EVisking

1) A thread on why CLV does not equal EV. Yes, sure, it is a little inspired by Carabelli going off 4.86 for a -17% CLV on my bet at 4.44. But, the people backing Michelsen in the 1.25 to 1.30 range cannot possibly have known he had lost 15 pounds from food poisoning.

@Tennis_Metrics I’m going to respectfully disagree actually. I think there is some outcome/hindsight bias that works with these. When the injured player loses your brain just moves on as that was the expected outcome but when something crazy happens like yesterday it’s very memorable!

. Wow guys, what have we just witnessed...... This is something when a player is cramping, but when he is screaming like hell, you automatically tell yourself "he can't play anymore, he's gonna lose each of the following point, lose the set, and retire". But no... First, we can't really assess how much it really affect the injured player. Second, the opponent is completely lost (Ugo made zero dropshot afterwards...) So please... I beg you... If you are a bettor, you can back the opponent if only : 1. you saw it before the market and can have a good price (forget about the 1.15 you would see 20 seconds later). 2. when you can bet again, always back the injured player with a small stake so you don't lose anything in any scenario. Cause guess what : the injured player is gonna win a lot more often than you think ! Every pro bettor will tell you the same thing. You agree @nishikoripicks @tennismasterr @EVisking_ @Marcos_Betting @WTA_RemindMe ? Hope you got the most of it in the end ;). Tried to warn you with a post, but I think it'll be better with a Telegram channel... Hasta pronto ! #Tennis #Tennispicks #Tennisbetting #Tennisbets #BettingTennis #BettingX #BettingCommunity #TeamParieur

Hit a Reverse Sweep yesterday, can ADM give us the clean sweep today to make up for it?!

Nava quickly becoming one of my favorite players, it looks like he really loves his job and is so happy to be at the ATP level. I chatted to him briefly at Surbiton Challenger a few years ago and he seemed like a super nice guy. Fun game to watch also!

@Chartist45 My ROI at Pinnacle is 9% over 1665 bets, all tracked by either Pyckio, and (since Tipstrr bought Pyckio) Tipstrr. I only tip at Stake when there is an issue with the Tipstrr website such that it is not giving me the option to tip Pinnacle odds.

@EVisking_ why your roi is -ve in pinny @EVisking_ ?? If you roi in long run is -ve then there is no point or any other metric than clv to consider better.

I couldn't have put it any better than this.

@Tennis_Metrics Sorry to miss you on Monday - next year I will try to go for longer!

@EVisking_ that's my maaaaaaaan ! Well done bro ! I got a smaller odd but still a shot that was full of value, and there worth to try.

. Garin leading 3/0 in the third against Zverev. Knowing how much Garin can be tense when having to finish a match, is Zverev's ML at 2.74 value ? You have 2 minutes ;) #TennisBetting #BettingX #BettingTennis #MonteCarloRolexMasters

@Tennis_Metrics Guilty! 🤑

Be ready to read that Garin's choke was so obvious and that is so common with him. But how many bettors have actually put some money ?

@aluckyaday @BettingIsCool @WadsterTips @EvisKing I think it's quite clear that having +ve CLV is a good thing for your Expected Value, that is to say that the market gets more efficient as time goes on, ON AVERAGE. But it is still definitely possible to have (lots of) bets with +ve EV which have -ve CLV.

@EVisking_ @BettingIsCool @WadsterTips @EvisKing What is your take on what he says though? That you don't need CLV to be profitable? There are edges out there that markets don't know about? That individual closing prices are not effcicient.

🧵 A few respectful but pointed questions about this record, @WadsterTips. Not questioning your integrity — I'm questioning what this data actually proves. And a generous offer for you at the bottom, if you're really that good 😉 1 The table shows £2,541 cumulative profit since Oct 2017. Impressive consistency? Or survivorship bias? If I flip 10,000 coins and show you the one sequence that looks like a winning streak, you'd be impressed too. This is @12Xpert 's classic piece football-data.co.uk/blog/survivors… The key finding from his Monte Carlo simulation: If you start with zero-skill tipsters (coin flippers at odds 2.00), remove anyone whose yield drops below -5% after 100 bets, then after 200 days the surviving tipsters show an average aggregate yield of +5.4% — purely from survivorship bias, with zero edge whatsoever. 2 The obvious question: What is your overall CLV? From what I understand @tipstrr only started tracking CLV in Jan 2025. What is yours? 3 Let's look at the table more carefully. Huge gaps: 2022 entirely missing. 2024 entirely missing. 2019 only January. 2020 only Sep-Nov. 2023 only Aug-Sep. Your site says "since 2017." Has EVERY SINGLE TIP been recorded on @tipstrr since 2017? If not, where are the rest? Were any bets "accidentally" stripped from the record? 4 Were all advised odds actually available? Your profile says Pinnacle is your book of choice and median odds ~2.50. But were those prices obtainable at the time of the tip? 5 To put a 15-24% ROI in perspective: you're claiming to systematically exploit inefficiencies in an overall brutally efficient market. @Pinnacle tennis markets are some of the sharpest in the world. The best quant funds in finance struggle to sustain double-digit alpha. But you can do 15%+ ROI over 7 years on the ATP tour? That's an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence. CLV IS that evidence. Profits alone are not. 6 I've been through this before with @evisking on @pyckio. Same sport. CLV is the lie detector test of sports betting. It separates signal from noise, skill from variance. 7 So here's my challenge, @WadsterTips: €1,000 bet. Straight up. If you can outperform your own CLV by more than 5% over the next 1,000 bets (i.e. your ROI exceeds your no-vig CLV by >5 percentage points), I'll pay you €1,000. If you can't, you pay me €1,000. Why this bet? Because if your edge is real, your profits should CONVERGE to your CLV over 1,000 bets. They shouldn't dramatically exceed it. A sustained gap between actual ROI and CLV = luck, not skill. And if you don't even have positive CLV... well, that answers everything. 8 The ball is in your court. Show me CLV or it's just a nice chart. 📊

