Black Raven

🚨 Last time this happened, the Nikkei fell 12% in a day and Bitcoin lost 20%. Japan is stuck in a loop with no way out. To defend the yen, the BOJ sells dollars. Selling dollars drains liquidity. Draining liquidity crushes bonds. Bond yields just hit the highest level since 1999. Higher yields make the yen problem worse. Repeat. In 2024 they had one problem and spent $62 billion fixing it temporarily. Today they have FOUR at once: – Yen shorts at the largest position since July 2024 – Bond yields at 27-year highs – Oil at $120 making every import more expensive – A new Fed Chair in 2 weeks who could unwind the carry trade without the BOJ doing anything The BOJ just raised its inflation forecast to 2.8% and cut GDP growth to 0.5%, that’s stagflation. Hike rates and you wreck the economy. Do nothing and the yen keeps falling. Japan’s Finance Minister just told G7 members they’re watching FX with a “high sense of urgency” and called Scott Bessent directly. This time every trader is watching the same trigger. That makes it worse. If you want to know where WE are deploying capital next, turn on post notifications this is very important. Many people will wish they followed us sooner.

Time to resign/retire/primary - John Fetterman - Chuck Schumer - Chuck Grassley

BILL MAHER: “Israel has 7 Democratic allies left in the Senate.” “This is the Democrats saying, we’re not going to sell Israel any more military equipment.” JAKE SULLIVAN: “40 Democrats who voted for this.” MAHER: “That’s right. Only 7 allies.” SULLIVAN: “I talked to a number of them before the vote. I think they did the right thing.” MAHER: “Who did the right thing?” SULLIVAN: “Those 40 Democrats.” MAHER: “The 40?” SULLIVAN: “Yeah. Because the President of the United States and the Prime Minister of Israel brought the United States into a war that… cost American lives and cost American families at the gas pump… If you are not wanting to support the US and Israel continuing the war in Iran, you shouldn’t be voting to send more weapons to Israel.” MAHER: “Well, I see why Biden lost…”