

Dr. Duhamel Adames
55.1K posts

@Duhamel_Adames
RT no son mi opinión. Todo tiene un propósito en la vida.






One of the biggest indicators of #ElNiño on the way is how much subsurface heat has built up in the West/Central Pacific in response to recent westerly wind bursts. Studies have shown these upper ocean heat anomalies tend to be a good statistical predictor of ENSO a few months out. I took a look at the historical data - the subsurface heat averaged across a few domains for January is comparable to this point in 1997, and warmer than the 2009, 2015, and 2023 events. That doesn't guarantee we're gonna have a super Niño (atmospheric forcing will be important), but it shows how far along we are already. 1997 1 .54 .49 .56 2009 1 -.32 -.77 -1.08 2015 1 0.28 0.22 0.15 2023 1 0.40 -0.03 -0.24 2026 1 0.64 0.45 0.49







