ENRI Indonesia retweetledi
If this is true & the Houthis are starting to attack ships in the Red Sea, it’s likely Irans retaliation to Trumps blockade announced this morning
If we’re looking at another Red Sea Crisis with the Bab al-Mandeb Strait closed again, this whole situation gets a lot more complex
To note, during the previous Red Sea Crisis vessels doing business with China & Russia were able to pass for the most part. So if the Strait is closed again, Russian cargoes will most likely still be able to sail through, and so will cargoes to China, including a large portion of Yanbu exports that head towards China.
Roughly about 2.5 million bpd of Yanbu crude exports head to China, and if Yanbu holds at maximum capacity, the other 3 million bpd will reroute to Europe and Asia via the Cape of Good Hope (CoGH). Unlike what some may think, VLCCs actually can go through the Suez; however, due to the draft of only 20.1 meters (66 feet), VLCCs can only transit laden with 1.3-1.6 million barrels.
As part of the cargo has to be unloaded, transported through the Sumed pipeline (2.5 million bpd capacity), and reloaded at Sidi Kerir.
Looking at the Yanbu (CoGH) route, the distance is very comparable to a USG/East route, being only about 100nm longer, depending on estimates. However, with the canal transit, pipeline usage, and port loadings/discharges, there is a high additional cost and an additional 4-6 days of voyage time. For instance, this kind of Yanbu route to Korea would take at least 55.5 days just to arrive in Korea, making this by far the most costly and time-consuming VLCC route.
As a result, A large portion of these exports could head to European/Med refineries. As a result an increased amount of European/Med crude exports head East while Atlantic Basin crude exports to Europe will likely decline even more and redirect increasingly to Asia via VLCCs.
If Yanbu exports are directed towards Europe, these will likely be done using Suezmaxes and Aframaxes, as a VLCC using the Sumed pipeline is more expensive and takes about the same time or even longer for USG, Guyana, and West Africa exports to Europe.
As a result this scrambles global trade even more and makes a Middle East/Asia route one of the longest and most expensive voyages on the planet. If this happened we’ll likely see even more astronomical Tanker rates and probably higher oil prices. Great for shipping and oil prices, not so much for everyone else. #oott #tankers #iran
Visegrád 24@visegrad24
A boat with around a dozen armed men onboard just attacked a cargo vessel near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. The attack failed as they couldn’t board the ship. Looks like the Houthis are starting attacks to close the Strait and the route through the Suez Canal.
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