Lou & Pat

@CNN The Liberty Ball looking more like a rerun of America's Got Talent #AGT #InauguralBall #Inauguration

@StockSavvyShay He’s prob out already. These backward looking disclosures rarely are buy signals because of the lag. They only work if The buys are down by the time the 45 day lag is disclosed. Plenty of examples

David Tepper initiated a $179M position in $SNDK last quarter. He’s one of the most successful macro-driven hedge fund managers alive and made billions buying distressed credit during the financial crisis.

@FortuneMagazine I thought GDP growth will be over 3%. Not Ho Hum

@SaraEisen Keep up the good work Sara. Love the Fire

Congratulations on kicking the can down the road. The Mayor’s deficit closing relies primarily on a huge bailout from Albany ($8b over 2 years) and delayed payments like pension costs which just get stretched farther into the future

@TrendSpider AMZN. Easy choice

You can only own one Mag 7 name for the next 5 years. Which is it and why?

@RyanDetrick Bill Miller

Pyramid of the best investors ever. Who is missing?

@stoolpresidente Taking the time to respond to a click bait tweet leads me to believe it probably struck a nerve

I’ve seen lots of people saying I would be loving this Vrabel story if it happened to a rival team. Those accusations are disgusting and despicable. Look at my 24 year history of running Barstool. I always keep it in between the white lines. I guess you can’t teach class.

@BeckyQuick I hope you put Paul’s entire discussion online later today. Terrific insights. Always interesting

@MilkRoadAI @MilkRoad Would love to be an early investor…if it really works long term.

The AI infrastructure race just went underwater. A Portland, Oregon startup called Panthalassa just raised $140 million in a Series B round led by Peter Thiel, the idea sounds wild until you understand the physics. Every AI data center on Earth has the same three problems, it needs massive amounts of electricity, it generates enormous heat that has to be cooled, and it requires land in places that are already running out of grid capacity. Panthalassa's answer is to eliminate all three constraints at once by taking the data center off the grid, off the land, and into the open ocean. And here's how it works, the company builds autonomous, self-propelled floating nodes made from plate steel, no anchor, no fuel, no cable to shore. As waves lift the platform, water is forced through an internal turbine, generating electricity continuously. That electricity runs AI inference chips onboard and the results go back to shore via low-Earth-orbit satellite. The surrounding ocean provides free supercooling, which one investor estimates could generate power at roughly two cents per kilowatt-hour. For context on why this matters, land based data centers spend up to 40% of their total energy budget just on cooling. Microsoft's Project Natick found that submerged servers had a failure rate of just 0.7% compared to 5.9% on land. The ocean doesn't just solve the cost problem but it solves the reliability problem too. Panthalassa's Ocean 3 pilot nodes are already under construction, with deployment in the northern Pacific targeted for August 2026 and commercial operations in 2027. The company has been building toward this for a decade with Ocean-1, Ocean-2, and Wavehopper prototypes already validated at sea, including a test in Puget Sound in 2024. The global underwater data center market was $3.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $14.8 billion by 2034. China has already launched commercial-scale undersea data centers. The race to compute off the grid whether in space, underwater, or on the open ocean is no longer theoretical, it's being funded, permitted, and in Panthalassa's case, it's being built right now. The future is bright!

@stoolpresidente @sixers Now the team that was ‘supposed’ to come out of the East are BAD? Another bad take

I am so sick of all these delusional @sixers fans acting like they aren’t a bum franchise. It’s round 1 of the playoffs guys. You beat a bad Celtics team. Relax. If the Sixers win the title I’ll get a Sixers neck tattoo.

@jmwass @thesincerevp I thought the same thing when she posted last round $8b. Click bait tweet

@thesincerevp Last private valuation was 23b a couple of months ago. Easily google-able. What else is wrong here?

@SenWarren What a ridiculous take. You championed the blocked merger and now u blame others. Pathetic.

Spiking fuel prices from Trump’s war was the nail in the coffin for twice-bankrupted Spirit airline. FWIW, JetBlue merger failed because a judge, appointed by Ronald Reagan, said the deal was illegal. Republicans are desperate to shift blame from higher costs hitting families.

@MilkRoadAI @MilkRoad Also with cash flow no longer supporting massive buybacks by these corps and with all the new 2026 IPO‘s expanding share count - this would be the exact opposite of what we saw in the last decade-huge overall share count reduction. Not a good sign.

