Don~Cassava

Possible #btc move

@txtdaritaxpayer Mereka adalah "tangan bersih" Yg menghitung "uang kotor" x.com/i/status/20519…

@iScienceLuvr Putting “Ph.D.” in your social media name is a sure sign of a pompous retard

x.com/i/article/2049…

@BigAlphaID Persiapan jatuh tuh oil. Volum makin lemah. Harga ga mampu dorong volum. Minyak jatuh Rupiah naek JCI naek. Amati 2 minggu dari sekarang.

@BigAlphaID Persiapan jatuh tuh oil. Volum makin lemah. Harga ga mampu dorong volum. Minyak jatuh Rupiah naek JCI naek. Amati 2 minggu dari sekarang.

The Obituary, As Usual, Is Premature. (Read the Plumbing, not the Panic!) As @Cheytax_1 flagged, X timeline suddenly thick with Macro Reads, most engineered for Doom Bait, distorting proper signal. Every twelve years Indonesia is declared finished. 1998. 2013. Now 2026. The reading is reliably wrong, this is not a default event. Hardly. It is a Market Premia Repricing, made uglier by improper Govt Navigation. But should capable hands of Jakarta wake up, easily Passable. For the time now that it is not, we read, we positioned. Below : The Premises : Jakarta would remain Logical and Current, all tools at their potent disposal (Yes Even Cutting Expenses is a tool) Exchange Rates, and Real Rate Differential. Is means of shock absorbing. Even measured depreciation is preferrable to exhausting import cover ratio. Coming out of the shock, cycle begin anew. Business as usual, Indo was operating under this macro anchor. In SMI era. Picture 1 - The Gravitational Field Picture 2 - The Pragmatic Opportunity 3 year forward 10Y USD swap rate at 4.2% sits a hair below the 4.4% post 2013Taper peak meaning the market priced higher for longer not as a cycle but as new resting heart rate of dollar liquidity. For Indonesia this matters in every rupiah of sovereign refinancing, every dollar of corporate rollover, every BI reserve calculation now lives under a permanent ~150bp uplift in the global riskfree rate versus the 2010s. The "free money" world that incubated Indonesia's foreign-investor SBN share is gone, 14% presence now to the peak of 39,% back then. the forwards say it is not coming back any soon. EM/US fair value gap at +1.3%, but Indonesia having wider premia asked is with reason. IndoGB is generously priced versus fair value, because fair value itself has deteriorated: fiscal trajectory, capital account outflow, reserve drawdown, and BI that held 4.75% since October not out of conviction while defending through FX. The carry is real. Our "fair value" anchor moves. The dissonance and finance plumbing : Onshore INDOGB Comrades, Favor belly of the curve, not long end. The fiscal supply is structural; The 5-7Y sector gives most of the carry. Timing. optionality on BI's reaction function. If BI hikes 25bp next week, another 25-50bp post fuel hikes. front end shall reprice and IndoGB curve bear flattens, Position for the curve shape. Three rules for this cycle. One: do not confuse repricing with default. Two: do not confuse fiscal drift with collapse. Three: do not confuse a noisy timeline with a thesis. Jakarta has tools, history, and capable hands waiting to be used. Onshore, we earn the carry, shorten the duration, and wait for the curve to do the work. Pragmatism is alpha when everyone else is selling doom poetry.

@RivanKurniawan Kalo menurut chart sih DPR diem aja ntar naek kok. Paling lama 2 minggu. 🤣🤣🤣