Exit Liquidity

“Software will be fine long term” dog you ever heard of opportunity cost?

It’s so nice Micron gives us a clean eps estimate. Imagine if they said some shit like 93.76 eps. Yk how much easier it is spitting out a forward multiple off of $100 in projected eps lol

@ShiromaMasahiro Interesting, through that view I would agree. Obviously these consumer discretionary orgs trading at 40 p/e are suspect. Walmart and Costco too lol, if you gave big tech that valuation people would lose their shit. Shorting anything? Or just going long the non bubble (AI)?

@Dylhow69 On the contrary, oddly enough I believe the whole market's in a bubble with the exception of AI. AI actually has value backing it.

Bruh $RVI trades at like 2x NAV? How is this not a short?

@infosecatom If they do, that’ll be the signal to everyone to go giga long. “They don’t ring a bell at the top” like buddy lmao

@Dylhow69 Citron will probably do so shortly

@ShiromaMasahiro Eh, looking at it through the lens of detached value. Not necessarily a bubble because it went up, it’s a bubble because it’s X amount over NAV. same thing happened with $MSTR could made a fortune shorting it at like 1.5-2x nav People say AI’s a bubble cuz they only see the char

@Dylhow69 If you look at it that way the whole market's been in a bubble for the past 3 years

@ShiromaMasahiro Fuck lmao. “When I see a bubble I rush in to buy” seems like pretty good advice here

@Dylhow69 2x NAV? That's it?! Those are rookie numbers. STRC was like 30x NAV or something.

@OsoKnotty @Noalgos Hahah great point man, sometimes you just can’t fight the tape. Doesn’t matter how over or under valued it is. Good reminder, I’ll prolly watch from afar if not pick up some cheap leaps.

@Dylhow69 @Noalgos I don’t think you short this one. This one has a narrative that can take up for like 6 months lol. I wouldn’t touch a flagship product when they are about to release another one that requires buy in. lol. If anything. Buy it! 😂

@Noalgos Lowkey, what levels are you looking at to short?

@Dylhow69 it is but not now

@lakshyaa1804 I agree, the fact most of their holdings are software though. Doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. A lot of these private software companies are still private because there’s little demand for their shares (not referencing data bricks)

@Dylhow69 banking on IPO’s of their holdings, that’s driving it up hella

Pain trade is still up

Not even a hater. I’m like dangerously over allocated $MU sub $200. Just also am cognizant of the fact that near term pull backs are healthy

Samsung strike is priced into $MU and $SNDK doesn’t mean they can’t rally. But all you newbies piling into these and $DRAM under that thesis (short dated calls) are gonna be disappointed

I’ll short in the a.m

How high can $MU go? Micron:

Excited to buy $META as an AI winner in the 400’s

@Holt_Caliln The market hasn’t and can’t price in the peak. Hence why anyone invests at all, capitalize on misspricing.

@Holt_Caliln Ima tell you rn. No value will accrue to software, trading at triple digit p/e with negative cash flow and can get vibe coded away in a week. If you apply the “market prices in peak” why invest in anything at all? Ask yourself, what place does software have in the DC buildout?

my general take on this question around fomo is pretty simple “should I buy $MU at $800?” well, if you buy it here and are not ECSTATIC to buy it 20-30% lower on a dip, then you should not give into the fomo being on the sidelines of a trade is so much healthier than thinking you have to chase it buying at ATHs means you are acknowledging that you want to be part of the story but the risk outweighs the reward so you HAVE to accept being ready to DCA fomo happens when you buy something just to buy and then if it dips, you have no idea what you bought so you buy high sell low any fomo buy should be rooted in accepting it is a chase and then being ready to average down in case it collapses or, just don’t chase a name that you missed and be okay with missing it it doesn’t have to be so mentally draining, there many opportunities in the market beyond the names that capture most attention and not being part of them AND not taking the risk of being part of them is okay

@Holt_Caliln Was messing around. Forward p/e isn’t super relevant but can look historically at past cycle peaks. Earnings visibility makes me confident this is undervalued as they’re guiding to $100 of eps next year. Throw whatever multiple you want on it, still undervalued. P/b is sus tho

@Dylhow69 Valuation is a reference point, but markets price growth delivery speed. Do you focus more on P/E itself or earnings visibility?

$MU $EWY $INTC $SNDK

$MU