@BettingIsCool @WadsterTips @EvisKing Ps congrats on the very impressive start to the year!

@BettingIsCool @WadsterTips @EvisKing Be careful wasting your time and energy with this guy @WadsterTips, he has never been into the weeds in betting and developed his own edge and is clearly just jealous of people who have.

Does anyone know if the website dartsrankings.com/tennis/schedul… will be coming back? It was so good for checking entry lists of future tournaments but hasn't been updated since the end of last year...

Decent start to 2026: Bets: 87 Profit: 77 units ROI: 18.7% But variance can play a large role in small sample sizes like this. There is, in fact, a 5% chance that these 87 bets actually had EV of zero...

Not a bad nights work 😊

@tennismasterr He is signed into Bejing Q's next week...

Is Pedro Martinez unfit or something? 🤔 Even with potential fatigue/travel spot (played in Marbella on sunday) these odds dont make sense...

This is some proper defense!!

@tennismasterr Do they have a roof there do you know?

Hamburg 🇩🇪 🇪🇸 Bautista Agut @ 2.69 / +169 (bet105) - 0.75u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ The clay-like conditions in Hamburg are gone, and now we’re getting Nordic weather — high winds and low temperatures — which will really test players’ motivation and effort levels with Roland Garros just 2–3 days away. In this particular matchup, given the tricky conditions, I’ll side with the experienced player with a steady mindset over the flashy but volatile youngster in Cobolli.

@tennismasterr @budybet definitely different to not playing for 6 weeks, yes

@EVisking_ @budybet is college tennis relevant to european clay court tennis? 😁

French Open Qualies Guide 🇫🇷 Here’s your ultimate fade list ahead of Roland Garros! With prize money for a Q1 loss now at €21,000, some players are clearly heading to Paris just to cash a check. Let’s break it down… 🛑DIDN'T PLAY FOR MORE THAN 3 WEEKS: • Michael Mmoh – 21/04 (CH Savannah) • Gijs Brouwer – 02/02 (ATP 500 Rotterdam) • Max Marterer – 31/01 (Davis Cup) • Murphy Cassone – 29/04 (CH Ostrava) • Pol Martín Tiffon – 06/04 (CH Menorca) • Alexis Galarneau – 17/04 (CH Tallahassee) • Arthur Bouquier – 29/04 (CH Aix) • Jozef Kovalik – 12/04 (ATP 500 Barcelona) • Marin Čilić – 29/04 (CH Mauthausen) • Elmer Møller – 29/04 (CH Ostrava) • Facundo Bagnis – 25/04 (CH San Miguel) • Colton Smith – 04/04 (ATP 250 Houston) • Tim van Rijthoven – 07/01 (AO Qualies) ⛔️ NO CLAY MATCHES THIS YEAR: • Brandon Holt • Gijs Brouwer • Max Marterer • Omar Jasika • Yasutaka Uchiyama • Antoine Escoffier • Constant Lestienne • Li Tu • Alibek Kachmazov ❌RETIRED IN THEIR LAST MATCH: • Pablo Llamas Ruiz – 01/05 (M25 Sabadell) • Facundo Bagnis – 25/04 (CH San Miguel) • Shintaro Mochizuki – 12/05 (CH Oeiras) • Felipe Meligeni Alves – 13/05 (CH Oeiras) Everything depends on odds, of course. But these players? Probably the best value fades of RG qualies. USEFUL? Leave a ❤️ please

When you are on a bad run, sh!t like this happens!

@Tennis_Metrics @moutet99 We were all waiting for the handshake weren't we...?!

. Never a good idea to tease @moutet99 during a French tournament... 🤣 Match started again today, 5-5 in the third. Result : break, game, set & match, with only 2 points for Kotov 🐓 Cocorico ! 🇫🇷 #TennisPicks #TennisBetting #TennisTips #TennisOdds #Tennis #TeamParieurs #teamParieur #MutuaMadrid #mutuamadridopen2025