Zeneca🔮@Zeneca
Are FantasyTop cards overvalued?
Some thoughts i've had bounding around in my head on why they maybe are and aren't at the same time, applying to the wider NFT and crypto space as well:
First of all, all of this is batshit crazy. We need to recognize and appreciate that because sometimes we get lost in the haze of it all, but lol, we're trading the most intangible of intangible assets and the "value" of them all is "what's the next person gonna pay for it?"
Greater fool theory, with a twist, at least, hopefully. When you add in gamification, flex points, collectibility, and that dreaded word "utility", you can start to account for some level of value in all this digital nonsense we're trading.
Bringing it back to the idea of "things" being both over/undervalued at the same time -- I think there's case to be made that entire swaths of things can be overvalued but within that subset of things, there can be mispriced/undervalued things.
They are only undervalued relative to the rest of the (potentially) overvalued things.
To give a more concrete example, let's look at FT cards.
How many times have people said/thought "omg this card is so undervalued b/c look at the views the person is getting, and the algo changes coming bro, oh and I know they're gonna tweet a lot this week because they're taking the game seriously now, and they were intentionally sandbagging all week" and on and on?
And you know what, there's truth in all of that -- there ARE cards that have been very undervalued relative to the other cards, while at the same time, potentially, being overvalued if the entire asset class of FantasyTop cards has peaked/topped/will never hit new ATHs.
Now I don't know wtf is gonna happen with these jpegs of influencers. I'm personally bullish, I love the idea, I love the game, I think the team is great, I think the community is great, I think it's fun, I think it's novel, I think they have a viral marketing flywheel that is extremely effective.
But we've also seen this narrative a million times before, and every. single. time. there is a massive (MASSIVE) correction at some point. The difficult part is figuring out if that's now, or if everything is gonna 20x first and then we correct back down and perhaps hit a point higher than where we currently are (or not, can obv easily all go to literal 0 too).
Part of the game is figuring out where we are in the hype cycle, how the artificial incentives play into it all, what things will be like when those go away, and whether the risk/reward is there for you to be yeeting money into these things at this point in time (and keeping them in these things at every point in time that you choose to do so).
To figure out whether people are still gonna care and pay attention a month from now, 3 months from now, 6 months from now.
To figure out if it's worth selling now and trying to buy back later, or selling never never coming back, or holding through the dip, or doubling down and buying more.
You gotta do it for yourself though. You just have to have your own conviction in these things or it all falls apart when it all falls apart.
I think you can apply this framework to NFT projects, meme coins, just about anything. I see it all the time in this space. It used to be that rare-traited bored apes fetched a crazy premium (some still do), so if you saw one near the floor you could snap it up thanking your lucky stars and near-instantly flip it for a healthy profit.
That was all well and good until the price of apes dropped 90%. If you had neglected to flip in time, your "good buy" of the undervalued asset has very quickly turned into bagholding an extremely overvalued asset.
Be careful buying the "free" or "omg so undervalued" thing if the whole asset class might be overvalued. But also, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Hypothetically short these things and they could go parabolic, hypothetically leverage long and they could bleed and bleed and bleed.
Figure out your own strategy, use sound bankroll management, and manage your risk.
Worst thing you can possible do in crypto is go all in and lose it all - the opportunity cost of not being in this space with money to play with is monumental.
Anyway. A lot of words said, hopefully you found some value in them.