@BirthGauge Maybe change the historical TFR of China from 1.75, 1.10, 0.93 to 1.61, 1.14, 0.97? Just my humble advice.
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Chinese demographics🇨🇳
128 posts
Interim update of the birth table to include the US figures that were released just a few moments ago.
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@Divideetimpera5 @andyd10 When the 2000 census is conducted, 13.7M 0-yr-olds were recorded, but the 2020 census showed that there were actually 14.7 M 20-year olds, so around 9-10% of newborns were concealed (If we consider mortality and emigration), and the 1.22 value derives from this underreported data
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Map of China's Fertility rate, 2000.
These values are calculated using the no.of 0 year olds (with underreporting factors eliminated) and the number of 20-44 year old women for each province.
Probably quite surprising, but China's Fertility rate was already very low 30 years ago.
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In comparison, this is China's provincial level TFR in 2024
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@panacheplumeux Precisely, NE China was always under 1 since 1995.
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@JohnnyMcnuke I think the main problem is that the design of the Chinese society made that the social status (e.g. convenience, level of respect received) of childbearing mothers is, comparatively, far worse than young, single childless women. The wider this gap is, the lower the TFR.
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@mi233695 Is there a reason why Han populations outside of China proper (Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia) all have such abysmally low birth rates?
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Taiwan's TFR is bound to drop to 0.6 or lower this year.
Birth Gauge@BirthGauge
According to official figures, the TFR of Taiwan in 2025 turned out to be 0.695 children per woman.
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@BirthGauge This method simulates fertility without population movement, without population loss, and without changes in fertility patterns. Of course, in reality, all three factors exist, so I don’t claim that the numbers I calculate are perfectly accurate. But this is the best I can do.
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@mi233695 How did you calculate the TFRs? Afaik only crude birth rates were released yet for the provinces.
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TFR of Mainland China, 2025, by province.
Most provinces plummeted, especially those along the Yangtze Belt.
It is noteworthy that Tibet also didn't escape a turbulent decrease. Its no. of births dropped by 19%, causing its TFR to drop below 1.5, and thus surpassed by Guizhou.
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@BirthGauge 3. Then I divide the actual number of births in 2020 + n by the number of births corresponding to a TFR of 1.438, and multiply by 1.438.
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@BirthGauge 2. When calculating the fertility rate for 2020 + n (years) , I multiply the fertility rate of women aged x in 2020 by the number of women aged (x − n), to get the number of births in 2020 + n if the TFR remained 1.438.
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@BirthGauge My method for calculating the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is as follows:
1. Take 2020 as the baseline year, using the number of women by age and the age-specific fertility rates in 2020 as the standard. For example, in 2020, Shandong had a total of 853K births, with a TFR of 1.438
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@mi233695 @BirthGauge Tianjin is colored, but no number, how much is it?
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@chetellik @JJ_Latvia @BirthGauge Guizhou and Yunnan is only second-tier poor judged by per capita income. And also there is no significant difference between Han and Minorities in the two provinces. Actually, Han is slightly higher in Yunnan.
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@JJ_Latvia @mi233695 @BirthGauge it's poor, not urbanised, and has lots of ethnic minority populations who usually have more children than Han people
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@ainporram @TheSaxonSong @andyd10 @BirthGauge Idk. Some Uyghur counties saw decrease, some increased. So the overall trend for Uyghurs in 2025 is not yet clear. But the Kazakh TFR was devastated: Ili Prefecture (65% Kazakh) recorded a TFR of 0.82, and mutiple other Kazakh counties all dropped by 20%+. Han is probably fine.
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@mi233695 @TheSaxonSong @andyd10 @BirthGauge You think xinjiang tfr not fell so hard cuz Uyghurs tfr rise?
Uyghur tfr is falling in central asia tho
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@TheSaxonSong @andyd10 @BirthGauge Probably not. Xizang Autonomous Region is 87% Tibetan. With it dropping to 1.5, Ethnic Tibetan TFR is unlikely to be > 1.6. Furthermore, Gannan (1.55) , Garze (1.32) and Aba (1.28) all have very mediocre TFRs.
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@usrnmtaken_ @MichaelAArouet I watermarked it before and this guy just removed it...Guess my watermark isn't strong enough lol
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@mi233695 @MichaelAArouet If this is your map, you should be watermarking all your work from now on and making it clear that people are stealing your work.
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Fertility rates in Chinese provinces. In most areas it’s not a demographic crisis, it’s a demographic collapse.
There will be massive economic and geopolitical consequences. Will they be able to reverse the collapse before it’s too late?
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🇰🇷 birth registration
(not official birth data)
2025 Mar 21,216
2026 Mar 26,402 (+24.4%)
Seoul metropolitan 14,493 (+26.4%)
Others 11,909 (+22.2%)
Birth share of Seoul Metropolitan area
: 54.9%
2025 Jan-Mar 64,319
2026 Jan-Mar 73,742 (+14.7%)
jumin.mois.go.kr
Iygine@tyqwer16
🇰🇷 birth registration (not official birth data) 2025 Feb 21,225 2026 Feb 22,694 (+7.0%) Seoul metropolitan 12,675 (+10.1%) Others 10,019 (+3.1%) 2025 Jan-Feb 43,103 2026 Jan-Feb 47,340 (+9.8%)
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