John Couvillon

@dg_sailingfan 4. The US Senate primaries (since you can't gerrymander a Senator :)) havent been affected, BUT..... Registered Reps can only pick a Rep Senate candidate. Same with registered Dems/Dem candidate. For "no party" voters, you can choose a Dem/Rep/No Party ballot.

@dg_sailingfan 2. Ongoing redistricting litigation was "resolved" (that is, the Supreme Court rendered its decision) several days before in person early voting commenced 3. Semi closed primaries for US House races ONLY were stopped - then moved to November. And became open primary races

JMC'S ELECTION NIGHT THREAD

@ChandlerHegwood @Patrick98234647 Yours truly is watching 8 more :)

@Patrick98234647 @WinWithJMC Watching St. Tammany, EBR and Jefferson

JMC ELECTION NIGHT (T-1 hours) (Yes, I've sent this several times today, but repetition is gold) Live tweeing the US Senate GOP contest, with the tweets flying in about an hour.

@Aintropy We believe in voting? :)

@WinWithJMC Why is Louisiana woke and open until 8pm?

@ChandlerHegwood I never "play the prediction market", although rest assured I have my benchmarks ready :)

@WinWithJMC Predictions?

@chriswithans They are :)

@WinWithJMC Aren’t polls open until 8 Louisiana time?

@dg_sailingfan @earlyvotedata 8PM. The "9PM" is from the perspective of those on the Eastern Time Zone. Rest assured, I KNOW when the Gret Stet polls close :)

@earlyvotedata @WinWithJMC Doesn't LA close at 9pm John? That's 2 Hours not 1 in my book.

@luigi8604 (Note to the outside world: Jamie Davis is running for the Democratic nomination for the US Senate)

@WinWithJMC I voted for Jamie Davis for US Senate. Love his story of being a farmer in North Louisiana. So sick and tired of the same old politicians. Jamie is a breath of fresh air.

JMC ELECTION NIGHT (T-3 hours) Live tweeing the US Senate GOP contest (yours truly will start before polls close at 8 CT). Models are built and ready to be used, with race calls to be made on the Senate race, the amendments, and maybe a race or two more.

@RyanGirdusky (Ill just say that noting the volume (or lack thereof) of early voting/the "Voldemort topic of Political Discussion" has provided some pretty broad hints about that very topic :)

From everything I'm hearing, turnout in Louisiana is looking low

@cemjcemj Its a labor of love. I figure the ET community could use some information that isn't muddied up by spin and BS :)

@WinWithJMC Thanks for doing this!

@jacksonvoss Its an imperfect analysis, but data is inherently imperfect. (Now if i was comparing against 2024, you'd be justified in engaging in blowback against my choice :))

@WinWithJMC I did, and agreed with your assessment - feels like not much this year will be easily comparable (for any number of reasons) to past years. But suppose the same can be said for nearly every election we’ve had so far this decade, for one reason or another

What’s the point of comparison here? As far as I can tell, there was no statewide election in 2022 for people to early vote in before November of that year

@jacksonvoss You may have seen this already, but I posted this earlier this morning. 2022, with all due respect to Dr Ed, is not an analagous election comparison:

@WinWithJMC That seems like a better comparison to me as well!

CALIFORNIA EARLY VOTING TURNOUT (Data from @Political_Data) As of Friday night: 906K (41-37-22% D/R/I) As this point in 2022, 719K voted (54-26-20% D/R/I)