Emmanuel Skoulios

Effrayant pour la démocratie américaine…

America lecturing Europe on prosperity is a broke man in a repossessed Bentley screaming at his neighbour about the hedge. Your GDP is huge. So is the 40 trillion in debt holding it up. Your bridges are collapsing, your roads belong in Lagos, and your city centres are dead malls patrolled by fentanyl ghosts and the occasional shooter. Your life expectancy is stuck in 1974. Your kids learn active shooter drills before the alphabet. Your workers do 90-hour weeks across three jobs before checking out of the planet early. Your mothers give birth and clock back in the next morning with the umbilical cord still attached. Your big holiday is four days in Orlando. Europe just quietly wins every ranking that matters, from healthcare to happiness to not dying in an ambulance bay because the deductible was too high. Try it sometime. The ambulance ride is on us.

Bonne nouvelle, on vient d’apprendre par la Maison Blanche que le détroit d’Ormuz est ouvert, le nucléaire iranien sécurisé, et que le régime des Mollah est tombé …

The sooner we recognize this hard truth—that there’s no military solution to the conflict with Iran—the better off the United States will be. Sheer military force cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz without escalating the war and sucking us into another endless, bloody quagmire that delivers zero benefit to our people. We can’t get rid of the emboldened government in Tehran, regardless of how many leaders we kill. If we try we will end up with a government or failed state, worse than what we have now. The inevitable reality is this: we will have to cut a deal with Iran. We can be pragmatic and do it now on our own terms, or we can keep listening to the same neocons and the Israeli government who got us into this mess, only to cut the same deal after we’ve lost even more. Recognizing that we have hit the point of diminishing returns and pulling out now is not weakness. It is strength—and it’s the right thing to do for the American people.

Ça devient réellement un sketch… no comment…

Quelqu’un pour faire taire « Papa m’a dit » ?

Four days ago, I wrote that after every Trump-Putin phone call, something deranged follows within weeks. I said mark the date. I said the clock is ticking. I was wrong. It took seventy-two hours. Allow me to recap what the leader of the free world has done to his closest allies since that cosy ninety-minute phone call with a man who poisons people in their driveways. Germany: 5,000 troops withdrawn. More promised. The Army’s Long Range Fires Battalion, scheduled to deploy to Europe, quietly cancelled. Germany, which actually met its NATO spending targets, which opened its bases and airspace to American operations, which did everything Trump asked, got punished anyway. Because its chancellor had the audacity to point out that Iran was humiliating Washington at the negotiating table. He was right. That was the problem. Italy: threatened with troop withdrawal because, in Trump’s words, Italy “has not been of any help.” Italy, a founding NATO member. Italy, which hosts tens of thousands of American troops and several critical US military installations. Useless, apparently. Spain: “horrible. Absolutely horrible.” Spain’s crime was refusing to let the United States use Spanish bases and airspace to bomb Iran. A sovereign decision by a sovereign ally. Described by the President of the United States as horrible. The European Union: 25% tariffs on cars and trucks, announced in the same week as the troop withdrawals. Germany builds cars. This was not a coincidence. And through all of this, Vladimir Putin got a ceasefire proposal endorsed, a nuclear diplomacy role handed to him on a plate, and not a single harsh word. Four days ago I predicted one unhinged announcement, one ally humiliated, and one idea so catastrophically stupid that the national security apparatus would spend a weekend trying to undo it. We got four allies humiliated, two economic attacks, and a full military retreat from the continent America spent eighty years promising to defend. I would say I am surprised. But I wrote it down in advance. Which makes this less a prediction and more a schedule. Stay connected, Follow Gandalv @Microinteracti1

Iran just turned American precision against America. Sixteen bases destroyed across eight countries, using satellite data borrowed from China and Russia and munitions that cost nothing. Meanwhile the United States had four years watching Ukraine rewrite the rules of modern warfare under live fire. Learned nothing. Sent an invoice. Insulted Zelensky on the way out. Europe, Canada, and half of Asia signed production agreements with Kyiv instead. Building the new model with the people who actually fought the war. Washington still thinks it is selling the future. It is selling the past at a premium. open.substack.com/pub/gandalv/p/…

