A Lucky A Day

@prometheus8080 @DustinGouker ...If so they have managed to convince the regulator to let them have iGaming type product using a sports betting licence 🤔Clever if that is what they have done and they can get away with it 😲

@prometheus8080 @DustinGouker Interesting. Do they give any details of how they choose the pool of at bats they are selecting from? I'm guessing if you look at all at bats the odds will appear efficient on average, so if they are choosing randomly from that pool, its basically a true odds + margin bet....

In case you are wondering how this works

@12Xpert I've wondered if real world scenarios could be incorporated in to the math. If you make assumptions like edges deteriorate over time or there are maximum stakes, would it change what the math says you should be staking 🤔

@aluckyaday Median expected bankroll is a theoretical optimisation, and given the OP was a theoretical thought experiment, I feel perfectly entitled to disregard the real world. Perhaps we can call such abject disregard for real world a 'Trump'. 🤣

As I discussed yesterday, pros seek to optimise the trade off between variance and expected bank growth. This happens when you maximise median bankroll growth. In this scenario, it’s option A all the way. Focusing only on expected value is NOT what pros should be doing.

@12Xpert 🤣

@12Xpert The math assumes you know what your edge is, you don't. It assumes you will have that edge forever, you won't. It also assumes stakes are unlimited, they aren't. Actually I quite like that. Next time someone says Kelly is the be all and end all..You don't, you won't, they arn't🤣

@12Xpert Yes. Once you have an edge, ROI can always be traded for variance and vice versa. Easy way to show it, double 2 +EV bets and you will increase your ROI, but win less often. Their is a problem with the maximising median bankroll philosophy though....

@DustinGouker Pretty much all our books in the UK offer virtual sports. Similar to iGaming but you do need a separate licence to operate it. I'm assuming it would be classed as that here, but I guess that would depend on how the odds are generated. We have very specific legislation for it.

Is this sports betting? Clearly not. Did a regulator say it’s sports betting so someone could offer it? Yes. Sounds familiar!

DraftKings doesn’t try to gaslight into thinking it’s not gambling every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Also who is saying I was upset? You seem upset though.

@Josh_DTM Sky obviously did not get the message as they were doing 2+ as their boost 🤣

Keir Starmer needs to look into this IMMEDIATELY.

@PlusEVAnalytics @DoctorRazzWSOP @EventWavesIO @robpizzola But if it is done like that, real story here is it is iGaming disguised as sports betting 🤔

@PlusEVAnalytics @DoctorRazzWSOP @EventWavesIO @robpizzola It is an interesting one. We have virtual sports in the UK where the odds on offer have to reflect the actually probability of the event occuring less a margin. If pitch to be shown is picked randomly from a pool of known outcomes, then odds could be set like that 🤔

Who does this appeal to?

@inga1937 @Rishibets @checkmatexxxxxx @KyleSamani @GamRegGB Does invitation to treat not exist in Spain. If I go in to a shop, do they have to serve me if I try to buy a product that is incorrectly priced?

@inga1937 @Rishibets @checkmatexxxxxx @KyleSamani @GamRegGB ...But for the refusal of individual bets, that is not even the issue here. It is the consumer who is making the offer, not the book, so the book have the right to refuse it. I know you know that already though 🤣

It is important to delineate between games of skill and games of chance It is universally agreed that trading in public markets - commodities, equities, fx, etc - is a game of skill. Many firms have structural alpha. You can play the game in an EV positive way It is also universally recognized that pulling the lever on a slot machine, craps, blackjack, etc is not a game of skill. It is strictly a game of chance, and it is known to be EV negative Wagering on sports is far more like trading public markets than gambling at the casino. There is immense and heterogenous publicly available data that can be analyzed and used to develop systematic trading strategies Wagering on sports is a game of skill, not a game of chance

@inga1937 @Rishibets @checkmatexxxxxx @KyleSamani @GamRegGB The advertising industry😉 I don't think it does condemn learning. In fact I think it enhances it as it increases the size of the pie. I also think it is fair to be paid what your skills are worth and that worth should be determined by those you provide benefit too.

@aluckyaday @Rishibets @checkmatexxxxxx @KyleSamani @GamRegGB As I said, I don't care about savvy bettors, sharp bettors, or skilful bettors; I care about a fair and transparent system that doesn't condemn natural learning and isn't sustained by manipulating consumer expectations.

@inga1937 @Rishibets @checkmatexxxxxx @KyleSamani That is easy. Because it allows gambling to be made more attractive to those that are willing to lose money. Which ultimately creates a bigger pie for everybody to eat from. But in the gambling is bad, prohibitive world we live in, that would probably not go down too well 🤣

That's obviously a corporate-centric interpretation, of course. But if you translate it into real numbers and present it to legislators... that would be better...😉 Especially since they would have to explain why consumers who don't cheat or commit fraud are discriminated against, beyond the fact that this is simply the commercial decision.🙄

@inga1937 @Rishibets @checkmatexxxxxx @KyleSamani @GamRegGB If they get what they are asking for, they may find out that what they had before was actually brilliant for them and in a system without soft books, there will be a lot less easy money to go round, the competition for it will be harder and their skills worth less 😉

@inga1937 @Rishibets @checkmatexxxxxx @KyleSamani @GamRegGB I would say the skillful bettors at SBs are trying to get paid more than they are worth. Good luck to them if they can do it, but ultimately they need to know their place in the industry, what they are worth and then concentrate on maximizing that rather than complaining. 😉

@inga1937 @Rishibets @checkmatexxxxxx @KyleSamani @GamRegGB Not sure that is the case at the moment. The current US PM system seems like a house of cards to me. Good luck to those currently taking profits out. But IMHO a lot will get burnt if/when it all comes tumbling down. A lot of faith being put in the regulatory advantage.

Everything has its advantages and disadvantages. Perhaps the worst aspect of the PMs model is that it romanticizes professional conduct in clearly speculative markets. But as a transparent and equitable risk taking, it is unparalleled in fostering informed behavior and ensuring that risk perception adapts to that reality. Imho.

@inga1937 @Rishibets @checkmatexxxxxx @KyleSamani So around 6.5% were expecting to get paid more than the books considered there business is worth. Seems reasonable to me. 4.31% overvalued their worth and are now getting paid what the book thinks they are worth and 2.23% the book saw no value in their business whatsoever.

@aluckyaday @Rishibets @checkmatexxxxxx @KyleSamani 4.31 % + 2.23 % sports betting restrictions🙄