Election Time

Out of all the media companies covering the 2024 election on YouTube, we were #9. (we have a staff count of 1) @StreamsCharts

There is a 77% chance JD Vance will run for the 2028 Republican nomination, and a 67% and 65% Ted Cruz and Ron DeSantis will run, respectively. Who will run for the 2028 GOP nomination? 🟢JD Vance 77% 🔵Ted Cruz 67% 🟠Ron DeSantis 65% ⚪️Marco Rubio 64% ⚪️Josh Hawley 47% ⚪️Nikki Haley 43% ⚪️Glenn Youngkin 42% Odds via @Kalshi.

Marco Rubio is the favorite to be the 2028 Republican VP nominee, followed by Erika Kirk and JD Vance. 2028 Republican VP Nominee (Odds) 🟢Marco Rubio 26% 🔵Erika Kirk 7% 🟠JD Vance 7% ⚪️Donald Trump 6% ⚪️Glenn Youngkin 6% ⚪️Sarah Huckabee Sanders 6% Odds via @Kalshi.

My updated 2026 Senate Forecast projects that Republicans will retain control of the upper chamber of Congress with a 53-seat majority. 2026 US Senate 🔴Republicans 53 Seats 🔵Democrats 47 Seats The GOP is on track to flip Michigan while barely retaining Maine. Meanwhile, Democrats are expected to take North Carolina and hold on to Georgia. Ohio, Alaska, and Texas may be more competitive than usual, but it remains unlikely that Democrats will actually win them.

✅NEW NORTH CAROLINA SENATE POLL: Michael Whatley surges as he trails Roy Cooper by just 3%, his best poll since the beginning of the campaign. 2026 US Senate - North Carolina 🟦Roy Cooper 47% (+3) 🟥Michael Whatley 44% Public Policy Polling | March 13 - 14, 2026 | 556 RV

✅NEW OHIO SENATE POLL: Jon Husted* leads Sherrod Brown by 2%. 2026 US Senate Special - Ohio 🟥Jon Husted* 46% (+2) 🟦Sherrod Brown 44% Quantus Insights | March 13 - 14, 2026 | 784 LV

Marco Rubio SURGES in the 2028 Republican Primary for President. His odds reach an all-time high as JD Vance slips. 2028 Republican Primary (Odds to Win) 🟢JD Vance 38% 🔵Marco Rubio 28% 🟠Ron DeSantis 4% ⚪️Donald Trump 4% ⚪️Donald Trump Jr 4% ⚪️Tucker Carlson 4% ⚪️Thomas Massie 3% ⚪️Nikki Haley 2% ⚪️Glenn Youngkin 2% ⚪️Vivek Ramaswamy 2% ⚪️Brian Kemp 2% ⚪️Ted Cruz 2% ⚪️Tulsi Gabbard 2% ⚪️Marjorie Taylor Greene 2% Odds via @Kalshi.

Susan Collins* (R) is on track to be reelected against Governor Janet Mills (D) in the 2026 US Senate race in Maine, per a new poll. 2026 US Senate - Maine 🟥Susan Collins* 45% (+2) 🟦Janet Mills 43%

Following last Tuesday’s Texas Republican Primary for Senate, the race has headed to a runoff and incumbent John Cornyn* has come from behind to reemerge as the favorite. Texas Republican Senate Nominee (Odds to Win) 🟢John Cornyn* 65% 🔵Ken Paxton 37% Odds via @Kalshi.

The Kalshi Election Hub is live On top of live trades, we’ve added real-time voting data by @AP Follow every race, every trade, and every vote all on Kalshi

With the Texas primaries tomorrow, we are most likely to get a US Senate matchup between 🟥Ken Paxton and 🟦James Talarico. Texas Republican Primary for US Senate (Odds to Win) 🟥Ken Paxton 85% 🟥John Cornyn* 15% Texas Democratic Primary for US Senate (Odds to Win) 🟦James Talarico 76% 🟦Jasmine Crockett 24% Odds via @Kalshi.

James Talarico is the favorite to win Tuesday’s Democratic Primary for US Senate in Texas, ahead of Jasmine Crockett. This is despite former Vice President Kamala Harris endorsing Crockett last week. Texas Democratic Primary for US Senate (Odds to Win) 🟢James Talarico 68% 🔵Jasmine Crockett 33% Odds via @Kalshi.

There is a 61% chance that Iran will no longer have a Supreme Leader following the death of Ali Khamenei. Next Supreme Leader of Iran (Odds) 🟢Position Abolished 61% 🔵Mojtaba Khamenei 20% 🟠Hassan Khomeini 18% Odds via @Kalshi.

Republicans remain the favorites to win the US Senate in the 2026 midterms, despite tight races in many states. 2026 US Senate Seat Projection 🔴Republicans 51 🔵Democrats 49 2026 US Senate Majority (Odds to Win) 🔴Republicans 60% 🔵Democrats 40% Odds via @Kalshi.

With the Texas GOP Primary for US Senate in just a week, it's almost certain that Texas AG Ken Paxton will defeat incumbent John Cornyn. This would be the first time since 2002 that an incumbent Republican senator lost their party's renomination. Texas US Senate GOP Primary (Odds to Win) 🟥Ken Paxton 81% 🟥John Cornyn* 17% 🟥Wesley Hunt 2% Odds via @Kalshi.

What will Trump say during the State of the Union tonight? Here are the top contenders! 1. Trillion 94% Chance 2. AI / Artifical Intelligence 80% 3. Trump 91% 4. Hockey 89% 5. Fraud 88% 6. Olympics / World Cup 88% 7. TrumpRX / TrumpRX.gov 88% 8. Nuclear 86% 9. Alien 85% 10. Hottest 85% 11. ICE / National Guard 85% 12. Fentanyl / Cocaine 83% 13. Stock Market 80% 14. Affordability 79% 15. Cartel 79% Odds via @Kalshi.

Kalshi undoubtedly provides incredibly valuable information, especially with regard to politics when there is a lack of polling data. For example, @Kalshi currently projects that JD Vance is the favorite to win the 2028 election. 2028 Election (Odds to Win) 🟥JD Vance 24% 🟦Gavin Newsom 21% 🟥Marco Rubio 10%

The most likely outcome of the 2026 midterms is a 🔵Democratic-House and a 🔴Republican-Senate. 2026 Midterms: Balance of Power (Odds) 🔵🔴D-House, R-Senate 47% 🔵🔵D-House, D-Senate 34% 🔴🔴R-House, R-Senate 19% 🔴🔵R-House, D-Senate 2% Odds via @Kalshi.

Super Bowl Prediction: 🏆Seahawks 34 - 24 Patriots