@chainshinobi @BlairPring81213 Do you use Hurst Time Cycles for these rough date periods and forecasts? Or a mixture of different types of time/duration analysis?
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NightWolf
3.1K posts
@BlairPring81213 Whatever it would be…a recession or an exchange collapse or a renewed war or 10/10 on steroids…or a powerful hack….the definition won’t matter when the expected black swan event hit in summer 2026 mid Q2-early Q3
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Local $BTC bottom in Q1.
Short, violent outperformance from #ALTS and it won’t last long.
Think around 40 to 60 days max.
Fast. Aggressive. Designed to catch most off guard.
The ones who exited before 10/10 and stepped into the #alts blood between Nov 21 → Feb/March 2026 will be sitting on serious profits in a very short window, riding that Q1 → early Q2 push.
The ones who didn’t take profit, who failed at capital preservation ?
They likely won’t even break even but this window will help them recover a large portion of what was lost during the bleed especially if they did consistently buy the blood around December 19 2025 and February/march 2026.
That’s the psychological bait 🪤
Then comes the shift.
Somewhere between end of May → June 2026, a new Black Swan appears.
An event strong enough to wipe out the renewed euphoria and the “new cycle” narrative that will be born during that short outperformance phase.
After that:
$BTC and #ALTS go lower than current levels
Market searches for a true final bottom around Aug / Sept 2026 (Q3)
Followed by a period of sideways, boring, confidence-killing price action
Only after that reset…
A new uptrend begins building late Q4 2026 into 2027 expanding into a broader move that can carry into 2028.
This is not a straight line.
It’s a sequence of precision phases
relief → trap → reset → rebuild.
All scenarios are personal views and speculation based on market structure and timing models.
ChainShinobi@chainshinobi
Also, I expect another Black Swan event around end of May → June 2026. Something strong enough to send crypto back into the realm of shadows, with $BTC well under 50K sometime between summer 2026 and early Q4 2026. And this time, it won’t be noise. This Black Swan will be the event that washes away all the renewed euphoria created around exit windows if my outperformance scenario plays out because once it does, they’ll need to introduce something strong enough to make people round trip once again 🎯
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The good thing about trading?
Even if you never become profitable, you still go on the deepest spiritual journey of your life.
You start wanting money…
you end up discovering:
Your ego issues
Your impulse control problems
Your fear of uncertainty
Your need to be right
You came for profits.
You got forced into self-awareness.
Trading really said:
“Oh you want money? Cool. First fix your entire personality.”
It’s the only industry where before paying you…
it turns you into a better human first
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@mr_abundance_ Inspirational, you're a beast - congrats on your success 👏
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I used to work 4 jobs X7 days a week, 360 days a year, for years.
Monday -Friday:
4am-8am retail/labour job, 9am-6pm+ corporate job.
Saturday-Sunday:
6/8am-11am = study.
12 midday-10pm weekend manager job.
Holidays & Commute time = entrepreneurial work, gym, martial arts, taking out my loved ones or hospital visits.
Toilet breaks, lunch breaks = study.
Yes, I lived off 2 hours sleep often, to provide,
to break the chains of poverty legally.
Did it leave scars, yes.
But, it was the price to be paid to start becoming the hero I was searching for.
Every job that I dropped, I replaced with studying the charts, and then my psychology.
If you're wondering why I'm outperforming,
it's because I outwork.
Physically, spiritually, psychologically, I pour more in than you've ever seen in your life time.
I continue to out study, out backtest, out mentee, out mentor, out rest, out gratitude, out give, out innerwork with every moment, to keep making quantum leaps in my life and bringing people up with me.
I've known death, I've know darkness.
I've only just scratched the surface of life and light.
I choose to live abundantly and shine brightly with every day I'm graced to experience.
I'll continue to do my best, and surrender the rest.
There is no separation, just infinite co-creation.
Together we rise.
Trader Alchemy.
Ascension.
