Dan Oswalt
324 posts
@ipoupyrev I think of the ChatGPT moment as a function of the demand side rather than the supply side. Basically just a “woah” moment.
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@MichaelSwengel @MorePerfectUS This is a major area of innovation right now. Building a datacenter? Figure out your own power. It’s why $BE exploded.
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@MorePerfectUS So the obvious solution here is to put a major hold on data center construction unless or until power generation increases dramatically.
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The CEO of the biggest electricity company in the US is warning that blackouts could hit next year, as AI and data centers drive up electricity demand and strain the grid.
Exelon's CEO Calvin Butler told the Financial Times that Americans could “absolutely” lose power as soon as 2027.
He says that last winter his company nearly limited service for 400,000 customers during extreme cold.
ft.com/content/14d2e5…
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Rules - mrb.gg/p/pennycount
It just says reply with a number but I’m required to have this haha
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@eggbert001 These charts look like you put a ton of work into them! Having a bit of trouble understanding the message you want to get across though. Are you suggesting you believe we head towards the 725 area next week?
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$QQQ NEXT Week We Say HELLO 2 te the FVG - I displayed it on the chart if you had trouble finding it ;)
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@Vortasis @uncledoomer It is better advice at today’s interest rates but terrible advice if you are blessed with a sub 3% rate.
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@uncledoomer Its literally the best advice. Using your low interest loan to invest is an easy way to dig yourself into a deep hole. Its diet margin trading. If the market takes a downturn your loan is still there but now you lost the money in the market. What if you get laid off?
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@ThematicTrader On track for the biggest one day gain of my life thanks to the @ThematicTrader substack
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$FCEL is the perfect live showcase of what my research and process is:
- I alerted my entry at $9 on April 21st
- Uncovered the T5 Fairfax filing displaying the use of $FCEL fuel cells and broke the news to the market
- Dissected all news and earnings in detail live for followers / subs
- Conducted a 1x1 sit down with the FuelCell Energy CFO in early June
- Connected Fit Energy to 5C Data Centers / Hypertec before anyone figured it out. $FCEL then confirmed my findings the following morning in a revised investor deck.
- Added to this position three different times with live alerts to subs
- Continuing to hold full size on $FCEL
- Conducting a 2nd $FCEL CFO on July 7th to discuss new business updates
No, "did you listen anon". None of that. This stock has been hated the whole way up. I catch heat every day.
This post is to simply highlight the work I do, the access I am granting retail to management, and everyone can verify / see everything I have done in real-time.
I am proud of and stand by my process and quality of research. All subs will continue to get live alerts, full single stock research, and 1x1 C-Suite access at thematictrader.com
9 Ventures@ThematicTrader
After digging into $FCEL technology and earnings calls further, I feel cautiously optimistic that they are on the right path on closing a data center customer in the near future. The push for AI-native infrastructure has shifted the focus from raw electrical efficiency to total system optimization and speed-to-power. $FCEL FuelCell Energy’s carbonate technology offers a distinct advantage through its DC-native architecture. Traditional power systems, including those from competitors like Bloom Energy, typically output AC power. This requires multiple conversion steps to reach the server racks, which typically results in energy losses of 10% to 15%. By delivering DC power directly to the IT load, FuelCell Energy eliminates these conversion penalties. The integration of waste heat for facility cooling further differentiates the solution. FuelCell Energy’s electrochemical process inherently produces high-grade steam at temperatures near 700°F. This byproduct is directly compatible with absorption chillers, which convert thermal energy into cooling for the server environment. While $BE Bloom Energy can capture high-temperature exhaust for cooling, it requires more complex mechanical integration to match the turnkey steam output inherent in carbonate chemistry. In a 100 MW deployment, this combined efficiency allows for an 11% increase in usable IT power. While a standard grid-connected configuration might only support 69.5 MW of actual server load due to cooling and conversion overhead, the FuelCell Energy architecture supports 77.2 MW. This performance effectively bridges the gap with competitors that may have higher stack-level electrical efficiency but lower system-level utilization. The standardized 12.5 MW power blocks facilitate this by providing a scalable, modular framework for hyperscalers to deploy high-density compute without the 5-to-7 year delays associated with utility grid interconnections.
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@punk9059 Another bottleneck that might see similar margin expansion
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This tech stock market seems very affected by Micron reporting gross margins of 85%. They were 22% in 2024. Have been negative in the past.
The MAG7 is tanking. Apple down 6% yesterday. Google has been down-only for a month. Amazon getting hit.
Very interesting bifurcation in the market here. Ultimately, if the buyers of memory are tanking, it has to be at some point be bad for the sellers too.
Additionally, Chinese DRAM makers coming online (there are currently only 3 major players, due to how bad margins have been in the past and how long it takes to get supply online: Samsung, Hynix and Micron).
Lots of moving pieces.
CT: what should I buy?
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Stephen A. Smith admits he can’t wrap his head around “how the hell” the Clintons and Obamas left office worth upwards of $100,000,000 after “serving” the American people.
