Ayvard Pernot

@AndreasenJack There’s so much silly noise on this issue but this is very helpful. On the issue of reserves, I found this analysis to be particularly helpful in outlining the specific challenges that come with E&P in the Orinoco belt: linkedin.com/posts/yulia-sh…

Fact from fiction, what is true of Venezuelan oil? I spent this weekend reading/chatting with leaders in the oil industry on what we actually know about the oil situation in Venezuela, and what is likely to be true. Coalescing my thoughts here and let me know here I'm wrong! 🧵

@DaveKeating @sjmk0 Much like the “democracy is on the ballot” point which the Dems pushed last year, most ordinary Europeans really don’t give a damn about intl. law because it’s intangible and is never consistently applied anywhere. I don’t understand how the Brussels twitterati don’t get this.

They told us we were defending Ukraine in order to uphold international law. Big countries can't just unilaterally invade smaller ones, we were told. Now it turns out this was BS. International law actually doesn't matter - or at least not when their master🇺🇸 is doing the violating. There are still good reasons to defend Ukraine in a might-makes-right world in which international law no longer matters. If we don't stop Putin in Ukraine, he will invade the EU next. But I don't ever want to hear again from these cowardly 🇪🇺 leaders that they care about international law. Because they clearly don't. If we are defending Ukraine only because we care about ourselves and our own security in the EU, then let's just openly say so.

One by one, European leaders are tossing their remaining credibility on Ukraine into the bonfire of Trump appeasement. Unbelievable hypocrisy.

@MLiebreich Risk is priced in. Commodity markets have learned that noise =/= actual disruption of flows and usually Trump’s bark is a lot bigger than his bite, especially when markets are at stake (e.g. tariff walk-backs).

Country 9 in global oil reserves has invaded country 1. Country 7 is under sanctions and its refineries are being destroyed. Country 2 is facing off with country 6. There are riots in country 3. Yet oil is only $60/bbl. Is oil just not as critical as it used to be?

@gideonrachman @JavierBlas Have you perhaps maybe just considered the little detail that both of those guys were democratically elected in reasonably fair elections and Maduro was not?

So when China launches a special op to seize the president of Taiwan: or Russia tries to do the same for Zelensky - what exactly do we say? You can’t do that, it’s illegal?

@SStapczynski Who’s he started a war with?

“Negotiated exit” Seizing Maduro after a series of airstrikes stands in contrast to Trump’s repeated promise to end wars and not to start any new ones

Trump says the US captured Venezuela’s Maduro (Venezuela exports <1% of global oil supply. But it has the worlds largest oil reserves) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@ragipsoylu Ah, so a “special military operation” can take 3 hours, not 3 years? Someone should tell Vlad

Maduro was captured by the US military's elite unit Delta Force — CBS News

@adam_tooze @JesseJenkins It’s an older term but became formalised in the late 00’s yes, largely because of its political convenience: the left wants RES, right wants FF and both kinda like ☢️. As regards lock-in, that’s a separate issue. Don’t forget states like TX lead the nation on RES buildout.

@EPernot @JesseJenkins I agree. There is a difference. In the US case the key thing in the Obama era is gas, isn't it? Which insofar as it was at expense of coal was a win, but also served to promote lock-in.

@adam_tooze @JesseJenkins Technologieoffenheit in the 🇩🇪 =/= as “all of the above” in 🇺🇸 one. Literally they’re similar terms, figuratively they’re not. The former was used to push efuels, H2-boilers and other crap. The latter is broader and not as loaded. (I lived in 🇩🇪 for years & fluent speaker btw)

@JesseJenkins I of course defer to your expertise @JesseJenkins but why? In the German political context, which is the one I know best and is non-trivial in climate context, it isnt even controversial that "tech openness" discourse functions like this. It was/is a FDP/CDU talking point.

@adam_tooze Adam, with all due respect, you’re far too informed to be sharing stuff from that absolute grifter.

@jsfreed @atrembath Ah she’s a well known crank, always crowing about CCS being evil ad nauseam. She figured out a while back how to make a career from being a professional climate shitposter on twitter and ran with it.

@atrembath Oh my goodness. Thus is either utterly disingenuous or she’s an idiot. I’m not sure which would be worse.

This is so funny.

@AndreasenJack yeah I stole the template from here years ago. It’s just too good to not re-use

@EPernot I have a very similar meme somewhere in the meme files

This article goes through all the greatest hits of missing the mark CCS criticisms Let's go through them🧵 theguardian.com/environment/20…

@EPernot Everytime

@AndreasenJack 3 years on and your meme is as relevant as ever

All the anti-CCS pieces are the same. All the arguments are the same, and although some may be true, they never address the actual solutions to the issue. If you believe we need CCS, if you want it to meet targets, we should spend more money on it, and on alternative pathways.

Visited a pretty big lime plant in 🇫🇷 today Such a cool, underrated industry with applications in so many sectors, possibly the most essential application for CCS Also, lime plants are hella dusty

@olivertedwards @gnievchenko Anyone’s guess tbh. It’s pretty clear though that any CCU application will suffer from the offtake issue, whereas most CCS applications will depend on existing markets shifting to greener products (cement etc) or selling removals which seems easier to justify than CCU materials.

100 certainly looks like a neat price tag, but I’m curious about the discount rates and expected time to get there? At current inflation rates etc. 100 sounds low if scaling it to a level that can sustain that price. How do you expect commoditisation of CO2 (haven’t read your latest ZEP pub) to affect the carbon price in the long run @EPernot?

In 2025 if a DAC company claims to have a pathway to $100/tCO2 removal cost their TEA is full of bs assumptions

@gnievchenko Perhaps in Europe but definitely not in developing countries. It’s bizarre eSAF still gets funding even from EIC despite all of this evidence: I saw this eSAF startup got €6.8m in funding eu-startups.com/2025/09/dutch-…

@EPernot Because 💯 But I also think it’s relatively easy to imagine a 100/tco2 carbon price around the world. Many ETS systems are trending towards it. 200-300 though seems like a far cry tho

@DaveKeating Well is he wrong? It’s not like any of us elected one anyways, despite how certain *ahem* people are acting these days

Is any European leader going to push back against this? Don't hold your breath. Because the way our leaders have been acting, it really is as if they've declared him president of Europe.

@gnievchenko seeing that the market and people seem to be getting slightly colder feet about AI now over this MIT study, maybe they skip data centres and start looking at drone manufacturing or defense tech already?

The hydrogen to data centre career pipeline is strong

Can you tell us how he died, where, and why?