Abundance | Capital Rotation@mr_abundance_
If you’re reading this, know one thing: I actually care. I’ve lived through things most wouldn’t wish on their enemies: • Friends murdered. • Family/Parents Dead to Cancer • Homelessness. • Isolation — zero family, zero friends. • Being the sole carer for my siblings as a child. • Bankruptcy. • Trauma — physical, emotional, psychological. You think anyone was there for me in those lowest moments? No. I can’t promise advice that solves everything. But I can offer my ideas — for education, for entertainment, and sometimes for payment. Many have made serious money from what I’ve shared. Many have shifted their psychology in ways that changed their lives. Some things I can’t share. What goes down in private must stay private. And yes, there are things happening behind the scenes I genuinely cannot put on social media. I give away so much for free. Some things will be paid. If that makes you think it’s just hype or marketing — good luck to you. But here’s the truth: I take time to answer DMs. I care. If you’re going through a tough time, I can’t promise things will get better. But I can promise things will change if you get better. Tough times don’t last. Tough people do. Stay strong. Be bold enough to ask for help. Cherish momentum. Cherish the ones who check in on you. Cherish every single day — because one day, it really will be your last. When the pressure builds and you finally surrender… that’s where the shift begins. That’s when you align with Universal Intelligence, with “Allah,” with “God.” Letting go of struggle is the doorway to letting in success — in every area of life. And if this post feels weird to some of you? That’s okay. Everything meets you at the level you’re at. Life has turning points. Markets have turning points. The question is: will you use the next one to shift to a higher frequency/trajectory? From the heart — I wish you the very best that life has to offer. ~ Mr Abundance Someone who cares.
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@mr_abundance_ Next level shiznit right there, especially that you forecasted this stuff so long ago! I'm paying strong attention to everything you drop!
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ETH +20% target reached, congrats everyone.
Hedge shorts taken.
Some Profits taken.
I've done my best to put you all in the best position to profit from these moves, even with low time frame updates to scalp or make continuation entries.
If I've been helpful, kindly comment a message, give a like and show some support.
This really is world class information for free.
I'll need to take a bit of a step back from here as watching the charts on the low timeframe,
giving live trading public is mentally tiring.
So, I simply need to be self aware and have self care.
Protect my mental health by taking more rest.
Grateful🙏
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$ETH - Could you handle this?
Key Swing Bottom Pivot Dates:
Early November 2025, Early Feb 2026
Bias is negative money flow from Equities into Early November as Commonality Confluence.
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@_Crypflow_ AMAZING THANK YOU, SUPER APPRECIATED! 🙏 🫶
can't wait to see it! 🤙
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This Exit Mastery is the upgraded version of the first profit blueprint. I've been working on this upgrade for the last couple of months. Because you bought the altcoin profit blueprint you'll get the upgraded version for free as a thank you to be part of the first CrypFlow launch. I have added a Bitcoin take profit plan, upgraded the spreadsheet and much more. Your return on investment will be huge mate 👊🏻
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Altcoins will have their moment again. The next wave will come.
When that time comes, most traders will trade based on emotion. Exiting too early, too late, or not at all.
Watching months of profit disappear in days.
After months of refining the first version of the exit Mastery Framework with community feedback, I turned it into a must-have for every trader.
A complete system to secure profits when the next wave hits.
It gives you a clear, step-by-step structure to lock in gains, protect capital, and navigate every cycle with confidence.
You will know exactly when to take profits, how much to sell, and when to step out completely, without emotion, hesitation, or stress.
It includes the Exit Mastery Spreadsheet, an automated tool that tracks your targets, scaling, and portfolio in real time, linked to live crypto prices.
A framework you can use cycle after cycle for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
This is not about guessing tops.
It is about staying in control and securing profits.
Stay tuned 🤙🏻 You don’t want to miss this.
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Another 6-fig week, the month just started.
5-figure years became 5 figure days.
6-figure prop firm accounts became 6-figure weeks & days on personal accounts.
I have multiple accounts.
This is not a flex, it's a milestone.
I'm incredibly grateful for how trading has helped fast track my personal growth and been a vehicle for financial freedom for me.
I've taken large chunk of profits on my accounts as I reached my rule for de-risk threshold on exchanges.
Hard work (studying, hours on the charts) is powerful, but, more is the inner work, learning to surrender.
Someone who used to work 4 jobs, 7 days a week, 2 hours sleep day to provide for me and the people I care about.
I've known pain, I've know death, I've know homelessness, I've known hopelessness.
Now I know riches, I know gratitude, I know fulfillment, I know hopefulness, I know success.
