Emiel Awad

Very happy to share that 'Learning by Lobbying' with Gleason Judd and Nicolas Riquelme (@nicriquelme7) has been accepted subject to minor revisions at the American Journal of Political Science! Please find the latest version here: osf.io/preprints/soca….

Joe Kent - August 2024: “Most Americans aren’t aware… our troops in Iraq and Syria have been attacked 150+ times by Iranian proxies.” “These Iranian proxies… are 100% funded by the United States of America.” “We’re funding the guys that are attacking our troops.” “Why do we leave our troops there?”

Israel has closed the Church of the Holy Sepulchre indefinitely for the first time in the history of Christianity. Holy Week and Easter services will be prohibited. Sunday masses and liturgies cancelled. A church that should be packed with hundreds of thousands these coming weeks is being forcibly shut and silenced. Israel cites it is for ‘security concerns’ while Jewish Israelis are allowed to celebrate in mass gatherings. Alongside the forced closure of Al-Aqsa mosque, reports cite priests aggressively being turned away to perform daily services. Throughout history, wars, tensions, or even the pandemic limited access to the sanctuary, but they had never prevented liturgical celebrations in this central place of Christian faith indefinitely. Christians must not remain silent.

White House says they asked Tulsi to fire Joe Kent. Her team says they didn’t. Kent says there was no imminent threat to justify war with Iran. Tulsi says Trump decided there was based on intelligence, without clearly stating the intel showed one. Now WH and ODNI officials are leaking conflicting accounts. The split over the core case for war is hard to miss.

After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC. May God bless America.

It appears that a Polymarket account called "Magamyman" made $515,000 in a single day betting on last night's U.S. strike on Iran, with the first trade placed 71 minutes before the news broke publicly. When this person bought in, the market had this at a 17% probability. They turned roughly $87,000 into over half a million dollars overnight. Reminder that Donald Trump Jr. sits on Polymarket's advisory board and his firm invested double-digit millions into the platform last year. The DOJ and CFTC both had active investigations into Polymarket that were dropped after Trump took office. Prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action. We need answers, transparency, and oversight.

US immigration officials picked up a blind Rohingya refugee last week in Buffalo, NY. Then, realizing they had no basis to deport him, they released him five miles from his home. He needed a walking stick and died trying to make his way back to his house: investigativepost.org/2026/02/25/bli…

Ik kan echt genieten van oerjournaliste @Natalie_Kabul die heel ambachtelijk weer cv's gaat checken en dan met zo'n geweldig verhaal komt dat de onbetrouwbaarheid en slechte rekrutering van de politiek blootlegt en daarmee meer is dan een rel.

Iedereen gaat los op Natalie van Berkel (Havo, beleidsadvies, UWV). Dat is over 48 uur weer voorbij en dan stelt niemand de vragen die er echt toe doen. Dat zijn vooral deze: #1: Wie bedacht dat ze Stas #MinFin kon worden? #2: Hoe kwam ze opeens op #2 binnen bij #D66? Kort 🧵 1/

Learning by lobbying by Emiel Awad, Gleason Judd, and Nicolás Riquelme is now available in Early View. @Emielawad @nicriquelme7 ajps.org/2025/11/03/lea…

Want to know more about the dynamic relationships between lobbyists and politicians? My paper with Gleason Judd and Nicolas Riquelme, Learning by Lobbying, is published online! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aj…

THYLACINE - Live session 2024 @ Intuitive Studio youtu.be/NM51iVhyA9U?si… via @YouTube

1177 BC: The Year Civilization Collapsed (Eric Cline, PhD) youtu.be/bRcu-ysocX4?si… via @YouTube

Think lobbying and campaign contributions are the key to how companies navigate American politics? Wrong. Corporate policy teams are where the real action is! Our new paper offers the first ever systematic, quantitative study of corporate policy teams, based on LinkedIn data on more than 100 million US workers. Key findings: --Roughly 250,000 people work in corporate policy roles in the U.S. This is about *13 times* the number of registered lobbyists! --Policy teams are growing much faster than lobbying teams, nearly doubling since 2010 while lobbying teams have barely grown. --Policy teams and lobbyists are complements; increases in lobbying teams tend to coinside with increases in the size of policy teams. --But policy team members are not just lobbyists by another name, they do something different. While lobbyists are overwhelmingly likely to have political experience, reflecting how important their relationships and political capital are, corporate policy team members often don't, suggesting they are more focused on delivering expertise, internal counsel, and managing other types of stakeholders. Navigating politics is getting more and more complex for companies today. For the most part, they haven't reacted to this complexity by hiring more lobbyists; instead, they've grown their internal policy teams. Link to full paper will be in the replies.

How do you convince the most and least skilled people to team up together in organizations? And why would you want to do something like that in the first place? Answer in our paper forthcoming in European Economic Review and in this thread. (1/12)

Criminal organizations hinder development. In El Salvador, US deportations seeded gangs whose territorial borders trap residents. Those inside have lower income, education, and well-being than neighbors just 50m away, mainly due to restricted mobility. econometricsociety.org/publications/e…

Economic outcomes often depend on the distribution of some maximum value (eg highest valuation, best idea, lowest cost). If the average number of options is large, how do such outcomes change when some agents have more options than others? @SephorahMangin econometricsociety.org/publications/e…

@Korhan_Kocak @IEuniversity @nyuad Congratulations Korhan, well deserved!!

Some professional news: I’m delighted to share that I’ve joined @IEuniversity. I will greatly miss my wonderful colleagues and students at @NYUAD, but I’m excited to begin this new chapter.

We extend Bayesian persuasion to dynamic environments with Markovian states. Optimal info disclosure trades off current vs. future discounted payoffs. We discuss optimal strategies and characterize when the asymptotic value hits its upper bound econtheory.org/ojs/index.php/…

We show a long-run player who repeatedly observes private signals and takes actions can sometimes establish a reputation even when their strategy is not identified. Our result applies to games of deterrence, delegation, signaling, and Bayesian persuasion. econometricsociety.org/publications/e…

How do people update their views when they suspect news coverage to be tainted by manipulation? In the latest Econometrica, Ricardo Alonso & Gerard Padró I Miquel propose a model on the competitive capture of public opinion. Read the full article here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.3982/EC…