Divide et impera

@stats_feed The functionality of the Global South using the example of one country LOL

🇺🇸 USD vs 🇮🇷 Iranian Rial - Long-Term Devaluation 📉 2002: 💵 1 dollar = 7,900 2003: 💵 1 dollar = 8,200 2004: 💵 1 dollar = 8,700 2005: 💵 1 dollar = 9,000 2006: 💵 1 dollar = 9,200 2007: 💵 1 dollar = 9,300 2008: 💵 1 dollar = 9,600 2009: 💵 1 dollar = 9,900 2010: 💵 1 dollar = 10,300 2011: 💵 1 dollar = 13,500 2012: 💵 1 dollar = 26,000 2013: 💵 1 dollar = 31,800 2014: 💵 1 dollar = 32,400 2015: 💵 1 dollar = 33,500 2016: 💵 1 dollar = 36,000 2017: 💵 1 dollar = 59,500 2018: 💵 1 dollar = 135,000 2019: 💵 1 dollar = 130,000 2020: 💵 1 dollar = 254,000 2021: 💵 1 dollar = 273,000 2022: 💵 1 dollar = 427,000 2023: 💵 1 dollar = 500,000 2024: 💵 1 dollar = 770,000 2025: 💵 1 dollar = 1,420,000 2026: 💵 1 dollar = 1,315,000

@Demografig So, about minus 5-6% births this year and a TFR of around 1.3-1.33, right?

Kapsamlı yorumum: Geçen yıl bildiğiniz gibi doğumlarda -%5.2lik sert azalma yaşadık. Bu azalma büyük ölçüde yılın ilk aylarında yaşandı, yani Ocak-Nisan arasında -%10a varan düşüşler vardı ama bunlar Temmuz-Kasım aylarında ki doğumların geçen yılın aynı ayına göre sabit kalmasıyla hatta Ağustos'ta bazı illerde artışla dengelendi ve azalma -%5 olarak gerçekleşti. Yani farkedilmesi gerek nokta geçmiş yılların aksine doğumlar kış ve ilkbaharda azalıp yaz ve sonbahar aylarında yoğunlaştı ben bunun bir düzelme yaşayacağını düşünüyorum. Şimdi azalmış gözüken Adana ve Yozgat geçen yılın ilk aylarında -%10dan fazla azalmış hallerinin üstüne bir -%10 daha azalıyorlar. Kış ilkbahar-yaz sonbahar doğum oran orantısının 2 yıl öncesiyle aynı olması için yaz ve sonbaharda Adana ve Yozgat'ın %20-%25 azalma yaşaması gerekiyor ve ben bunu uzak bir ihtimal olarak görmüyorum. Şimdi yorum için erken deme sebebimde bu. Örneğin Kayseri şimdi sabit gözüksede aslında geçen yılın ilk aylarındaki devasa azalmanın üstüne yeni azalma yaşamıyor. Belirleyici dönem yaz ayları olacak eğer yaz aylarında doğumlar -%5e kadar azalırsa amenna, ben daha karamsar bakıyorum yaz aylarında çoğu ilde azalma %15in üstünde olacaktır inşallah ben yanılırım.

@Carpincho1986 @BirthGauge The table only includes countries with available monthly official statistics. Unfortunately, Indonesia still does not provide accessible monthly demographic data

@BirthGauge Really glaring that Indonesia is missing even though it's the fourth largest country in the world. It's truly the "biggest invisible thing on earth".

Interim update of the birth table to include the US figures that were released just a few moments ago.

@charliesmirkley It's been only one full year of the new migration policy. Thanks to the administration's decisions, the share of white births has returned to over 50% of all births. Another 10 years of this kind of policy and the share of white births will return to 60-65%

Feb 2026 U.S. births by race (prelim, CDC Wonder): 269,258 total, down 2.15% Y/Y (so will end up flat). Biggest drops: Black (-6.84%), Hispanic (-3.79%), Asian (-1.77%) White barely moved (-0.46%).

@RyanGirdusky This is only the beginning. The decline will be deeper and longer due to the new migration policy of the current administration.

US Census: Big declines births from foreign-born women (Jan-Feb 2025 vs. Jan-Feb 2026) Bangladeshi: -12.5% Chinese: -17.5% Colombian: -10.5% Ecuadoran: -22% El Salvadoran: -15% Guatemalan: -16% Haitians: -16% Honduran: -15% Mexican: -13% Nicaraguan: -20%

@andyd10 The artificial bureaucratic backlog effect will sooner or later — and most likely sooner — wear off, and the trend toward the collapse of marriages will continue.

@andyd10 The entire growth in the number of marriages in China in 2025 is purely artificial in nature and is caused only by bureaucratic liberalization of marriages first and foremost, the abolition of marriage registration based on hukou — household registration

Although the number of marriages in China increased by 10% in 2025, there was a decline in the number of marriages in some regions of China in 01.2026 Jixi county, Anhui prov. - marriages down 52%!!! Lieshan dist., Shandong prov. - down 53%!!! Wanzhi dist., Anhui prov. - down 20%

@Wealthmanager The extent to which Trump openly engages in insider trading and stock market corruption is mind-blowing. He and his inner circle will go to prison if they lose the 2028 elections

President Trump says the entire country (Iran) could be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night. Looks like a ceasefire is far from close. Be ready for a very volatile day tomorrow. Please avoid trading, or use very tight stop losses with low risk management. What price will do tomorrow is extremely news-driven, so it’s almost impossible to predict.