All that I have is by the grace of something greater.
I had to let go of resenting the forces outside of my control and learn to let go and trust that since all of nature calls for evolution, then surely...
If I simply control what I can, then truly, whole heartedly surrender to the will of something greater to also guide me in a path of evolution and expansion, then by natural forces of the universe I too must expand. Flowing with the current not against it.
I learned to not be a "maxi" for some asset.
But instead, be a 'maxi' for myself.
I learned not to idolize mentors, but expect to learn from and exceed them.
I learned to not judge others, but use them as mirrors for my own introspection and self development.
I leaned that anything I admire or despise in others is a trait that exists in me to some degree.
I learned nature calls for evolution and expansion.
I learned the power is in the present.
Every trade is a vote for the trade you are becoming.
Every moment is a vote for the person you are becoming.
Become the hero you were desperately searching for.
Take the risk of investing in yourself.
Trading courses, spiritual coaches, books, fitness memberships, psychologists, therapists, pay for the seminars.
You'll feel like some were a waste of time.
But investing in yourself is never a waste.
Think of it more like making a cake.
It requires many ingredients not just "one thing".
Be more inclined to take a risk on yourself than on the markets. YOU, are worthy of investing in.
Hard work got you here, but you need to evolve.
You need to learn to thrive not just survive.
Treat both your thoughts and actions as affirmations.
Obsess with finding ways to focus on opportunities and GENUINE reasons to be grateful.
Do not tolerate negative self talk.
Turn "I suck at this" to "I'm getting better at this", "I'm learning how to master this craft".
Then, take the actions to make it true.
Consciously write down proof that you are becoming the version of self that effortlessly achieves your goals as a basic standard.
Shift the scales of beliefs in your brain, by constantly feeding it proof that you are both doing the work and achieving tangible evidence of become a new self.
Focus so incessantly and vivaciously on the wins and the work that supports your becoming, that your brain is forced to let go of the debate that you are a new you right now and your goals are inevitable, unavoidable and the basic level standard of your survival threshold now.
Let go of who you have been so that you can fully embody the higher level of self you are becoming.
This is Trader Alchemy, this is Ascension.
Abundance | Capital Rotation@mr_abundance_
Closed out my trades here. No one cares, u're just following for setups to make money but going to share this anyways. Having a VERY tough time w/ mental health, I am seeking help irl.🙏 Need to help myself before I can try help u guys again
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Just finished a stream after a while.
Energy was 🔛 again.
Do you guys actually like the streams?
I don’t need to do them I’m just trading anyway.
But if the energy connects, I’ll keep doing more.
For me it’s not content. It’s input.
No filter. No performance. Just me.
Drop your thoughts below.
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I went through something very similar late last year. I sacrificed far too much of myself for the sake of others.
At the time, I thought I was doing the right thing: the intentions were always to serve other people...but in the end, I completely burnt out, and combined with being scammed and other nefarious things...I too fell into depression...and haven't felt the same in over 1.5 years...
Nowadays, I'm doing everything I can to "secure the oxygen mask on myself first". Decluttering, and focusing on myself and my family. You're no good to anyone if you don't first take care of yourself.
I really enjoy your content, but it sounds like you need to reset and reboot. Look after number one!
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During this period, I’ve probably found myself in a state of burnout.
In the past few days, my desire and determination to give not just 100%, but 101% of myself in order to please others have led to some troubling episodes: I’ve felt sick, had no appetite, couldn’t sleep, and spent days in a fog of mental confusion.
At first, I thought it was just normal: ordinary fatigue, the kind you carry with you from work…
But recently, I’ve realized it’s something much bigger.
The headaches have become more intense, I’ve had episodes of vomiting, and every time I sit at the computer to look at charts, I’m overwhelmed by a sense of discouragement, almost mixed with depression.
That thing which once gave me satisfaction and positivity for months has suddenly turned into its opposite ..and I’ve blamed myself for it.
Creating videos, producing guides, interacting with people every day, posting here on X, and managing my trades is incredibly draining. I’m sacrificing not only my health but also my personal life.
I’ve been neglecting many people and damaging relationships, even with my parents..all because I’ve been pushing myself to 101% over the past two years.
