Epoch

Why I’ve flipped bullish $TENX at the current valuation Part 2: KOL Commentary. KOL commentary should always be taken with grains of salt, but in all of the bullish commentary I’ve ever heard from KOLs who are on investigators on studies of a drug…the bullish commentary we are getting from the docs on the $TENX P2/3 studies is *up there*. The company held a public KOL event in November that you can listen to (in fact I’d encourage you to do so). But, to summarize/paraphrase some of what the KOLs are saying: Dr. Barry Bourlag: -”The patients love this drug” -”We have been involved in a lot of trials over the last 20 years in HFpEF, but I would say that the effects that the patients are telling us are really, really impressive.” -”Some of the stories are just really outrageous. I mean, people that have been like converted to becoming totally sedentary, men are out in the fields shotting deer and dragging the buck carcass all the way back to their truck and stuff like that.” -”...Telling me stories that they’re just night and day, just really life altering, that word is used.” Dr. Sanjiv Shah: -”It’s kind of phenomenal…But we see things we never see in trials unless they’re like positive, in a positive way.” -”What we’ve seen which is really interesting is we saw patients who felt better during the randomized phase, they wash out for 2 weeks, they feel worse again, and then they start feeling better again.” -”It’s rare in patients with HFpEF, especially PH-HFpEF, where they’re really debilitated, that anything makes them feel better. That is quite different from other medications we’ve seen in this patient population.” (There's quite a bit more like this on the November KOL call - I'd recommend checking it out if interested in the stock). So, again, we have to take major grains of salt with this. Some of what they’re saying could be overexcited KOL commentary. Some (or even all) of what they’re seeing could be placebo effects. But, these are highly seasoned KOLs who collectively have decades of PH-HFpEF trial experience…and they sure talk as if they are seeing things they haven’t seen before with this disease. Not to beat a dead horse, but we have to be very careful with this type of “evidence”. Still, the commentary is so overwhelmingly positive that for me it has to factor into the narrative/outlook for $TENX’s phase 3 readout this year.

On the day that $LLY orforglipron gets approved, $NVO will trade down:

New real-world data on mirvetuximab ocular toxicity 👁️ Keratopathy in 84%, anterior uveitis in 25%, 37% needed cataract surgery — yet zero discontinuations with proactive management. As ADCs with ocular toxicity multiply, streamlined ophthalmology referral pathways and on-staff ophthal may become essential infrastructure for oncology practices.

The statement quoted in this article by uniQure is categorically false. The company’s description of what the control arm participants are going through is completely distorted.

More cases of Kaposi sarcoma for OX40. OX. 40. Is. Done. $SNY still projecting $3-$5B peak sales for Amli is a pipe dream. This value is going to $NKTR. $NKTR is, IMO, the single most undervalued name I can find in biotech. It was *before* this news. Now… 📈 📈 📈

So $IRON gets a "commissioners priority voucher" and then a CRL. Got it, so you get rejected faster? Is that the point of the new CNPV 🤣😂

There’s virtually nobody waking up at 7:01am looking for the data/press release with Dry powder saying “if the data is good I will buy a bunch of shares” Just a lot of people with massive inventories looking/hoping for a gap up to sell into. (Present company included) Volumes on the announcement were anemic, and price discover super scattered. My guess is over the day (and weeks!) institutional investors get caught up and buy some shares.. and we get that steady “post data” grind up. (Pending no weird quirks announced in the conference call data) (NKTR is a 7% weight for me)