Don Greco

@tonyc920 @growthrapidly You are paralytos not parametros , probably parateros? Just asking for a friend

@growthrapidly Nope. I'd short it before I'd invest. The fundamentals doesn't meet my parameters.

$OSCR Would you consider buying Oscar now after the CEO purchased $11M worth of shares?👀

There is always better entry points and value vs others ; nonetheless, when the whole industry gets beaten down and you have the forecasts and valuation of OSCR with a CEO of the caliber and more seniority of Anthony Noto , is worth taking a look …. Same as SoFi , $29 was too rich and off loaded and $15 too low and loaded back … hey diesel to fill the boat is $15k ; we need those swings Just my 2 gallons :)

@PalantirRealm I don't really like insurance businesses as investments. I did spend a little bit of time (less than 2 hrs) looking into $OSCR. Looks okay. Didn't see savings when I ran myself into it's algorithm. Government connections help it too, but just not for me.

@Kross_Roads what’s your take on $OSCR?

@halfdome Could be dons through the desk as block sale. Dies not matter … we pretty well off but could not find $12mm sitting around .. That’s a huge deal imho

$OSCR Bears say'n Bertollini's purchase amounts to nothing b/c it's private placement - don't listen to their FUD - the PSU vested April 3rd, when markets were closed. Mark's price on the form is $11.92 which was the closing price of April 2nd = open market purchase price

@investingwithac Got 200 contracts CP , Jan ‘27 for $9 the other day :) that’s contracts not shares :).

$OSCR We’ll probably fizzle the pop a little bit… I scooped up some cash from elsewhere and sold a $13.5 CSP… Looking to get some more shares on a potential short-term drawdown, or at least grab some premiums :) Anything below my average is worth picking up for me ;)

@thomasthedeal @investingwithac @Sam_Badawi Private market , all it means went through a Sales trader on a desk who accumulated the shares . Would not move the market as well

@investingwithac @DonGreco21 @Sam_Badawi so, how good or bad of a purchase is it compared to open market purchase ? $oscr

I released a post yesterday suggesting that $OSCR CEO Mark Bertolini bought 1M shares on the open market and added to his position. That was incorrect. The purchase did occur, but it was not an open-market buy. I should have verified the filing more carefully. Here is what actually happened. On April 3, Bertolini had 5.7M+ performance stock units vest into shares, and on April 6 the company withheld 1M shares for taxes. That same day, he purchased 1M shares directly from the issuer in a private placement at $11.92, which offsets the tax withholding but does not represent open-market buying activity. So while he did acquire shares, this should not be interpreted as discretionary buying in the market. Just pointing out the facts.

@investingwithac @Sam_Badawi The whole point is $11 million came out of his pocket ??? That’s all it matters . He is not that wealthy … let’s say $150-200 MM mostly in his foundation CEOs I worked for , were happy to milk and sell!!! This is great news .

He received 5.7 million from comp, then had 1 mil withheld for taxes… Then privately purchased 1 million shares… So net increase of 5.7 million shares! There are 2 ways to look at this…. 1. He received 4.7 million shares net of taxes, and purchased 1 million additional… 2. He automatically had taxes withheld, and didn’t want that to happen, so he bought the shares back…. Either way, he wants more shares!

@FunOfInvesting youtu.be/Wb4RLFV-qUI?si…

Join Roy and myself discuss $GRAB $OSCR $HIMS $SOFI and more tonight on Bootleg Weekly at 8PM ET Tonight youtube.com/live/ZsjzyzQS9…

@FunOfInvesting Guys follow @investingwithac on OSCR. He is the “DDI” cum “CIA” of OSCAR

@michaeldweiss That’s just click bait story telling. Yes you would have pretty maps on a classified ops… and flown and jumped out of 130s. Tney would never use them They slow as a park geese … give me a break dude … get a real job

"The op basically cost $300 million because they had to abandon the two AFSOC C-130s and the four MH-6 Little Birds. Then the U.S. Air Force had to use multiple bombs to blow up all the aircraft they abandoned at that airstrip. And the Iranians shot down 2 MQ-9s Reaper drones. "Luckily the U.S. suffered no casualties and we had to use multiple bombs and missiles to blow up IRGC vehicles that tried to drive up the mountain and also those that tried to drive to the airstrip." 2/2

