Víctor Guerra

February recap 💥 Slow and boring month for my trading with only 3 trades, all losers. It wasn't easy to navigate. With equity curve < 20MA → caution is required, although I'm still looking for RS stocks and groups as things can change fast. Let's see how March unfolds.

"We don't leap 7-foot fences. Instead, we look for 1-foot fences with big rewards on the other side" - C. Munger 7-ft fence → hard penny environment. 1-ft fence → easy dollar environment. Setups look the same in good or bad markets—the probabilities of them working don't.

@RealSimpleAriel Nice. I've learned a lot from your pre-market prep for the last year. After watching your $SLV short, I've been tempted to try that side (especially parabolic ones), but decided to 1st wait to be consistently profitable on the long side Thanks for the knowledge shared every day

@DiscipleStock well $SLV short has basically made my year so far. but I knew that trade had massive opportunity so not entirely surprising.

3/19/2026 Daily Recap: Bulls did some heavy lifting! - $QQQ $SPY where have we seen this movie before? Gap down reversal for the 8th time in 6 weeks. - $SNDK $WDC $STX $LITE $CIEN $AXTI $BE $AAOI $TSEM $PL $FSLY we cannot lose sight of how impressive the individual leadership has been in this market. - $GLD $GDX $SLV $SILJ with large gaps lower this morning. I think the edge is gone there for a short for the time being. - $IGV continues to try and carve out a bottom. - $XLF was nice to see the late day rebound as well. $GS bounce off the 200sma and plays a large role for the Dow $YM_F. - $XLK the largest component of the $SPY had its own drop and reversal today. Would be nice to see a follow through day soon if we are going to break this string of lower highs. - $XLV currently broken $LLY $ABBV $MCK not helping - $UFO a group to watch tomorrow on the back of $PL. $RKLB $ASTS $KTOS $KRMN etc. - $XLE $XOP $OIH still the strongest group in the market but a little multiweek pause here would be totally normal. A bit extended on a $CVX $APA $AR $FANG $VLO. My base case is a breather. - $SMH also a gap and reversal today. The market cannot afford to lose this group. $AMD super job holding the 200sma. $LSCC $TSEM $LRCX $KLAC $TSM $ASML $INTC great action from the open.

$ANET with a VCP setup. - RS New High Before Price (RSNHBP). - Four inside days. - Confluence of key MAs. - No big red volume bars on right side of chart. - Super liquid (avg. daily dollar volume → 915M). - AI infrastructure theme. - Double digit EPS and Sales growth.

@RealSimpleAriel Didn't explain myself right. Out of curiosity (if you don't mind), roughly what portion of your YTD returns would you attribute to long positions versus short positions?

@DiscipleStock $NFLX was from last year. $VLO and $XOM are both 30%+ winners. so equal to $GDX.

Coming into 2026, one of my goals was to improve my sit-out power during choppy periods. Feb-Mar = boring (5 trades — all losers) → yet feels like a win because I've seen some progress. I'm still tracking RS stocks/groups as things can change really fast & gotta be prepared.

Just posted a bunch of charts setting up for the next few days. Haven't seen so many TIGHT setups in a long time. Let's see if they can break out and have follow through.

$OIS controlled pullback to rising 20MA. Tight price action.

$LWLG tight day on low volume after the HVE. Another stock in the Chemicals group acting great.

$SKM - South Korean stock.

$TPL high tight flag.

$TER higher low setup after a perfect bounce off of the 50MA.

$RNG orderly pullback to rising 20MA, volume drying up. Part of the AI Agent theme.

$AEIS higher low. Trying to reclaim the 20MA.

$GEVO nice reaction to ER, inside day at VWAP. It has 3 quarters of triple digit EPS growth. Chemicals group one of the strongest lately.

$ECG recent IPO, surfing 20MA. Engineering & Construction group with plenty of stocks acting well near ATHs → $AGX, $LGN, $STRL.

$POWL tight higher low.

$BTU tight price action just above all MAs.

$KEYS tight at rising 20MA.

Nice to see an accumulation day for the Nasdaq Composite. I define it as an up day on higher volume than the previous day. In addition, there's VERY strong price action in many growth stocks beneath the surface. ARKK (a basket of growth stocks) is back above its 21-day EMA. Let's see if it can hold this level and we get some overall follow through for the general market over the next few days. Keep in mind, the market is a discounting mechanism. It trades on what's going to happen 6-9 months from now. Yes, I realize the news is miserable, but you have to be open-minded that most of it might be priced in. I'm not saying ALL of it is priced in and I'm still expecting some volatility over the near-term. I'm simply saying to be open-minded. Stubbornness gets you nowhere.