Chamath Palihapitiya just laid out the most important valuation question nobody on Wall Street wants to answer. For 20 years, the Mag 7 won because they had the greatest business model ever invented, asset- ight software. You write the code once, you sell it to a billion people, the marginal cost of the next customer is basically zero. There is essentially no factories, no raw materials, no union workers, no physical infrastructure, just pure leverage, scale the revenue, barely scale the costs. That's how you get 30x, 50x, 60x earnings multiples and the market was paying for compounding economics that had no natural ceiling. But AI just blew that model up. The hyperscalers, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta are now projected to spend between $600 and $725 billion on capex in 2026 alone, up from $250 billion just two years ago. That number is climbing, not plateauing and it's not just the chips and the data centers, it's the energy contracts underneath all of it. When Microsoft re signed Three Mile Island, they locked in a 20 year forward purchase agreement at more than $100 per megawatt hour nearly double the prevailing spot rate of $60 for wind and solar in the same region. That's a long term liability commitment baked into operating cash flows for two decades. Here's where Chamath's math gets uncomfortable. These five or six companies are now collectively spending so much that their capex has exceeded their free cash flow meaning they can no longer self fund growth from operations alone. In 2025 alone, hyperscalers raised $108 billion in new debt and projections put the total debt issuance over the next few years at $1.5 trillion. These are companies that, for two decades, were net cash accumulators and now they're going to the debt markets like everyone else with term loans, revolvers, and structured credit facilities. That's Chamath's core point and it's a devastating one for anyone still modeling these companies the old way. When a company is asset light, investors pay a premium for that lightness and the multiple reflects the belief that returns on capital will stay high indefinitely, because there's no heavy physical plant dragging them down. But when Google starts looking like a utility locked into 20-year energy contracts, carrying hundreds of billions in debt, spending half its revenue on physical infrastructure, the rational multiple compresses. You don't price a utility at 30x earnings, you price it at 12x. His conclusion is that stop trying to value the hyperscalers themselves and follow the money instead. A trillion dollars a year is flowing out of these companies into power companies, data center operators, chip manufacturers, cooling systems, fiber networks, rare earth metals. The companies on the receiving end of that spending are already underpriced because the market is still staring at the senders while ignoring who's cashing the checks. The asset-light era minted the most valuable companies in human history and the asset heavy era that's replacing it might be the best argument yet for owning everything around them instead.

@MilkRoadAI @MilkRoad This calculation while very relevant assumes zero revenues from this spend. I don’t know if it’s zero or $1 trillion but it’s not negative.

@MilkRoad @Securitize @RWA_xyz $CEPT Business combination taking Securitize public very soon.

Computershare (the transfer agent for 58% of the S&P 500) just partnered with @Securitize to put actual shares onchain. Not derivative tokens or synthetic claims, but direct equity ownership in a wallet. Computershare serves 25,000+ companies, handling dividends & stock splits - and now they'll do it across both traditional and tokenized formats simultaneously. The TAM here is the entire $70T U.S. equity market. Tokenized equities today are ~$1.1B - that's 63,000x from the full TAM.

@SthFLTrader @negligible_cap The Freedons afforded by the US allows one to live & work wherever they wish. Yes taxes are a part of the equation. If Ken feels better served elsewhere I have no issues with it.

Ken Griffin is “appalled” that Zohran used his $238m Manhattan penthouse in his tax the rich promotional video Citadel is now apparently considering bailing on their construction plans to build a new office in Midtown. The project would involve $6 billion in spending and would create 15k permanent jobs in NYC according to Citadel’s COO "It is shameful that he used Ken's name as the example of those who supposedly aren't carrying their fair share of the burdens associated with New York City's often costly and wasteful spending," the email said. "In doing so, the mayor has once again manifested the ignorance and disdain of the elite political class towards those who have been consistently committed to building one of the greatest cities in the world." Would be both incredibly petty but also hilarious if Citadel backed out of their plans over this

