E_DataGuy

Here we go - Election night 2025! Thanks to everyone for following along; I’ll be here until the races are called! And then full analysis of the models as full results are released! I’ll start two threads, so be sure to follow them along as I compare the models to the live results we’re seeing! It’s been great fun, and I’m looking forward to doing it all again in 2026 no matter how this goes! I’ve got a small donations link here: buymeacoffee.com/e_dataguy If anyone wants to sponsor a coffee to keep me going this evening! Thanks again - let’s see how this goes!

Keep following me, you’ll only have to re-follow next year anyway!

EDG will be entering into its third election cycle next year, and its second major set of results. So far, we’ve had successes in race calls but not so much for the actual % votes. Rolling into 2026 I’ll be redesigning once more, streamlining the models and aiming to push better results for you all!

VIRGINIA - >95% REPORTING ✅ - Correct Candidate Selected ❌ - Within 5% of the result 🔵 - Over Performing by 4.82% 🔴 - Under Performing by 4.64% My net error was 9.46% A result in the correct candidate called; however, a major error in the margin.

@WinWithJMC Thanks John! I’ll be back with a vengeance next year; these numbers will not beat me!

@E_DataGuy Sometimes you just have to take the plunge and be willing to take a few hits, but that's the best impetus for improving the model 👍

Well there we go! Safe to say the model wasn’t correct last night. But that’s okay! I’ll push harder for 2026, refine and replace aspects that didn’t quite work! I’ll be going county by county in the next few days analysing the difference between the model and the actual result. Seeing where we did good, bad and awfully! Keep following, because 2026 will be a wild year for elections if this is anything to go off of. Thanks to everyone who has followed along this year, it’s been great! Keep your eyes peeled for the analysis, I won’t hold back on myself!

Thanks for the follows, let’s do it all again next year!

The proof will be in 2026, the third test for EDG. I will analyse both of these models for you publicly when we have 100% of the vote declared. And I hope you’ll stick around for that! Then it’s onto a more open build of the 2026 models!

NEW JERSEY - 93% REPORTING ✅ - Correct Candidate Selected ❌ - Within 5% of the result 🔵 - Over Performing by 5.86% 🔴 - Under Performing by 6.17% My net error was 12.03% Not the best result from the main model this time around!

@MikieSherrill @Jack4NJ 40% statewide 🔵-56.7% 🔴-42.8% 🔵+ 13.9%

@MikieSherrill @Jack4NJ Morris - 21% R’s lead 51.3% to 48.4% Model missing by 0.16%

New Jersey: 2025 LIVE results thread: This is the NJ thread, I’ll try to keep it as up to date as I can throughout the evening! I’ll be focusing on the main counties, but will try to give fair coverage to the smaller ones!