Cluelessbio

@aggregategains I like this model. His assumptions make sense to me and are reasonable. I know big pharma may make unreasonable capital allocation decisions but don‘t want to rely on it. So a DCF model helps imo.

@cluelessbio C’mon, reposting Stephen 😂

$abvx sobering…

@icefordinneryum I just think people ask chatgpt or reddit and then they have their answer. Even though mounjaro is so new and ozempic such a big name, novos sales already decline sharply while lillys sales increase sharply. $nvo is a cigar butt imo.

@cluelessbio In people's mind on X. I don't seriously believe that the average person knows the difference much less the wt loss comparison. Also wegovy pill will hit Europe much sooner than Lilly. I agree with your sentiment and believe Lilly is the power player but Novo has legs as well

$nvo How is novo a buy here? -2026 to 2032 Lilly eats their lunch -2032 to 2036 Lilly and generics eat their lunch -2036 forward Tirzepatid generics will kill the entire obesity+diabetes incretin market. They need to pivot to oncology and I&I asap. Stop spending on obesity.

@icefordinneryum But in peoples mind wegovy is simply the temu version of mounjaro.

@cluelessbio The Wegovy pill brand name and $NVO marketing will keep them in line for a decent share of the market. Upside isn’t a 10x or anything but enough so that I think 170B market cap is cheap. Kenvue sells Tylenol because it’s the name people know, I think this is a similar situation

@CloisterRes At a PE of ~7 imo. Then there is some margin of safety.

@cluelessbio at what valuation do you think that "LLY eats their lunch" is baked in? Should NVO trade at a 10x PE? or a 5x PE? or a 1x PE?

@physioo If NPV of $abvx is ~ $4 billion on UC and maybe ~$ 1.5 billion on Crohns then there actually is a lot of downside if no pharma is interested.

Love the business updates on $abvx Hired cco, business as usual Obv maintenance data looks good if ceo is talking about a raise post data Abivax reminds me of Verona…get the drug to market followed by a buyout

@unemon1 @A_May_MD He only ever talks about ex-US partnerships. Doesn’t inspire confidence in a buyout.

@A_May_MD So, he got asked about deals and partnerships ... and he only replied re partnerships?

$ABVX degen traders dumping the stock on a CNBC article saying exactly what I’ve been saying since the trial hit back in July, and what was already blatantly obvious from the earnings release yesterday. WAITING FOR MAINTENANCE DATA is the ideal negotiating leverage. Read the quote below from the CEO. It could not be more obvious to me that this is the correct strategy. Catalyst wait times don’t get a lot shorter than 3 months in biotech, btw. CHILL. cnbc.com/2026/03/24/abi…

@DueDoctor Don’t say something like this on abivax earnings call day…

Big news coming soon 🫡🫡🫡

@a_a_free Why would it be 1L when Dupi goes off patent in 2031?

Clearly $APGE will eat the 1L market for AD. Congrats to long.

@Maximus_Holla Doesn‘t the prospect of higher energy costs - inflation - higher rates impair the qxo strategy?

@kashfulmahjoob1 @Andre_AGTC Not in conviction LTs ... specially with this name that can get bought any day ... dont wanna miss that... qxo also wanna keep 3-5 years and dont mind adding big dips

Funny thing about Twitter… nobody ever loses money here. Only winners. I always try to post both ways! I’m currently down about $750K from ATH. Mainly: • $320K from $ABVX (when it went down from $150) • $240K from $QXO (when it went down from $27.61 ) Rest here and there! Those are still my two biggest positions and I’m holding both. Could’ve been worse but I cut some speculative names when mentioned cleaning, put on some hedges, and a few other bios held up well and even went higher! When markets get choppy with macro & geopolitical noise, the goal isn’t to force trades every day. The goal is to protect capital and control downside. Survival first. Opportunity comes later.

@LucasCrabapple @tradingsssss @pmill145 @financebully @HOThomasWPhelps @wjhuber5 @Quartr_App No, exactly not like tylenol.