“Clinton was a lawyer in Arkansas, grew up poor, relatively broke. How the hell he and the Clinton Foundation are worth hundreds of millions of dollars beats me.”
“Barack Obama was a community organizer who became the President of the United States. And last time I checked, that salary ain’t over $450,000.”
“How the hell you depart from office, [together] you worth over $200 million?”
Clintons’ net worth before office: ~$1,300,000
Clintons’ net worth today: ~$120,000,000
Obamas’ net worth before office: ~$1,300,000
Obamas’ net worth today: ~$70,000,000
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@unusual_whales You gotta wonder…is this poll rigged to make the number lower?
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32% of Americans believe the system is rigged in favor of corporations and the wealthy, that government involvement makes things worse, and that federal policies actively hurt the middle class, per the Roosevelt Institute.
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@WhiskyMAGA So smart that your boosted content got 5 likes. Good job.
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Context. And you obviously didn’t comprehend much of what I wrote. I already listed that much. You’re just agreeing with me. 408 mass shootings is an insanely low amount for a nation of 340 million.
Also the figures for the rest of the world are bogus and low. You know most aren’t even counted in many countries. How many died in Africa to mass shootings genuis? Iran alone killed over 30k of their own people recently.
I’m much more intelligent than you and much more versed on this topic than you ever will. Take the loss
wbaltv.com/article/mass-s…
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One common theme I hear from all the cry baby Euros and Foreigners about America is that we have a ton of mass shootings and firearms deaths. Do we?
The answer is no. Here’s the hard facts. All of this is based on CDC and FBI data.
On average the U.S. has between 44k-48k firearms death annually. Out of a nation of 340 million people that’s a percentage rate of 0.0141% if we use 48k.
Out of that roughly half of those firearm deaths are from suicide(55%). That leaves homicides making up roughly 40%. Which is about 15,364 deaths or a % rate of 0.00451882%.
Breaking that down further by firearms category. Handguns make up the vast majority of firearm homicides at about 60%. Rifles account for about only 2-3% of all firearm homicides annually. The rest being from shotguns, unknown etc.
If we want to break this down further into mass shootings we see that roughly 200-500 people die per year in so called mass shootings( where more than 4 people are killed). If we use the higher 500 figure we get a % rate of 0.000147058824%.
If we want to factor in the big bad AR-15 style weapons into the mix they account for anywhere between 17-100 homicides per years. If we use 50 as an estimate we get a rate of 0.00001471%.
Also, firearm suicide have increased and gun homicides have decrease over the past decade.
A handful of bigger cities also contain the majority of firearm homicides. If we remove them from the equation we actually have less firearm death % per capita than much of Europe.
The U.S. has over 500 million privately owned firearms. That’s about 1.5 firearm per citizen.
So the facts are clear. We actually have an insanely low firearm homicide rate and mass shooting rate. Math doesn’t lie. Most euros are getting this bogus messaging from leftest news that lie on purpose and hype things up more than they are. Yes it’s sad when one innocent person is killed but it’s not a doomsday scenario here.
Good citizens owning firearms allows people to defend themselves. More lives are saved from firearms defensive purposes than murders. And that number isn’t even close.
So show this to the ignorant, leftest Euro the next time he squawks his gums about an American gun problem.
All facts come from FBI and CDC. I use this pew research link as a guide, even though their figures vary slightly.
pewresearch.org/short-reads/20…
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@zerohedge That is actually about on par with software engineer output at a lot of companies.
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Breakdown of every $1 spent on AI tokens: less than 20cents reaches real users (44 cents is spent fixing bugs generated by other AI)
zerohedge@zerohedge
Answering The "Trillion Dollar Question": How China's AI Models Compete On Cost Effieiency zerohedge.com/technology/ans…
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@elonmusk The ironic thing is that had DOGE been more supported by the democratic party, it would be more believable that these proposed wealth taxes could be spent responsibly.
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@UnrealizedPains @friedberg @KyleTibbitts @RoKhanna @sama I think the bigger point is that nobody could donate (or provide income in whatever way) to the government and achieve the espoused claims of childcare/healthcare benefits and most importantly that Ro knows this is the case. All related policies are just a distraction from that.
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It’s a tu quoque fallacy. Whether Ro voluntarily gives away his own money has nothing to do with whether a mandatory AI dividend is good policy. The question was whether a forced 2.5% transfer of AI equity is = to a wealth tax. Instead of answering he changed the subject to Ro making a donation.
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Also @friedberg do you oppose @sama Universal Basic Capital of 2.5 percent on AI companies for a dividend to Americans as asset seizure on the same grounds like you oppose the wealth tax?
