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@hkuppy When a ram is stuck with its horns in a hedge, it cannot go forward, and it cannot go backward. Yi Ching said this ~2,500 years ago.
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Dragon Field
502 posts
Dragon Field
@DragonFieldInvt
Both life and investing are following the ancient principles outlined in Tao and I Ching. They change, evolve, never end. Not investing advices.
Arkansas, US Katılım Ağustos 2025
159 Takip Edilen116 Takipçiler
@Jon_Costello_ I just dropped an article on my $CNR and $BTU trades.
dragonfieldinvesting.substack.com/p/a-capesized-…
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@Jon_Costello_ Go with $CNR and $BTU for now, as I posted on March 13.
x.com/DragonFieldInv…
Dragon Field@DragonFieldInvt
$CNR, $BTU: Has the LNG-to-coal switching for power generation in Asia already started?
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My take on the prospects for thermal coal producers amid a sustained LNG disruption. $CNR $BTU $HCC $AMR
hfir-ideas.com/p/idea-us-coal…
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@unusual_whales It’s nice that JP can speak freely of his views, thanks to Mr. TACO and his Department of Injustice.
They always achieve the opposite of their goals, which is just so amusing!
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Jerome Powell: "If you look at total core inflation, it's about 3%. Some big chunk of that, around 1/2 or 3/4, is actually tariffs."
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Dragon Field retweetledi
$CNR, $BTU: Has the LNG-to-coal switching for power generation in Asia already started?
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@zerohedge G7 is irrelevant. Trump wants G2 to rule the world. If he can’t get it, he would settle for G5: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and the great United States of America.
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@lhfang There were so many people posting about "the war is about containing China", or "China is cooked". Haven't had much in the last week, though.
I missed the brainless people's cheap entertainment.
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China will watch every failure of the U.S. and learn from it as the U.S. bleeds debt, allies, material, and control of the gulf fighting Israel’s war. The schizo neocon take from weeks ago that this war was actually about containing China is one of the worst takes of the year.
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@hkuppy Well, Dr. Slop has a different view than yours, Kuppy.
x.com/DragonFieldInv…
Dragon Field@DragonFieldInvt
I am curious what gives Dr. Torsten Slop of Apollo the confidence that the 4-6 weeks of instability will result in 50 years of stability in the oil market?
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Trump can TACO, burrito and chimichanga, but nothing will open Hormuz unless Iran wants it open. We can’t go home with Hormuz shut and missiles raining down on our friends. The only way out, is through Iran..
As scary as that sounds, I think we’re going to mobilize serious boots on the ground. That takes 6+ months. No one’s portfolio is positioned for half a year of this chaos…
Kuppy@hkuppy
They had all weekend to think something up. The best they could come up with is sailing into a turkey shoot… Think it’s time to accept the obvious. Hormuz opens when the Iranians want it to open. Only way Trump can force the issue, is troops on the ground, but we need a force projection that is Gulf War 1 or larger in scope to do this. That takes 6 months to assemble and involves calling up reserves. Does Trump dare to do this?? Can the world make it 6 months with Hormuz shut?? Feel damn good to be running long vol and lower gross. Gonna be a great opportunity to gross-up as this becomes apparent to everyone else…
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@AzizSapphire Zero for China! It's always amazing to me how the Chinese government prioritizes food and energy security for its people.
Selfish CCP! I was told they are the bad guys all my life.
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Just noticed X's auto-spelling changed "Slok" to "Slop". Not my intention, but it appears xAI is actually more right.
Good job, Elon!
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I am curious what gives Dr. Torsten Slop of Apollo the confidence that the 4-6 weeks of instability will result in 50 years of stability in the oil market?
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@Chartfest1 Would you grab a megaphone when your mother calls about SPX 6500, please?
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Good Saturday Morning Chart Fans!