@cluelessbio @tradingsssss @pmill145 @financebully @HOThomasWPhelps @wjhuber5 @Quartr_App You mean like Tylenol?

$CRVS ITK in Pfizer's radar - creating pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41803126/

@tradingsssss @pmill145 @financebully @HOThomasWPhelps @LucasCrabapple @wjhuber5 @Quartr_App Idiosyncratic liver tox is about the drug meeting a patient with rare biology, 1:1000, and cooking this patients liver, even if the other 999 have zero issues with the drug. It is about rare but catastrophic tox. At least ask a LLM..

@cluelessbio @pmill145 @financebully @HOThomasWPhelps @LucasCrabapple @wjhuber5 @Quartr_App Still crazy that you didn't see any liver elevations at 600mg BID dosed for 6 months 😂

@pmill145 @tradingsssss @financebully @HOThomasWPhelps @LucasCrabapple @wjhuber5 @Quartr_App nib + high daily dose + molecular size 400-600 + estimated lipophilicity. Its a bad combination.

@cluelessbio @tradingsssss @financebully @HOThomasWPhelps @LucasCrabapple @wjhuber5 @Quartr_App You're saying this because soq is a nib drug and you're lumping them all together (despite newer nibs being safer) or something about soq specifically that makes you think that in larger N and longer time a liver signal will develop?

@tradingsssss @financebully @pmill145 @HOThomasWPhelps @LucasCrabapple @wjhuber5 @Quartr_App All of you talking down liver risk after 25 patient-years of data (or something like that) really have no clue. You‘ve spend zero time trying to understand the idiosyncratic risk for severe DILI and the mechanisms that cause it.

2-3 month dosing periods is more than enough to mitigate any liver risk that hasn't been seen so far If we didn't have any dosing data past that, then I'd have some caution with liver risk, but we do You have immunocompromised PTCL patients and ALPS adolescent patients taking the drug for more than a year at 200mg BID and have 5-7 month data on PTCL patients at 400 and 600mg BID!!!!

@Biohazard3737 Agree. What can be targeted by a biologic instead of a small molecule, should be. Think it didn‘t help that the first „biologics“ (besides insulin) were TNFi. Had it all started with IL23i, biologics would have a different perception.

@PersimmonTI It does not mention the entrance into exclusive negotiations with AZN but mentions that abivax currently isn‘t free to negotiate with others 🙄 Sooo abvx currently isn‘t negotiating with anyone?

$ABVX La Lettre has posted a clarification on LinkedIn regarding its article about $AZN interest: “Clarification on the possible sale of Abivax and the LA LETTRE article of March 13, 2026 📣 Several financial media outlets distorted the content of the LA LETTRE article based on a communication from the biotech company Abivax. To remove any ambiguity, La Lettre does not mention the entry into exclusive negotiations of AstraZeneca with Abivax. The information relates to access only granted to Astra Zeneca to the Abivax data room.” ————————— This clarification, along with the OG article, which La Lettre prominently displayed in English and free of charge, suggests that this is a matter of some import for the French financial news publication. They are staking their reputation on this… And as to the content — there is some prior precedent in biotech M&A negotiations for access to (further) data being granted selectively to a single party based on the stage and progress of those specific negotiations over and above initial multi-party talks. One thing certain — March 23 is the date of $ABVX 2025 Full Year Financial Report and earnings release… The company may have ample incentive to report any other big news by/on that date as well. I think that $ABVX will be bought, and likely soon.

Krys is not working on this to my knowledge. But I think they really really should. There are no treatments for androgenic alopecia that don‘t have systemic antiandrogenic sides effects. Can‘t be good to put millions of young men on these drugs for years. Thanks for reading

$krys A viable approach to preventing and reversing (some) hair loss would be using krys topical HSV-1 platform to deliver an AR siRNA template or something similar. The tropism of HSV1 MIGHT prevent systemic side effects. 2/

$mane Minox is an antiandrogen just like every other drug that works for androg alop and will effect your erection quality and sex drive. Btw if applying minox topically all over your head instead of just some areas, as you should, more of it goes systemic than 2.5 mg oral. 1/