Donal Cuddy

All Ireland Qualification chances. Down are at 60%. The likely outcome, but far from a foregone conclusion. It's easy to overestimate their chances because every event that can push them out is in itself is very unlikely, but they all add up. The chance of any outsider making a provincial final is about 50%. If that happens Down can save themselves by making the Ulster final (3%), or if their position gets taken by a team from someone outside of Leinster, then in about a quarter of those cases Kildare save them by making the Leinster final. While teams listed at the bottom qualify in all sims in my model, there are ridiculous scenarios where those outside the top 6 can miss out.