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Scar 12🦈
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🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱 Haifa, Israel, as Iranian cluster bombs are seen descending while strikes continue.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇮🇱 🇮🇷Iranian cluster bomb was seen over Haifa, Israel moments ago.
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Iran’s military has exceeded U.S. and Israeli expectations: They continue to heavily strike the Gulf and Israel, and have introduced more capable and more destructive missiles as the war escalates (Karashneg with cluster munitions)
Trump has 2 options:
1. Seek an off-ramp. Accept the loss, portray it as a win to his voter base, and move to the next target: Cuba
2. Escalate: Strike Iranian infrastructure and bleed the country into submission, with the option of sending troops to seize the Strait of Hormuz
Option 1 avoids further U.S. debt and munition shortages, but gives up on the objective of controlling the Strait of Hormuz. This would be a massive win for China, giving it energy supremacy and a huge edge in the AI race.
Option 2 could lead to a capitulation of the Iranian regime, meaning U.S. control over the Straits, allowing long term leverage over China. However Iran could also turn into another forever war, a failed state, with hundreds of thousands of dead. Think Iraq, but worse
I feel Trump has made up his mind, and seems set to go all the way. The long term strategic importance of the Straits seems to outweigh the risks of another forever war
I hope he’s making the right choice, as I am extremely worried, especially if China decides to increase military support to Iran and turn the conflict into a geopolitical proxy war.
But despite things looking bleak at the moment, we may also see a capitulation of the Iranian regime, an end to the war, and the U.S. having control/influence of the Straits. Although unlikely, it is not impossible.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
No matter what Trump does next, the Middle East will never look the same - Gulf countries are pissed - Iran is more hardline - Russia & China are salivating And if the regime survives, Trump loses any chance to control the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. will come out much weaker, and China much stronger Trump should have never started this war, but at this stage may have no option but to finish the job.
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@BRICSinfo No one expected that Israel could be war ground in this 2026
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