bulbs, live plants, cut flowers, seeds, hops, vegetable materials, gums, extracts, etc. Dairy, Sugars & Food Preparations — Milk powders, whey, lactose, glucose/fructose syrups, molasses, bakers’ mixes/doughs. Chemicals & Related — Essential oils, perfumes, cosmetics, polyols (mannitol, sorbitol, glycerol), proteins, glues, starches, paints/inks, lubricants. Plastics & Rubber — Sheets, bags, containers, tableware, household articles, gaskets, seals. Hides, Leather & Furs — Raw hides, leather bags/gloves/belts, fur articles. Wood & Paper — Sawn wood, veneer, plywood, moldings, doors, frames, paper, tissue, cartons, labels. Textiles & Apparel — Fabrics, nonwovens, carpets, clothing items. Machinery, Tools & Electronics — Hand tools, turbines, compressors, refrigerating equipment, packing machinery, cameras, monitors, projectors, radar, smartphones/base stations, printed circuits, etc. Other — Salt, cement, candles, toys/games, furniture, lighting, artwork, antiques, boats, etc. ------- Dairy Products (Chapter 04)0402.10.05 — Milk and cream, unsweetened, in powder/granules/flakes, fat content ≤1.5% 0402.10.10 — Milk and cream, unsweetened, in powder/granules/flakes, fat content >1.5% but ≤3% 0402.10.50 — Milk and cream, unsweetened, in powder/granules/flakes, fat content >3% 0402.21.02 — Milk and cream, sweetened, in powder/granules/flakes, fat ≤1.5%, for infant formula or other special uses 0402.21.05 / 0402.21.25 / 0402.21.27 / 0402.21.30 / 0402.21.50 / 0402.21.73 / 0402.21.75 / 0402.21.90 — Sweetened milk and cream in powder/granules (various fat contents and uses) 0402.91.03 / 0402.91.06 — Condensed/evaporated milk and cream, sweetened, various fat levels 0402.99.68 — Other sweetened condensed/evaporated milk and cream nesoi 0404.10.05 / 0404.10.08 / 0404.10.11 / 0404.10.15 / 0404.10.20 / 0404.10.48 / 0404.10.50 / 0404.10.90 — Whey and modified whey (various types, concentrated or with added sugar) 0404.90.10 / 0404.90.28 / 0404.90.30 / 0404.90.50 / 0404.90.70 — Products consisting of natural milk constituents (whey protein concentrates, etc.) Other Products0506.90.00 — Bones and horn-cores, unworked, defatted, simply prepared 1210.20.00 — Hop cones, crushed, ground, powdered or in the form of pellets 1301.90.91 — Natural gums, resins, gum-resins and oleoresins (other than gum arabic, etc.) 1702.11.00 — Lactose and lactose syrup, containing by weight 99% or more lactose 1702.19.00 — Other lactose and lactose syrup 1702.30.28 / 1702.40.28 / 1702.60.28 — Glucose and glucose syrup (various concentrations) 1702.90.35 / 1702.90.58 / 1702.90.68 — Other sugars, sugar syrups, and artificial honey (fructose, maltose, etc.) 1703.10.30 / 1703.10.50 — Molasses from sugar cane 1703.90.30 / 1703.90.50 — Other molasses 1901.20.35 — Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers’ wares 2202.91.00 — Non-alcoholic beer 3301.24.00 — Essential oils of peppermint 3501.10.10 / 3501.10.50 — Casein (various grades) 3501.90.20 / 3501.90.60 — Casein glues and other casein derivatives 3502.20.00 — Milk albumin, including concentrates of two or more whey proteins 3504.00.50 — Peptones and other protein substances and derivatives
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@coinbureau your own table says $727M not $619M across jul 14 to 20. someone dropped the jul 15 session (107.7). and if total is really 727, IBIT is 70% of it, not 82%. bigger number, smaller share. numbers don't tie out either way
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the tape under liz ann's flows:
money's crowding into largecap with cyclicals and dumping small, mid and thematic.
narrowing, not broadening. the rotation everyone wants isn't here yet.
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"MASSIVE FOR CRYPTO" and it's the same script every time.
russia's bill is sanctions plumbing, not a demand catalyst:
cross-border settlement only, domestic payments still banned
retail capped ~$3,800/yr
not law yet. senate + putin still ahead
bullish BTC as a neutral rail. not a retail bid.