@frhaz @RFI @France24_fr @LCI @BFMPolitique Il y a bien des chaines qui relayent aussi au fil des heures les inepties de M. Trump 😇

Il s’appelle Slavosh Ghazi, correspondant de @RFI et @France24_fr à Téhéran, il sévit aussi sur @LCI et @BFMPolitique où après jour il relaie la propagande du régime des mollahs. Jusqu’à défendre le blocus iranien d’Ormuz et et s’énerver quand on lui rappelle la situation précaire de l’économie Iranienne. Comment dire …

@SecScottBessent @mrddmia @SenWarren @PeteButtigieg And if you hadn’t had the stupid idea of your adventure in Iran, airlines would be in much better shape 😡

Had Spirit Airlines been allowed to merge with Jet Blue, it would have given them much more resiliency.   Thanks to @SenWarren, @PeteButtigieg, and all of their friends in the Biden Administration who backed their enthusiastic opposition to the Spirit-Jet Blue merger, dozens of regional airports will now lose service and thousands of jobs will now be lost.

"Pas un comportement d'allié": Bruno Le Maire affirme que "les Européens sont seuls" et doivent "se séparer des États-Unis"

@RnaudBertrand We in Europe would be well advised to take the same decisions… there is enough of this American diktat, which, as far as we are concerned, serves no purpose other than allowing the United States to strip us of our best companies…

What China just did with the blocking statutes against U.S. extraterritorial sanctions sets quite a major precedent, probably the financial equivalent of what happened with rare earths last year (in the sense that this is China taking a major step to push back against a U.S. hostile measure as opposed to taking it on the chin). It's a little complex but, to start with, what many people ignore (and will probably be surprised by) is that - by and large - Chinese companies and financial institutions have largely complied with extraterritorial U.S. sanctions. Anecdotal story on this: I know for a fact, because I personally know the person, that a very famous guy (whose name I won't reveal but that everyone of you would know) sanctioned by the U.S. was in China recently and tried to exchange money at the counter of a random Chinese bank. Just simply exchange dollars for a Chinese yuan, in mainland China. And he was refused, because he is sanctioned by the U.S. - despite the fact that China as a country has absolutely no problem with the person. This goes to illustrate just how much goodwill China extended to the U.S. on this - a Chinese bank, in China, refusing to serve someone China has no problem with, just to comply with U.S. extraterritorial sanctions. It also goes to illustrate why this blocking order marks such a sharp departure. What triggered it is not new sanctions by the U.S. but recent efforts under the so-called "Operation Economic Fury" to dramatically ramp up enforcement of existing sanctions on Iran. The U.S. notably issued at the end of April alerts to financial institutions worldwide - including in China - on "the sanctions risks associated with independent 'teapot' oil refineries in China, primarily in Shandong Province, given their continued role in importing and refining Iranian crude oil" (home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…) Even more importantly, they also specifically went after Hengli Petrochemical Dalian (home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…), one of China's largest private refineries, with 400,000 barrels per day capacity and a parent company (the Hengli Group) that's a Fortune Global 500 company. In effect, what the U.S. extraterritorial sanctions mean is that Hengli - and all other Chinese 'teapot' oil refineries being targeted - is cut off from the dollar system, and any bank, insurer, or trading partner anywhere in the world - including in China - that deals with them risks being cut off too. Which is obviously a major hostile move by the U.S. against China (and, of course, Iran). Except that China, this time around, is not having it. Since 2021 they've had regulations ("Measures to prevent the improper extraterritorial application of foreign laws and measures", mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/zhzc/art/…) that gives the Chinese government power to formally prohibit compliance with foreign sanctions, and that, since this April (morganlewis.com/pubs/2026/04/c…) are also extraterritorial in nature. In effect what these regulations - and their April addendum - say is that if you comply with U.S. extraterritorial sanctions by cutting off a Chinese company, you are violating Chinese law. Any entity - Chinese or foreign - that refuses to deal with a sanctioned Chinese company because Washington told them to can be sued in Chinese courts, fined by MOFCOM, and since April, placed on a 'Malicious Entity List' with asset freezes and trade restrictions. In a nutshell on one side you have the U.S. saying "cut them off or we cut you off" and now China says "well, if you do cut us off we're going to be real nasty with you, in China and potentially beyond." These regulations were - until yesterday - purely theoretical: they've never actually been applied. But, yesterday, China's MOFCOM made it crystal clear this time is different: they used a statement with a triple negative, saying the U.S. sanctions "shall not be recognized, shall not be enforced, shall not be complied with" ("不得承认、不得执行、不得遵守", mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/art/…). In effect you now have companies that are in the middle of this - for instance financial institutions serving Hengli - caught in quite a bind: face U.S. or Chinese hostility. It's a no-win, they need to choose a camp on this. Concretely speaking, given that the overwhelming majority of companies affected are operating inside China, they'll obviously choose the China side. The real question therefore is: Is the U.S. ready to act on its threat and cut off Chinese banks or other institutions that keep servicing these refineries? Because that probably means sanctioning major Chinese financial institutions, which is a whole different level of escalation. The moment the U.S. designates a major Chinese bank for dealing with Hengli, this stops being about Iranian oil and becomes a direct financial confrontation between the two largest economies on earth, which is a much bigger deal with probable consequences for the entire global financial system. Or will the U.S. back off, meaning China would have effectively caught their bluff, showing that extraterritorial sanctions are a lot of bark but not a lot of bite? We'll know in the next couple of weeks I guess. One thing is sure though: whatever happens with these refineries, the broader damage is done. China used to extend remarkable goodwill on sanctions compliance - voluntarily cooperating with extraterritorial sanctions inside its own borders even though it had no legal obligation to respect them. That goodwill has been spent. And, from a U.S. standpoint, a China with less goodwill vis a vis U.S. financial hegemony is undoubtedly a far bigger issue than a few teapot refineries buying Iranian oil.