Details about the rescue op for the U.S. Weapon Systems Officer, via a U.S. military official: "The mountain top area on the left is where the WSO was hiding (he ejected 5ish miles northwest of there). The right area is the makeshift landing strip where they landed 2 C-130s and had 4 MH-6 Little Birds. "One Little Bird flew to that mountain top area and rescued the WSO and brought him back to the landing strip. And of course the two C-130s' nose gears got stuck in the dirt. So after a few hours they had to bring in three AFSOC Dash-8s to fly out the rescued WSO and the 100 or so personnel involved in the op." 1/2

The bid “?” Are they underwriting right ? Volume list fundamental to spread risk , but how about the MLR risk ? AC , how much of the RA is improved by gaining market share in specific state ? Also is there a “ceiling” in RA to compensate for bad underwriting of peers ? Happy Easter bud

Average monthly insurance premiums for Florida for 2026… Even after a 28% weighted increase, $OSCR remains one of the cheapest. That is the AI + Tech-first advantage.

@investingwithac @MoodyWriter13 There is no day offs. “Today was difficult, tomorrow is easy “ special ops training … Look at your contract : it says availability 24x8

@DonGreco21 @MoodyWriter13 Working on new articles! I have a day off tomorrow , and with working on them tonight too, I will get one out soon :)

For everyone holding $OSCR (like I do) who wants to better understand the risks, I’ve written something here. True conviction only comes from knowing both the upside and the risks. Happy to be corrected. @fwriter/note/p-192591212?r=1485tu&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@fwriter/note/…

@investingwithac @MoodyWriter13 I expect you to focus on the analysis and have the report ready 8 am Australia time. I paid the exorbitant fees of yours and we need first dibs

One more thing on the 2.5 billion cash number… Scott made it clear that they need $50 mill for each 1 billion in premiums… The 2.5 billion “real cash” is correct per posting date, every company has their liabilities… but to asses correct cash, taking the, at the time, 4 billion - 1.5 billion benefits payable, gives the “general” “real cash” amount for an insurance company, because it essentially takes out the COS payables… That 2.5 billion is net of benefits payable, which is comparable to other companies, because that 1.5 payable is “locked” to a degree. Of course calculating excess cash from ALL short-term liabilities is different, but still puts them in a strong position as of Q4 2025… But from an insurance regulation stand point, $OSCR is in a really strong position :) Per Q4 earnings, they have ~$1 billion in surplus in the insurance subsidiaries. To better understanding their liabilities as well, risk adjustment payables are due roughly September of the following year per CMS, which is extremely beneficial for a growing company :) (check photo for example) So current liabilities for RA payable, a good chunk of it, is due further than it may appear! “We ended the year with approximately $5.5 billion of cash and investments, including $414 million at the parent. As of December 31, 2025, our insurance subsidiaries had approximately $1 billion of capital in surplus, including $315 million of excess capital. To help frame our capital position in the context of our growth outlook, I want to spend a moment on regulatory capital requirements. While individual states vary, a useful rule of thumb is that for every $1 billion of premiums, we are required to hold approximately $50 million of capital, which reflects roughly 55% quota share reinsurance ceding percentage for 2026. Overall, our capital position remains very strong. In closing, 2025 marked a shift in the individual market dynamics. Oscar has been in the ACA since its inception.” Please please PLEASE counter if you think differently… You posted a genuinely strong article, and I haven’t seen many good ones at all.

@investingwithac She is a keeper

My gf realizing we are listening to $OSCR earnings for yet another drive. Time to listen to 2024’s again :) I squeezed Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 into last night’s drive haha!

@investingwithac @longriverCM Dos not matter. Terrible analysis and no real points … no ??

@DonGreco21 @longriverCM That is fair, definitely possible. Maybe AI conclusion with a bad rewrite? Grammar isn’t good enough for AI…

$OSCR has become one of those stocks that tests an investor's patience. There are not many healthcare companies that can still generate this much debate after falling near their lows. Oscar Health is one of them. The stock has been under pressure, sentiment is weak, and many investors have moved on. But sometimes the best opportunities appear when expectations are at their lowest. I already own shares, and personally, I would become much more interested if the stock falls below $10. They have some very important issues to fix. I hope they can deliver. If not, well, I can have a short thesis on them as well.