But this is becoming unsustainable.
It’s not normal to have a constant mental fog and no desire to eat.
It’s not normal to lose sleep because you’re worried about helping others.
It’s not normal to work even while you’re on vacation.
I need rest.
I need to think about myself and that’s something I never do.
One thing I can say: don’t be like me.
Don’t ruin your health for work.
Because there’s nothing more important than yourself ..especially if you want to do great work.
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NightWolf retweetledi
Spirituality and trading.
10X your monthly trading income by raising your consciousness and state of being.
When we combine clear intention, with open heart we open the energetic field we call reality in positive and powerful ways.
If your intentions and desires have not been manifesting, it is probably because you are sending an incoherent message into the field.
Example 1: feeling poor but trying to think rich thoughts.
Trader example: you feel poor, you feel like an unconfident gambler but are trying to think motivational thoughts about passing a prop firm account or getting rich in 1 trade. Instead, you keep wiping out accounts.
Example 2: Saying I'm rich affirmations but taking lack based actions.
So you say I am becoming a full time trader but you don't execute like a full time professional. You don't journal, you don't have predefined entry and stop loss and take profits targets, you don't take action with a clear trading system as would a full time professional trader.
This shows that you are incoherent in the signal you are emitting into he field of consciousness we call reality.
In other words, your messy state if being reflects as the messy PNL results you're seeing.
Thoughts are the language of the brain, feelings are the language of the body.
When both are not in alignment, your behaviour and energy is not in alignment with your goals.
Conscious creations should be met with unpredictable elements of how your goals unfold. The purpose of this that unpredictability and wonderful surprise is that higher levels of consciousness are calling you to grow in a playful way that incentivises you to do the process again and again to level up your state of being and the character you present as you interact with the world.
You set a goal (intention)>> you take on a new state of being (aligned thoughts and emotions, driving aligned behaviours, attraction & interactions with world circumstances >> experience the goal achieved in a way that is outside of your capacity to predict exactly how it would unfold.
Logic, plans and strategy are only helpful if they are being used to help you affirm the new state of being, that new sense of self and as evidence to affirm that your goals are possible and you are moving towards them.
The best trader on the planet will take loses, may fomo or overtrade once in a while.
So loses, fomo, overtrading does not make a failed trader in of itself.
Most important is the Doer behind the doing.
The best traders cut negative self talk as fast as they cut a losing trade.
The best traders master thier emotions too.
You can journal to grow or journal and feel stupid, tell yourself how bad you are, reinforce emotions of shame and guilt.
It's not journaling that makes success. It's not the doing, it's the Doer.
Losers fear losses because it proves they are losers.
Winers are fine with loses becuase it's just an opportunity to learn how to win even more.
The message.
Moment by moment you have the opportunity to tell reality who you are.
Treat thoughts, emotions, actions all as equal affirmations of who you are.
Both wins and losses are an opportunity to respond and tell reality who you are.
Raise your consicousness, raise your sense of self, your profit will raise as a natural reflection of your new state of being.
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@beijingdou REKTSR is a brand new launch, and hence will likely fly 10-20x immediately? Vs REKT being already established and much higher market cap... Harder to move the needle?
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My brain hurts. What is the benefit of buying $REKTSTR vs just buying $REKT?