Ro Khanna@RoKhanna
This is just intellectual nonsense @friedberg and wouldn't get a passing grade at a place like University Chicago in a freshman seminar. You know that. I can't believe you are defending without a shred of introspection the unfair and lopsided economy where nearly 80 percent of Americans believe the American dream is dead, but 19 billionaires are worth as much as 12 percent of our GDP (three times the concentration of the gilded age). It's a comparison, and I get the difference between stock and flow. Do you not believe that there must be some democratic check on "blind economic forces" and "blindly selfish men" seeking to hoard this nation's wealth and power. There must be some check to rampant speculation, monopolization, and war profiteering where the capital class builds fortunes in its sleep, but nurses, teachers, doctors, firefighters, carpenters, HVAC technicians who work long days can't afford to even buy a house. I am for a free enterprise system that works for hard working men and women in every part of America, not just the connected and privileged. I am for a patriotic capitalism, instead of an extractive capitalism. I celebrate entrepreneurs and those that build businesses. I am absolutely not for taking away their property or having the government control their business. A private sector is necessary to be a free society so that government does not control every aspect of our life. But men should not be allowed to buy politicians with their wealth and skew the laws in their favor. They should not be allowed to evade justice as we saw with the Epstein class. They should pay a fair tax before they die, like ordinary Americans do, so that every American can have the basic necessities of healthcare and education. There are many business leaders who still believe in the social contract and recognize their obligations to their employees, to the community, to their customers, and to our nation. I call them economic patriots. The problem is with arrogance of those billionaires who believe they are better than us, that they are entitled to rule, that somehow they are better allocators of capital than the American people. Really? The American people who defeated Nazism and communism, funded the Moon landing and creation of the internet, and who have built the greatest economic engine the world has seen. I want an America where every has the chance to build wealth, where the political opinion of a billionaire does not matter more than that of a nurse, and where the success of our business leaders leads to the success of all Americans. When young people start cheering prominent business leaders, you will know we are headed in that direction. Right now they are being booed, not by politicians, but by an entire generation that feels forsaken.
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@UnrealizedPains @friedberg @KyleTibbitts @RoKhanna @sama Normally yes. Smells like when everybody told Buffet to donate more money when he said they should raise his tax rate. But in this case, Ro has no possible retort. He can’t say “my foundation donates far more than that” because that is precisely what he is arguing against.
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@friedberg @KyleTibbitts @RoKhanna @sama This is a bad faith illogical argument, David. I have a lot of respect for you, and I think Ro’s policy proposal stinks, but this isn’t the way to attack it.
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@deedydas There is a 3rd type. The builder. A combination of the lazy and the craftsman. They tear through the walls the craftsmen have built. Yet they filter out the slop with vigor. They see both that perfect and slop is the enemy of good and learn how to straddle those boundaries.
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Most software engineers are facing an identity crisis bordering on depression.
As CTOs aggressively evangelize tokenmaxxing, a class divide ensues.
The lazy. The lazy push code. They don't write it. They don't manually test it. They don't even read it. They're on autopilot. See Jira ticket, prompt for task, submit code. Many of them are barely on their computer the whole day. A comment on the PR asking why they did this? The lazy ask AI. A Slack message? The lazy ask AI. Need to prepare for standup? The lazy ask AI. As long as it sounds enough like them and isn't detected. Some of the lazy are even overemployed, and work multiple jobs. The lazy smart ones get away with this, and even rewarded. After all, software engineering for the lazy is just a dance to convince your colleagues you're smart and hard working.
The craftsmen. The craftsmen are tired. Very tired. 15 PRs in queue. Slack blowing up. The entire burden of review falls on the craftsman. The burden of understanding. They try. They work their way through the code, thoughtfully commenting to improve what ships. The response? A lazy: "That's a clever idea! You're absolutely right." with an incorrect change. It's fine, the craftsman says. I can fix them. They write a doc urging his colleagues to be better. The next day? 20,000 line PR to review. Day after day, their workload grows. Bugs seep into production. No one seems to care. Another round of AI is thrown at it. Their animosity to their colleagues rises. Eventually, they give up. It's just not what it used to be. The craft they loved is dead. They eventually wake up, a lazy.
This isn't all companies. Many companies are genuinely more productive, adopt the right set of principles and practices around AI development and have highly talented teams that trust each other. It tends to happen in bigger companies that are 10+yrs old with a higher talent variance. But it happens. A lot.
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@ThematicTrader Most visionary research I have ever read. Great work.
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Deep research and real conviction built this.
+404% in the last 3 months.
My subscribers get every thesis, every CFO 1x1, every update, and every position in real time.
thematictrader.com
P/L Drivers: $VPG $FCEL $PENG $TSEM $NBIS $POWI $FLNC $BWEN $ENPH
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@paulg @JonErlichman That list is missing some publicly traded stocks. E.g., $VPG
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@JonErlichman It's funny that the list is so short. There must be hundreds if not thousands of startups whose valuations have doubled in the past year.
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Stocks up more than 200% this year:
Sandisk: +725%
Rackspace: +675%
Applied Opto: +380%
Western Digital: +313%
Seagate: +287%
Arm Holdings: +283%
Micron: +266%
Marvell: +241%
Nebius: +236%
Dell: +233%
Satellogic: +230%
Intel:+228%
Bloom Energy: +227%
Navitas Semi: +213%
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