In just over a year, Trump has made the US weaker, poorer, less respected, and dangerously overstretched. It will take decades to rebuild the standing he has completely destroyed

🤣🤣🤣

Germany is not hosting American troops. It is hosting American power. Amplifying it. Projecting it across three continents. And now, for the first time with real legal and political weight behind it, voices inside Germany are beginning to say out loud: Berlin could shut down every American base on German soil. A fiber-optic cable runs beneath Ramstein Air Base. It carries a signal from a drone pilot in Nevada to an armed aircraft over Yemen. Fraction of a second. Precision. Control. That cable sits on German soil. Cut it, and the strikes do not miss. They simply cannot happen. This week Washington punished Berlin for telling the truth about the Iran war. Five thousand troops withdrawn. A presidential post calling Germany a failure. The language of a tenant who has forgotten whose name is on the deed. Because Berlin can end all of it. Not the 5,000. All 36,436. Every soldier, every satellite dish, every signal passing through German soil on its way to a target over Africa or the Middle East. Spain tore it up. Italy said no. Germany has not moved yet. But it is thinking about it. And what it is thinking about is this: Germany holds the one thing that separates America from every other country on earth. The ability to project military force across three continents simultaneously. Take away the European staging ground and the United States becomes what every other nation in the Western Hemisphere already is. Large. Armed. And unable to reach anyone who does not live next door. open.substack.com/pub/gandalv/p/…

Trump slam the door on our fingers and it hurts but whoever is elected in Nov. 2028, will not reopen it. Americans are tiptoeing out of Europe. They won’t come back.