OSF@osf_rekt
When the original NFT strategy tokens came out, I felt like their format did not match our existing Rekt ecosystem, even though they may match some other ecosystems. For us, we have Rektguy NFTs and $REKT, $REKT was airdropped to all Rektguy holders, rewarded directly to those who have purchased drinks, and continues to be the engine and north star for both @RektBrands and our community. The NFT form of the strategy didn't make sense for us; whichever way you slice or dice it, $REKT and @RektDrinks have very clearly been the drivers of our biggest successes and will continue to be so. They are our focus. After my previous post, @Rhynotic reached out and we got talking about what type of strategy coin could actually make sense for us, and my response was something that would directly drive value to $REKT. The idea of replicating the strategy model, but for ERC20s as opposed to NFTs, was born. It is experimental, not created or run by the Rekt team, and our focus is on $REKT, but in my mind I believe this would work for two reasons: 1. All strategy tokens to date have generated a meaningful amount of buy pressure once launched on the NFT - this would be a direct benefit for $REKT should there be good trading volumes on $REKTSTR, causing substantial buy pressure for $REKT 2. ETH Mainnet tokens often struggle with volume (due to gas fees) - $REKTSTR token would essentially create a new market participant which would be actively buying and selling $REKT, this would improve both liquidity and volumes Of course, there are fears of attention cannibalisation of there being two different tokens, however, I believe the @token_works community has shown that it's been around long enough to continue to want to see these projects, and I think this actually opens up $REKT to a new community, many of who probably are currently not involved and wouldn’t otherwise purchase. Eventually, the ability to launch strategy tokens within the @token_works ecosystem will be decentralised, so at some point anyone could launch some form of a Rekt strategy - this is our opportunity to have a say in where value is directed and make sure its full focus is targeted at $REKT. Of the 10% trading fees, 8% will go towards buying $REKT. As with other models, 1% goes to burning $PUNKSTR and 1% goes to @RektBrands. Of the 1% that comes to us, 79% will be used to accumulate more $REKT for the @RektBrands treasury, with the remaining to be used for federal corporate income tax that will be due on this income. $REKT sees millions of dollars of volume trade every single day, whereas daily Rektguy volumes are often less than $5k. In fact, you will find this to be the case for most NFT projects which have fungible tokens... the cold hard facts are that fungible tokens are generally MUCH more liquid (almost by definition). Consequently I think it's going to be interesting to see how this strategy token works out as theoretically there should be much more active trading and less of a block once a certain number of NFTs have been accumulated, as we've seen with prior tokens. If this works well, I believe it could pave the way for other coins to adopt a similar strategy (now think outside of just NFTs, the universe there is much, much bigger). For us, $REKT will always be our north star and our full focus - this doesn't change a single thing and we will continue to direct all value to $REKT and its success, but I believe this is the best step to take and I'm banking on this being a net positive for $REKT and our community.
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NightWolf retweetledi
“Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishments.”
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I am exhausted. Why? 👇🏻
Crypto is now fully controlled by a few major players with insider information.
Yesterday, we had a perfect clean breakout.
We traded it perfectly. ✅
I spend 16 hours a day on charts and market data to help you all catch these opportunities, almost no sleep.
Within a few hours, we made around 4–5% profit.
Trump insiders were loading up shorts, which I flagged earlier, but the breakout was confirmed with solid spot volume.
I finally decided to grab dinner.
Suddenly Trump again dropped negative posts, and the entire market crashed again.
The pump got completely wiped out.
This is why risk management matters.
I am learning my community to always stay cautious.
Most of the portfolio is in stablecoins.
I think most of the retail traders are now sitting on 5-40% losses as altcoins get rekt again last weeks.
The whole market is hovering around key support levels.
As mentioned before, CPI is being pushed out even during the government shutdown, something that normally doesn’t happen.
Trump’s influence is everywhere.
A good CPI could trigger a pump; strong CPI readings mean better odds for rate cuts, which usually fuel rallies.
But don't forget macro-political tensions are rising:
- Tariffs: Not going to spend another word on this crap.
- Russia–Ukraine: Russia continues to push into Ukraine. Trump’s stance has shifted—he is now opposing Zelensky, despite supporting him a few weeks ago.
- Europe & Russia: The conflict with Russia also serves as a potential distraction for Europe, drawing attention away from other issues.
- Israel–Gaza: Israel has resumed attacks on Gaza. The U.S. is reportedly on the Israeli ground as well, and it seems the plan is to wipe out and rebuild the area. Peace seems unlikely.
- China–Taiwan: China continues to eye Taiwan, and a recent embassy statement confirms long-term intentions. With China stacking massive amounts of gold, this scenario looks increasingly probable.
Honestly, this cycle is nearly impossible to read.
Between political games, insider moves, and global conflicts, if you’re not plugged into the right information, you’re trading blind.
Have a good day. Ted has left the building.
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@JamesBrasco @JakeGagain ya I'm seeing the FUD, pretty gnarly, and who truly knows. IMO, provided you still believe in PEPE/Boy's Club...then you still believe in BRETT.
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@DwadLane @JakeGagain People are fudding it hard. Toshi people are tearing down. It’s down 78% this year. I am knee deep in it. wtf
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