@investingwithac @longriverCM AC I think this is pretty much AI generated… regurgitating up and down the financial statements without relating to the industry nor company mechanics. Pretty much bad intel … replying we kind of validating it …

I recommend you dive into the timing of risk adjustment payments, how insurance pricing works and is calculated, and the true impacts to the MLR equation from the top to bottom… Listen to, or relisten to the Q4 report on the insurance economics, I’ve listen to the last few quarters multiple times to better understand… Underpricing for member isn’t what happened. “High growth is good, don't get me wrong. But in insurance, underpricing can be a liability. It seems like it's an issue they are dealing with.” Unexpected market morbidity hit every insurer, pricing was calculated stable to a degree, and expecting typical year-over-year costs. It wasn’t underpricing, it was medical cost and utilization shock for the entire market. Understanding why pricing was wrong and how it is being fixed in 2026 is important… Risk adjustment payments aren’t due till end of 2026, like August/October… which is only such a liability because they skewed so healthy… So they continue to gain a “float” on the cash + cash added from higher Q1 operating margins and any cash growing activities… “the core issue is the Medical Loss Ratio (MLR). Medical expenses grew by 36.6%, significantly outpacing premium growth of 27.8%. The company is essentially paying out more in claims than it is taking in relative to its growth.” For MLR, it is important to understand why this surge happened… expiring ePTCs and members getting care before it expires is a big portion of it… There is a lot going on in this article, but I think you need to filter out the unnecessary and polish this up and revisit it for a strong proper thesis… It almost seemed as if you tried to argue good or bad for every single line item on the BS/IS…. Highlight the important stuff :) good or bad! 2025 was clearly not great, how is 2026 going to be different and better… They have a significant amount of cash all things considered based on insurance regulations and have spent years shaping the business for the expiration of the ePTC’s… They made it through 2025 with strong liquidity, and record membership, with strong price increases and metal mix… Send me a dm I can help you understand it a little better for any questions…. Or check out my deep dive on YT/substack :) You need a good mix of analyzing the actual business economics and the financials… the why, what and how :)

Siyul I follow uoi for long time and we agree to disagree since the $6 SoFi print ! I am super excited about your post as your antithesis is a great $OSCR bull case . You are serious guy dude , MOL is hardly in the ACA market and what they have got their asses kicked . You can extrapolate to Oscar with just “I don’t believe theory” . Have you checked their guidance , videos , presentations and who the CEO is ? Just to give you a hint : ICHRA Cheers Ps follow @investingwithac for better information

As a $MOH long, ofc I read $OSCR 4Q25 ER. Oscar is a ~pure ACA Marketplace player. Its 4Q25 MLR at 95.4%. For 2026: It guides 1200 to 1300 bps MLR improvement AND 50% revenue increase. stock 📈 10% as if no one questions how it raises premiums significantly while adding members. What an investor base $OSCR got. (will read script to confirm if any sane mind exists😂) fwiw, Molina projects a similar MLR improvement in Y26, but anticipates that only 1/3 of existing members will renew. And still nobody believed it.

@FunOfInvesting that's pretty disgusting post... and I am far from puritan.... sends all kinds of wrong messages and implications. grow up

Lord help me imma blow up my account because this market tempts me daily.

@cialuTrading Have no idea what you saying. Random walk hypothesis looks like....

@DonGreco21 Furus called for a different cycle (already bottomed and ready to go up) and I’m only highlighting that $OSCR is in line with the market. Don’t fall in love for a stock, it’s a blunder.

$OSCR At the 52-week low, this stock is cursed 🚨

Siyu smacked you so hard that even my cheeks are hurting. This C community are not some random $50 stock pinching investors. Is a collective of people with thousands of years of experience, who puts their own capital at risk. You had little luck timing the market volatility to prove a point that “appeals to an inappropriate authority “ . Nonetheless, you cannot believe in luck if you analyze or invest Not being belligerent MW mouthpiece but you sound like a second year analyst out of a B class school. That’s the beauty of X. The new Agora . I would definitely suggest reading Pericles Funeral oration . You will become a much better investor

@siyul @stoked_on_waves You’re missing the point. Level 3 combined with short term financial incentives leads to inflation of profit metrics that sucks investors in who cannot disaggregate the future (anticipated) profits from valid, current profits.

I know $BUR and $SOFI well, have read your reports, and found merit in your writing. However, using today's appeals court's reversal of Burford's $16 billion win to support your questioning of SoFi's Level 3 FV is: a). Incohesive and intellectually dishonest by employing rear-view hindsight. b). shows your mindset of "I made up my mind, just throw me any 'evidence' to reinforce my thesis." In Burford's case, it shows legal claims are volatile by nature (e.g. where were you in 2022/23 when Burford won the trial?), has nothing to do with your allegation of SoFi's loan assets FV at all. As someone who knows the context of both cases well, I find this post misleading and bigly reduces your credibility in SoFi's report.