Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs
Ok, high-conviction bull thesis for $QCOM:
Added significantly to my position after successfully front-running their Earnings.
TLDR:
- weak smartphone biz = weak $QCOM earnings recently
- but are pivoting to data center chips by partnering w/ hyperscaler for CPUs, ASICs + custom accelerators.
- which opens up a huge TAM opportunity.
Crap smartphone market recently is reflected in their share price lagging $NVDA, $INTC, $AMD, $AVGO:
HBM prices going up = less Android phones built = less Snapdragon chips needed = less revenue for $QCOM
As reflected in their Earnings:
QCT chips revenue = $9.08B (-4% YoY)
Handsets revenue = $6.02B (-13% YoY)
But CEO said “we can now call the bottom” on the smartphone cycle w/ Android handset revenues bottoming in Q3.
But.... ignore smartphones for now
Cos data centers are what will drive $QCOM forwards:
$QCOM bought AlphaWave last yr, who designs semis tech parts. They therefore have huge IP now, enabling them to make all three kinds of chips:
1. CPUs
2. ASICs
3. inference accelerators
Leading to $QCOM now partnering w/ a hyperscaler to develop those three kinds of data center chips.
W/ initial shipments expected to begin in Dec. So, still well before any supply ramp-ups take place.
Basically, through the Alphawave IP, $QCOM can now make custom ASICs that integrate seamlessly into data center racks - exactly what hyperscalers want for inference at scale without full Nvidia lock-in.
Qualcomm’s edge-AI DNA (proven in billions of phones) gives them an efficiency advantage for always-on, low-power inference that hyperscalers need as they shift from training to deployment:
- Nvidia dominates training
- AMD/Intel/Broadcom fight for inference and custom.
- Qualcomm are targeting complementary inference accelerators, Arm CPUs, and custom ASICs that leverage its AlphaWave IP.
In terms of upcoming catalysts:
- Investor Day June 2026: data center + physical AI roadmap - probs the biggest catalyst this yr.
- Smartphone rebound: sequential handset growth from Q4 FY26 onward.
- Data center shipments: Dec proof point, followed by ramp ups via LTAs w/ hyperscaler customer.
For me, I plan to DCA on any dips through to when their chips start being shipped to the hyperscaler at least.