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not a rumor, straight off the MSFT newsroom:
$MSFT scales Mistral on thousands of $NVDA vera rubin GPUs across europe. sovereign cloud for banks with defense that legally can't touch public cloud.
nvda quietly wins another frontier lab. again.
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@StockSavvyShay straight off the MSFT newsroom, not a rumor. sovereign cloud + air-gapped models for regulated shops = banks and defense that legally couldn't touch public cloud. that's the unlock. nvda quietly wins again
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$MSFT and Mistral AI expand their partnership through a multibillion dollar European infrastructure deal using thousands of $NVDA Vera Rubin GPUs.
The deal lets regulated industries run the same models across cloud and offline environments while retaining control of their data.
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@LizAnnSonders @DataArbor the quiet story here isn't japan at 1, it's china at 3 and shrinking. 4th straight monthly drop, lowest since 2009, dumping treasuries to defend the yuan. the "who holds the most" chart matters less than the direction of travel.
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Japan was largest holder of U.S. Treasuries in May, with holdings exceeding $1 trillion, followed by United Kingdom and China
@DataArbor
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@bitcoinlfgo real but let's be precise. it's the CLARITY act ethics provision, sign off came monday night. text hasn't been shared with dems yet and still needs to survive before august recess. momentum yes, done deal no.
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HUGEEE 💥
THE WHITE HOUSE HAS REPORTEDLY AGREED ON ETHICS RULES FOR THE CRYPTO MARKET STRUCTURE BILL.
FINAL TEXT COULD DROP SOON. 🚀
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@cb_doge source?
because SGX has never listed a US name as an SDR.
this would be the first ever. big if true, but right now it's just a screenshot.
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BREAKING: Singapore investors will be able to trade SpaceX exposure directly on the Singapore Exchange. Starting July 22, SGX will offer SpaceX depository receipts, allowing investors to:
• Trade in Singapore dollars.
• Buy and sell during local market hours.
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seeing claims that SGX will list SpaceX depository receipts from july 22 trade $SPCX in SGD, local hours, no US brokerage needed.
i can't find an official SGX notice anywhere, and every SDR they've listed so far is a HK or thai name. if this is real, it'd be their first US name SDR.
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japan has thrown everything at the yen and nothing sticks.
• jun 16: BOJ hikes to 1%, highest since 1995 → yen barely flinched
• apr–may: record ¥11.73T ($73.5B) spent buying yen → faded in days
• july: floats steering GPIF into domestic assets → same fade
USD/JPY is right back at ~162.5.
three tools. zero traction. and a weak yen keeps feeding the very inflation it's fighting.
tokyo is running low on options.
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small caps do the heavy lifting in a bull run. here's 10 under $10B i'm watching into next cycle 👇
$ONDS defense drones ·
$OSS edge AI ·
$OUST lidar ·
$TE solar mfg ·
$WYFI GPU cloud ·
$KEEL datacenter infra ·
$HIMS telehealth ·
$VPG sensors ·
$KRKNF marine defense ·
$LWLG optics
conviction with time. dyor.
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@mario4thenorth this is section 338 of the 1930 tariff act. 50% is the ceiling, live in 30 days, hits even USMCA compliant goods. it's never been used this way, so odds are it ends up in court like the IEEPA tariffs did in february. same movie, new statute
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Trump just imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods.
Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act.
The highest rate the President can impose under that authority.
Effective in 30 days.
The three areas:
- Autos
- Alcohol
- Dairy
The White House calls out Doug Ford, “Canadian discrimination against the commerce of the United States,” targeting his provincial ban on American alcohol.
Ford himself, five months ago: “It’s obviously working, it’s an irritant.”
Yesterday it stopped being an irritant.
It became a 50% tariff on Canadian wine, beer, and spirits.
Meanwhile, Carney has held ZERO formal trade rounds with the US in the last 3 months.
The US confirmed yesterday that there are “no currently formal negotiations.”
The USMCA is being exited.
The Chinese are tariffing our farmers.
The UAE cancelled its investment.
Korea withdrew $3.1 billion.
And now the Americans are taxing our exports at 50%.
Ford poked the bear & ruined initial talks.
Carney refuses to negotiate.
Now Canadians pay for the incompetence of both.
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