Election Enjoyer 🇺🇸

Happy to announce that I am publishing the Swing District Election Simulator that i've been working on. There are fewer districts than I wanted to include due to time constraints but this file contains: AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-13 -, IA-01 and PA-07

I need everyone with any modicum of influence in the Democratic Party or prominent progressive organization to drill this into their skull: “It's a DC myth that the swing voter is a hyper-engaged centrist that writes for the Washington Post. The average swing voter is very much a heterodox moderate — some far-right views, some far-left views. And they don't really care that much about politics. They don't trust people very much. They think that politicians are in it for themselves. And they generally vote for whoever makes the economy the best and whoever has the least chaos in their opinion. So that group overlaps a lot with young voters. It overlaps a lot with Hispanic voters. It overlaps a lot in general with the types of low-propensity voters that Donald Trump has gained a lot with. …[A lot of] these people don't care about politics when a presidential election is not on the ballot. They don't even know a special election is a thing. They barely know a midterm exists.”

It only works if both sides peacefully give up power. Donald Trump decided on his first day in office to release and reward every single person who committed political violence to stop the peaceful transfer of power on his behalf in 2021. One side acting with impunity while the other is bound by decorum is not sustainable. Everyone who committed a crime should face justice.

If you set this precedent, then there is nothing stopping Republicans from doing the same to Democrats once they’re back in office. And now you’ve just destroyed the peaceful transfer of power.

It’s insane that Democrats even have a shot at the Senate. The 2026 map doesn’t favor them, but Republicans are doing so poorly with all three branches of government that they’re making it a real possibility.

@AaronBlake @stephenasmith Why doesn’t he do that right now? Politicians love to make promises before an election and then not follow through with them.

Rep. Kevin Kiley (Calif.) recently went from Republican to Republican-caucusing independent. He now tells @stephenasmith that he could caucus with Democrats next Congress if he's reelected. youtube.com/watch?v=mzsr7U…

This is the most troublesome sign I've seen for Trump & the GOP. Trump's now a record low 41 pts underwater on the cost of living per Yahoo/YouGov. He's 60 pts underwater on the issue with indies!! Wave adios to the House & maybe Senate cause you can't win with these numbers.

Some of the online discourse around this is misguided. This isn’t an ideological disagreement (Kelly was the more progressive candidate). It’s the caucus going to bat for a member they felt was more qualified — and who was also pushed out as the first Black chair of the IL Democratic Party by Pritzker.

Politico: The Congressional Black Caucus is frustrated that Governor JB Pritzker tilted the Illinois Democratic Senate primary in Juliana Stratton’s favor over Rep. Robin Kelly (D-IL) “As Pritzker eyes a potential 2028 presidential bid, some members signaled they won’t forget he crossed them.”

@aidnmclaughlin @NotHoodlum It’s all so.. tiring.

Laser-focused

NEW Crystal Ball -- Six gubernatorial rating changes today in favor of Democrats, but Republicans still have a chance to buck the usual pattern of midterm governorship loss for the president's party

@SpecialPuppy1 @dani2669848174 Owning the libs

Why are Republicans against Ranked Choice Voting?

Ossoff: "The American people need to know that the president is fundraising for his political campaign and his PAC using images of American service members killed in action, and it's a disgrace"

Jon Ossoff grilling Tulsi Gabbard on the Iran War and election meddling is so satisfying to watch

Electoral environment is going from bad to worse for Republicans in our polling — among enthusiastic voters, the generic is a tick above D+9 in our latest survey, which...that's catastrophic for Republicans. Like, if that holds, that's where Talarico becomes a near-favorite.

@Tobias_dH0172 I think part of it is anger at Obama for putting him in jail for corruption and Biden for not pardoning him in 2024.

@ElxMapping Honestly the only person that was politicizing the funeral of his father, was he himself. Unreasonably hating on quite appreciated people while the response at the funeral for them was very supportive was stupid. Son or not.

Picking fights with Obama, Biden, and Harris in the final weeks of a South Side race was not the smartest calculation, it turns out.

And despite Kelly outperforming her polls, you’d think that would help Raja — but Kelly actually beat him for 2nd place in Chicago. Some of that is racial polarization in Democratic primaries, with Black candidates drawing stronger support from Black voters. But it also speaks to how effectively the negative attacks landed against him. He had all that money and time to build a durable coalition, and it wasn’t enough.

Krishnamoorthi lost for a few reasons that compounded each other. He peaked too early, leaving voters fatigued from ad over-saturation. He was also the only major candidate carrying real baggage, with the ICE contractor donations and negative staff stories giving skeptical voters something to point to. Once Pritzker’s money put Stratton on TV at scale, his airwave dominance evaporated. And with her clearly positioning herself as the most aggressive Trump fighter in the race, she was perfectly calibrated to what Democratic primary voters are hungry for right now.

My take on the Illinois primary: Incredible upset by Stratton, propelled by a late money push from Pritzker. Respectable performance for Kelly, considering how severely outfunded she was. Atrocious result for Krishnamoorthi, who spent millions over the past year and has little to show for it.

@jamiedupree @magicpanda_703 No thanks

Sen. Thune's amendment to the SAVE America Act bans virtually all voting by mail in federal elections. ✅8 states - CA, CO, HI, NV, OR, UT, VT, and WA - only vote by mail. ✅States like Arizona, Florida, & Ohio would have to end their popular vote-by-mail programs.

@NewsWire_US Note that this is for debate. It needs 60 votes to actually pass and that ain’t happening unless the GOP gets rid of the filibuster.

51-48, U.S. Senate advances SAVE America Act

@DNIGabbard @RealTXPolitics

Donald Trump was overwhelmingly elected by the American people to be our President and Commander in Chief. As our Commander in Chief, he is responsible for determining what is and is not an imminent threat, and whether or not to take action he deems necessary to protect the safety and security of our troops, the American people and our country.  The Office of the Director of National Intelligence is responsible for helping coordinate and integrate all intelligence to provide the President and Commander in Chief with the best information available to inform his decisions.  After carefully reviewing all the information before him, President Trump concluded that the terrorist Islamist regime in Iran posed an imminent threat and he took action based on that conclusion.