@felixprehn Buying VIX or VIXY OTM calls are another cheap hedge

Bill Ackman turned $27 million into $2.6 billion in 30 days. Here's the exact trade, and why the same setup exists right now. In February 2020, Ackman saw COVID spreading through Italy and realized the US market hadn't priced in what was about to happen. He spent $27 million buying credit default swaps on the investment-grade corporate bond index. Basically insurance policies that pay out when companies start defaulting on debt. 30 days later the market collapsed 30%. His $27 million position was worth $2.6 billion. A 9,500% return in one month. Then he did something even smarter. He sold the hedge at the bottom and used the $2.6 billion to buy stocks at March 2020 lows. Hilton, Lowe's, Agilent. Bought them at maximum fear. Those positions doubled and tripled over the next 18 months. $27 million into $2.6 billion into an equity portfolio worth over $10 billion. All from one trade that started as a hedge. This wasn't luck. The setup was visible weeks before the crash if you were watching the right signals. Corporate credit spreads were widening. Italy's healthcare system was collapsing in real time. The VIX was still low because nobody believed it would reach America. The same type of asymmetric setup exists right now. Not the same trade. But the same structure. The Buffett Indicator just hit 232%. Highest in history. Buffett himself is sitting on $334 billion cash. Private credit funds are gating $4.6 billion in redemptions. The former Treasury Secretary just called for an emergency plan for a potential bond market crash. Oil is above $100. Everything is priced for the best case. The hedge costs almost nothing when everyone believes the best case. You don't need to be Bill Ackman. You need the same concept at your scale. Tail-risk hedging for a regular portfolio: Put options on SPY (S&P 500 ETF). A put 20% below current price expiring 6 months out costs roughly 1-2% of the position you're protecting. If the market drops 30%, that 1-2% position returns 10-15x. If the market doesn't drop, you lose the 1-2% premium and your portfolio keeps running. That's the Ackman structure in miniature. Small cost. Asymmetric payoff. Raise cash to 20-30%. Park in T-bills at 5.2%. You're getting paid to wait. Set limit orders 30-40% below current prices on companies you want to own forever. AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN. If the crash comes, you buy automatically at prices you chose in advance. Allocate 5-10% to commodities that benefit from chaos. Gold miners (GDX), uranium (CCJ), energy producers (XOM, CVX) with 3-4% dividend yields. The entire Ackman thesis was one insight: markets price the consensus, not the risk. When consensus is "everything is fine" and the risk is building underneath, the hedge is cheap. Right now, consensus is "the worst is over." The Buffett Indicator says otherwise. Buffett's own cash position says otherwise. The Fed printing $40 billion says otherwise. The hedge is cheap when nobody thinks they need one. every week i break down what institutional money is actually doing and the asymmetric setups building in real time. former banker. real trades. felixfriends.org/live (bill ackman spent $27 million on credit default swaps. 30 days later they were worth $2.6 billion. he sold the hedge at the bottom, bought stocks at maximum fear, and turned it into $10 billion. the setup was visible weeks before the crash if you watched the right signals. the buffett indicator just hit the highest level in american history. buffett is sitting on $334 billion cash. private credit funds are locking people's money behind gates. the former treasury secretary is calling for an emergency plan. the hedge costs 1-2% of your portfolio. the consensus says everything is fine. it always does.)

@CogginToboggan Last time might have been 1964-75

Never thought I’d hear a “let’s go Flyers” chant during a late-April Phillies game.

@FracSlap @nimblephatty Keep an eye on Cerebras for new possibly more efficient chips.

Microsoft pulled all of our GPUs from us a couple of weeks ago without explanation. I think it's likely because Anthropic needed compute and all the small guys like us got kicked out. It's part of the game and just how it goes, but highlights how much dependency risk companies are going to have on Microsoft and other cloud providers when it comes to compute for running inference on agents. Companies are going to deploy agents then just get rug pulled on their compute. Fortunately for us, we have deep experience in energy and our clients are some of the biggest energy producers in the world. We will eventually build on-prem compute for our clients on their energy assets. This will allow them to have closed loop systems where they own the energy, the compute, and the AI stack.

@ARKInvest @PredictionMrktX I think that’s a little too optimistic. I think it’ll be another tool in the investor toolbox.

Do you think prediction markets will become a standard tool in institutional investing within the next 5 years?

@joeszaka @kylascan I’ve witnessed headlines like this over 40 years in the markets and guess what.. none of them were signs of a top. Wait for the headline that says the market is never ever going down — that’s the bell ringer

The clearest credible assessment I’ve seen on the continuing market enthusiasm in a world wracked by risk. By @kylascan