Was out late last night (March Madness!) so apologies for the lateness.
open.substack.com/pub/helenemeis…
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@INArteCarloDoss Slok’s belief of 4-6 weeks of war in exchange of 50-years of stability is a bit moronic TBH.
x.com/dragonfieldinv…
Dragon Field@DragonFieldInvt
I am curious what gives Dr. Torsten Slop of Apollo the confidence that the 4-6 weeks of instability will result in 50 years of stability in the oil market?
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Does it really matter which of these outlandish claims is true and which is not? Trump’s regime is predatory, treacherous and unreliable. This is the problem now and why historic US allies in Europe and GCC feel betrayed and no longer can rely on US security pact.
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@unusual_whales If you are 30 or older and still believe nonsense like this from WSJ, you probably don’t have a brain. Go there and see it yourself.
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China’s economy is falling behind because of deflation and a weak currency, per WSJ
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@INArteCarloDoss He can't even if he wants to. Truly stuck this time.
x.com/DragonFieldInv…
Dragon Field@DragonFieldInvt
@hkuppy When a ram is stuck with its horns in a hedge, it cannot go forward, and it cannot go backward. Yi Ching said this ~2,500 years ago.
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Show this to the "Iran war is all about cutting off oil to China, and China is cooked" crowd.
Isabella M Weber@IsabellaMWeber
I have studied China for years and have been banging the drum for buffer stocks in essentials like food and energy with Western policy makers. The response was always some version of market fundamentalism: it’s not efficient, it distorts prices etc. Well, here we are.
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@DavidLe76335983 Chinese can take HSR trains if there is a jet fuel shortage. They can drive EVs and restrict ICE cars.
Haven't seen any postings about the "Iran war is about China".
Where are they? Too distressed by their high gas bills?
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Trump said China has 90% of its oil from Persian Gulf
Reality is very different
Oil only account for 1/5 of China energy needs
Of which 70% are imported (14% of energy consumption)
40-50% of these went through Strait of Hormuz (6-7% of energy consumption)
Having 6-7% energy shortfalls will have impact, but not collapsing China
So far China has had no problem getting tankers to pass through Strait of Hormuz
China can also increase its purchase of oil from Russia and other places if there is a shortage
Megatron@Megatron_ron
BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Trump officially calls for help: “We get less than 1% of our oil from the strait. Some countries get more. Japan 95%, China 90%, and South Korea 35% We want them to come and help us with the Strait of Hormuz”
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$BTU and $CNR in the US.
Anas Alhajji@anasalhajji
الفحم يستعيد عرشه.. حتى ملكة الخضر، ألمانيا، تعود له!
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@ed_fin MIGA (Make Iran Great Again)!
At least now we have a firm fix confirming the spot price for the toll is $2M per trip.
What's the ticker and exchange?
x.com/alifarhat79/st…
Not Jerome Powell@alifarhat79
Who made this? Lmao
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Thanks to the stupidity of its foes, Iran is now: making more money selling its barrels (which, by the way, are no longer sanctioned) and via a new tollbooth business.
Truly 12D chess. #winning
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
Financial Times reports that an oil tanker company paid Iran $2 million for secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
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@AzizSapphire Thank you for sharing the chart.
I also find Urals at $110/bbl vs. $108 for Brent and $94 for WTI very interesting. Is this the first time Urals exceeded Brent and WTI?
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Another interesting graph from J.P.Morgan
This graph plots how oil equity (oil companies stocks) correlates to oil prices volatility. During demand boom, supply shock and supply surplus.
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TBH, I have felt tired interacting with some self-proclaimed "quality investors". It almost feels like they would rather be intellectually "right" than make money.
That's what inspired me to write, "Approaching Investing with A Beginner's Mind".
dragonfieldinvesting.substack.com/p/approaching-…
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$BRO vs $KNSL
On Feb 11, I speculated that, in the short- to medium-term, KNSL was likely to underperform BRO on a relative basis.
We are now over a month since that post, KNSL is underperforming BRO by 10%. While I don't want this to sound like a victory lap, I just want to remind everybody that there were plenty of signs that BRO had stabilized to some degree, but KNSL was not. But these signals are available only to those who are willing to listen.
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