@angstpinoy @fridman_na27489 @JesusFerna7026 Usual Kissinger W I hope that when the Democrats come back to power, we will restore USAID and double the agency's funding

@fridman_na27489 @JesusFerna7026 Read #NSSM200

The Philippines is a fantastic example of how deep and fast the drop in fertility is nearly everywhere on the planet. Just last week, on March 30, 2026, the Philippine Statistics Authority released the 2025 National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). The total fertility rate for the last three years has reached 1.7 children per woman, a dramatic fall from 4.1 in 1993, and well below the replacement rate (around 2.1 for a country like the Philippines). Since the NDHS computes the total fertility rate over three years, and it is dropping quickly, the total fertility rate for 2025 alone should be around 1.6, the same level as in the U.S. Let me repeat this: the Philippines and the U.S. have roughly the same total fertility rate. But U.S. income per capita is about 7.3 times the Philippine income per capita (when adjusted for purchasing power parity). Or to put it differently, Philippine income per capita today is the same as the U.S. had in 1910. In that year, the total fertility rate of the U.S. was around 3.5. At the same level of income per capita, the Philippines has a total fertility rate that is less than half. In some more urban regions, such as Calabarzon, the total fertility rate is 1.3. Historically, the rest of the country has followed the patterns of regions like Calabarzon with some lag, so the most likely scenario is that in a few years, the Philippines will have a total fertility rate of around 1.3 as well. Compared with the United Nations World Population Prospects (WPP), the Philippines is now at the fertility level the WPP had forecast for 2047, despite the aggressive reduction it made to the Philippines’ forecast fertility between 2022 and 2024. The Philippines is interesting because, compared with other Asian countries, it is a relatively religious and rural country without the Confucian obsession with education found in China or South Korea. It is also a country that many still associate with high fertility. Just yesterday, one reader left a comment on my previous post on fertility, using the Philippines as an example of high fertility, that “refuted” my claims. No, it does not. Finally, three technical points. First, I am reporting total fertility, not completed fertility (and yes, I am keenly aware of the difference between the two). Looking at age-specific fertility rates suggests that completed fertility for younger women will actually be below the current total fertility rate. Second, no, emigration does not matter here. I am talking about fertility rates, not birth rates. Third, the official release: psa.gov.ph/content/fertil…

@SpicyGaullism @noseeeeque72992 @mi233695 already below 30 million

@noseeeeque72992 @mi233695 ~31 million.

Map of China's Fertility rate, 2000. These values are calculated using the no.of 0 year olds (with underreporting factors eliminated) and the number of 20-44 year old women for each province. Probably quite surprising, but China's Fertility rate was already very low 30 years ago.

@mi233695 @andyd10 I know the official explanation. It's just that this confusion between official statistical agencies and the constant revision of yesterday's data is one of the reasons why no one trusts Chinese statistics

@Divideetimpera5 @andyd10 When the 2000 census is conducted, 13.7M 0-yr-olds were recorded, but the 2020 census showed that there were actually 14.7 M 20-year olds, so around 9-10% of newborns were concealed (If we consider mortality and emigration), and the 1.22 value derives from this underreported data

@fridman_na27489 @JesusFerna7026 💯 120 million people crammed onto such a tiny piece of land. The Philippines doesn’t need a high TFR or continued population growth. What they actually need is natural depopulation — just like the rest of the Global South

@JesusFerna7026 The Philippines is over populated .

@mi233695 @andyd10 Equally striking is the retrospective revision of official birth data from 2010 to 2019 following the 2020 census. Chinese officials stated that they would adjust the figures upward, adding an average of roughly 1 million births each year during that period LOL

@mi233695 @andyd10 I've always been amazed at how different Chinese statistical departments couldn't agree on one common TFR number. The 2000 Chinese census reported a TFR of 1.22, whereas the Family Planning Commission revised the figure significantly higher, up to 1.8

@amazing_physics The exponential growth of the human population is what has changed. If we want to save this world, humanity must move into a mode of natural and humane population decline

What changed? Apollo 17 1972 vs Artemis II 2026?

@PopBase Human population growth is the biggest threat and curse to this planet. If all humans on Earth disappeared tomorrow, the planet would only become better lol

NASA shares 1972 vs 2026 photos of Earth.

@fascinatingonX W for the Earth's ecosystem. REKT humanity, save the planet 🌎

BREAKING 🚨: Earth is tilting toward its next ice age in 10,000 years, new research reveals.

@bestplayeratlas REKT crypto practically to zero, buy the dip for pennies while the rest of the market is panicking, end the war and pump everything to new all-time highs. W

Trump is playing 3d chess. The plan is simple. OIL → $200. This will knock Crypto and Stocks down 40%. Send gas prices to $10. Cut Real Estate in half. And while everyone is panicking, we get generational entries. Then he ends the war, we begin the greatest bull market in history, and he takes credit for all of it. Trust the process.

@mi233695 It is still too early to draw conclusions based on data from just two months. By the same logic, China's TFR this year will fall to 0.72 based on data from Chinese cities and counties for January–February

Taiwan's TFR is bound to drop to 0.6 or lower this year.

@tyqwer16 @andyd10 The only pronatalist measures that actually work are large one-time lump-sum payments for the birth of children, while monthly benefits are a social welfare measure rather than a pronatalist one. South Korea is now confirming this theory.

🇰🇷 birth registration (not official birth data) 2025 Mar 21,216 2026 Mar 26,402 (+24.4%) Seoul metropolitan 14,493 (+26.4%) Others 11,909 (+22.2%) Birth share of Seoul Metropolitan area : 54.9% 2025 Jan-Mar 64,319 2026 Jan-Mar 73,742 (+14.7%) jumin.mois.go.kr