@chriswithans As mentioned before, there is more to the Illinois primary ballot than JUST a state senate race ;)
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John Couvillon
55.6K posts
John Couvillon
@WinWithJMC
JMC Analytics & Polling Founder/Owner Award winning pollster/4x finalist (C&Es Reed Awards) Political strategist/Numbers guy
Louisiana Katılım Ekim 2012
1.3K Takip Edilen28.7K Takipçiler
@WinWithJMC Democrats had a competitive Senate primary as well as a scandal-ridden House election amongst the Hyper-Engaged Set
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ILLINOIS TURNOUT RECAP, DAY AFTER AM
(86% of estd vote in) 1.181M Dem
(95+% of estd vote in) 529K Rep
That equates to a 69-31% Dem/Rep electorate (was 53% Dem in 2022 and 65% in 2018)
Estd final turnout: 1.375M Dem, 545K Rep, or 72-28% Dem/Rep
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@MattBoxer94 Definitely. And that happened despite all the $$ Raja had.
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Stratton ate into Raja’s base in suburbia. JB being her chief surrogate helped
John Couvillon@WinWithJMC
ILLINOIS SENATE DEM PRIMARY BY REGION (With 86% estimated to be in) Cook (Chicago): Stratton 44-23% over Krishnamoorthi Cook (non Chicago): S 35.9-35.4% over K Lake/Will/DuPage/McHenry, K 40-39% over S Downstate: S 41-39% over K In other words, Krishnamoorthi had no base.
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@roon0292 Yes, but 70+? You DO have other things on the ballot in IL besides just US House/Senate :)
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ILLINOIS SENATE DEM PRIMARY BY REGION
(With 86% estimated to be in)
Cook (Chicago): Stratton 44-23% over Krishnamoorthi Cook (non Chicago): S 35.9-35.4% over K Lake/Will/DuPage/McHenry, K 40-39% over S Downstate: S 41-39% over K
In other words, Krishnamoorthi had no base.
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DDHQ JUST called the race for Stratton, 11 minutes later :)
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WHY JMC THINK STRATTON WINS IN ILLINOIS
Here's the data
Cook (Chicago): Stratton 44-23% over Krishnamoorthi
Cook (non Chicago): S 35.9-35.6% over K
Lake/Will/DuPage/McHenry, K 45-35% over S
Downstate: K 40-39% over S
The JB endorsement certainly helped Stratton.
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@WinWithJMC And she really should be happy with herself with downstate
Doing way better than I expected her too even in rural areas
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@roon0292 The overall number (+5-6 Stratton) has been eerily static all evening. It's not like there's this hidden stash of votes for Krishnamoorthi south of I-80.
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@WinWithJMC What was the ultimate dagger was DuPage
Once I saw only Raja +10 with the earlies I knew it would be an early night
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JMC has also noted the MASSIVE Democratic turnout as a % of the electorate in the Land of Lincoln:
2014: 63% Rep, 1.34M
2018: 65% Dem, 2.09M
2022: 53% Dem, 1.72M
(PROJECTED) 2026: 75% Dem, 1.84M
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JMC noted that (1) the overall numbers have NOT changed throughout the evening, (2) Stratton has a 10 point lead in Cook, BUT (3) Stratton is only running 6 points behind outside of Cook County.
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JMC ON CHUCK TODDCAST
In 21 minutes. Am watching the level of partisan primary enthusiasm, as well as the Senate race on the Democratic side.
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@omvyas833 Paid work took priority :)
Seriously, though, if it (and NC) interest you, I DO try to please my followers 😎
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@WinWithJMC what happened to Pennsylvania interm updates
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@RayWithTweets As much as some on ET make fun of early voting/want to pretend it doesn't exist, it's a useful tool in terms of determining a "best guess" of voter turnout.
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PRE GAME
Today is election day in the Gret Stet with special election runoffs in SD 3 (Orleans/St Bernard) and HD 100 (Orleans)
There is also a special election primary in HD 69 (East Baton Rouge). This is a partisan race in a Rep district. JMC will be making race calls.
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@earlyvotedata He was VERY well financed (for a state rep race), had worked for two former GOP Congressmen, had the endorsement of Senator Kennedy, etc, etc.
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@WinWithJMC I’m impressed sawyer won outright without a runoff.
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SPECIAL ELECTION STATUS
JMC CALLS
HD 69: Sawyer 53-40% over a Democrat with 90% of EDay vote in
SD 3: Sidney Barthelemy II up 68-32% with 40% of EDay vote in.
NON CALLED
HD 100: Dana Henry up 19 votes with 1/3 of the vote in.
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@earlyvotedata 100% of the vote in now.
SD 3: Sidney Barthelemy, II (Dem) 64% runoff win
HD 69: Paul Sawyer (Rep) 53% first primary win
HD 100: Dana Henry (Dem) 53% runoff win
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@RayWithTweets PROJECTED V ACTUAL TURNOUT
(projections were made 13 hours ago in the previous posting)
HD 69: 19% proj, 16% actual
HD 100: 14% proj, 14% actual
SD 3: 11% proj, 11% actual
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@RayWithTweets JMC's projected turnouts based on early voting
SD 3: 11%
HD 100: 14%
HD 69: 19%
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John Couvillon retweetledi
DANA HENRY WINS IN HD 100
This was a runoff race in NO East that JMC declined to call. But....all precincts came in :)
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HD 69 RACE IN 2000 WORDS
Paul got the votes he needed to get to win, and is now in the (state) House.
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