Mizer@MizerXBT
What was / is my reasoning for these shorts?
In this messy $BTC chart I’m showing you some of the things I have in mind as the “most likely” scenarios. I know some people aren’t satisfied unless you give them one single direction and that’s it, but if you’ve been trading for a while you know you always need a map and context of all the most likely possibilities that can play out.
First of all, why am I betting so heavily on price going down if momentum has clearly improved and is leaning more toward the long side?
These shorts are supported by many reasons, but the initial and main one was a sweep of the lows marked on the chart. As the days went by, more and more reasons appeared that strengthened my idea that price had to drop into certain levels.
To start with, we have those untouched lows around 83k. On top of that we have two CME gaps (which always get filled, usually sooner than later), both marked on the chart.
There’s a lot of liquidity below 86k, with numbers that I think are very likely to get taken.
On HTF 94k is a resistance $BTC has been unable to break for quite a while, and once again it’s been rejected multiple times. Keep in mind that yesterday was the day with the largest inflows into BTC, and today has been very strong as well. And even with all of that BTC still hasn’t been able to break the 94k resistance.
$BTC has been in an uptrend over the last few days and since the start of 2026, and as I said both spot and perps have been bidding hard with a lot coming from spot (a good sign for bulls). But what do you think happens if with all the strength we’ve had these days, we still can’t get through 94k?
You get late longs chasing, longs aping every mini dump, which keeps price afloat and creates an illusion of “strength”, but that strength is only real if it’s backed by spot bid. The moment spot bid starts to fade you have a long list of reasons for BTC to move down. And at that point: late longs get trapped, some start capitulating, spot bid has cooled off so there’s no strong absorption, heavy liquidations kick in… and before you know it BTC has gone where it wanted to go: lower.
I’m also not saying I’ll hold my shorts all the way down to 83k. I’d love for it to get there, and I’m not ruling it out completely, but it’s obvious there are many levels before that where price could find a solid reaction, and I’m not sure I want to take the risk of riding it all the way down. I’ll play it based on the PA.
That’s the short version of my reasoning behind these shorts. That said, it’s undeniable BTC could keep pushing higher and break the resistances mentioned if bid stays this strong. In my opinion that’s very unlikely and the downside reasons weigh much more, but you still have to keep it in mind.
I don’t marry my bias, so if people keep bidding insanely hard I’ll cut the shorts for a loss and move on to the next play.
With this post I’m not trying to convince anyone that shorts are better or that you should close your longs, or that if you’re long you’re going to lose, etc… I’m simply trying to express what I have in mind for this play as many people asked (even though there are many other factors I haven’t mentioned here, this is the skeleton of the idea).
Long or short, I wish you good luck.
$BTC