🔴 Trump annonce vouloir retirer 5 000 soldats américains d'Allemagne. La raison : le chancelier Merz a dit publiquement que les États-Unis étaient "humiliés" par l'Iran. 🚨🚨🚨 Les présidents républicains des commissions des forces armées du Sénat et de la Chambre viennent de dénoncer la décision de leur propre président et c'est rarissime que des élus républicains de cette importance critiquent publiquement une décision de Trump. ▶️ Ce vendredi, le Pentagone a confirmé le retrait de 5 000 soldats américains d'Allemagne dans les six à douze prochains mois, environ 14% des 36 000 soldats américains stationnés en Allemagne. La décision fait suite à une querelle personnelle entre Trump et le chancelier Friedrich Merz, qui avait déclaré cette semaine que les États-Unis étaient "humiliés" par l'Iran au Détroit d'Ormuz et critiqué l'absence de stratégie américaine dans la guerre. Le porte-parole du Pentagone présente cela comme le résultat d'une "revue approfondie de la posture de force du Département en Europe." Les présidents républicains des deux commissions des forces armées du Congrès répondent immédiatement que c'est faux. Roger Wicker (@SenatorWicker) et Mike Rogers (@RepMikeRogersAL) notent d'abord l'absurdité de la punition. L'Allemagne a augmenté ses dépenses de défense en réponse aux exigences de Trump. Elle a fourni un accès base et survol sans conditions pour l'opération Epic Fury en Iran. Elle se dirige vers 5% du PIB en dépenses militaires, le seuil le plus élevé jamais exigé par Washington. Et elle est punie pour avoir dit publiquement ce que ses diplomates disaient en privé depuis des semaines : que la stratégie américaine en Iran est un désastre. 💬 "Réduire prématurément la présence avancée de l'Amérique en Europe avant que ces capacités soient pleinement réalisées risque d'affaiblir la dissuasion et d'envoyer le mauvais signal à Vladimir Poutine." 💬 Et de poursuivre : "Tout changement significatif à la posture de force américaine en Europe justifie un processus de revue délibéré et une coordination étroite avec le Congrès et nos alliés." Comme beaucoup d'autres, cette décision a été prise de manière impulsive, sans consultation, sans processus institutionnel par un Président qui gouverne au gré de ses émotions, en réaction à une critique et sans stratégie. 🗃️ Les soldats américains en Allemagne ne sont pas là depuis 1945 par nostalgie. Ils constituent le pilier central de la dissuasion conventionnelle de l'OTAN face à la Russie. Depuis l'invasion de l'Ukraine en 2022, leur présence a été renforcée précisément pour signaler à Moscou que l'Article 5, la clause de défense collective, est une réalité militaire, pas une promesse rhétorique. Les retirer maintenant, alors que la guerre en Ukraine continue, que les pays baltes et la Pologne sont en état d'alerte permanent, et que Poutine observe chaque mouvement américain, envoie exactement le signal que Wicker et Rogers déplorent. ▶️ Si Trump retire des soldats d'Allemagne parce que Merz l'a critiqué, qu'est-ce qui empêche le même reflexe avec la Pologne, les pays baltes, la Roumanie ? Quel dirigeant allié peut désormais dire publiquement ce qu'il pense de la politique américaine sans calculer le risque d'un retrait de troupes en représailles ? Quand les engagements de sécurité collective deviennent des instruments de politique personnelle, ils cessent d'être des engagements. L'Allemagne paie pour la lucidité de Merz. Et Poutine prend note. La puissance américaine repose sur la confiance que ses alliés lui accordent et la certitude qu'un engagement américain est un engagement, pas une variable dépendante de l'humeur nocturne du président. La vraie question est donc : Peut-on encore avoir confiance dans les Américains ? Et la réponse est de moins en moins affirmative.

"Comme des pirates": lors de son allocution ce vendredi, Donald Trump s'est félicité de la capture d'un navire iranien et de sa cargaison pétrolière

"Contourner le congrès est une habitude chez Trump. Mais les Républicains ne sont pas mécontents de cela car ils seraient sinon obligés de soutenir leur président et ce serait mauvais pour leur image. Tout ça est très dommageable pour la démocratie." Romuald Sciora #cdanslair

Les accords de Turnberry 🇺🇸🇪🇺 étaient censés apporter stabilité à l’Europe — en échange d’une soumission commerciale et énergétique. En relevant unilatéralement les droits de douane de 25% sur l’automobile, Donald Trump démontre que l’UE a signé pour la soumission ET l’humiliation. Saluons le courage de Sabine Weyand, Directrice Génerale au Commerce, qui avait refusé de lever le pouce sur cet accord du déshonneur. La fin de son mandat a été annoncée cette semaine.