Eric Jackson

July 13 we called Drake for the World Cup final halftime at 50%. Kalshi: 5%. Last night his jet landed at JFK; Kalshi's still at 7%. We price these before the market does. Resolves tomorrow: eventhorizoniq.com/sharp

Disclosure: I hold positions across the AI-infrastructure complex like HUT, IREN, CIFR, ALAB, and ONTO. Nothing here is investment advice.

The economics say relax. The strategy says unshackle. Keep the talent, hold the physical frontier, win the defaults. Tomorrow: I gave this essay to China's best model to make it stronger. Its safety filter refused to read it. The receipt is the argument.

The war is for defaults, not margins. Whoever becomes the default open model for the next billion developers, the schools, the emerging world, sets the standard and owns the dependencies, no matter who books the fatter margin. Free and good enough wins defaults. Defaults compound.

The market is pricing a margin question. Washington has to price a standards question, a talent question, and a defense question. Those are the parts the economic frame leaves unsaid. And export controls won't save us. They didn't stop these models, they made them more efficient.

We're not losing the AI race. We're forfeiting it. @benthompson is right about the economics of the Chinese-model scare, the frontier labs will be fine. Take him seriously and the conclusion gets scarier, not calmer: margins are the wrong thing to watch. Here's what is. 🧵

Playing around with Kimi K3... It is VERY thorough

"Cheaper AI kills the trade" is exactly backwards. Lower cost per token doesn't shrink the market, it floods it with demand. That's why the neoclouds rip on every new compute deal. Jevons paradox, and it's just getting started. My breakdown with @cvpayne on Making Money today @FoxBusiness 👇 foxbusiness.com/video/64016650…

Thinking about Litecoin

MSFT Back above $400

Lessgo

Looking forward to joining @cvpayne in the next hour on Making Money on @FoxBusiness to discuss the threat of new Chinese AI models and other tech stuff

Someone actually understands what is going on.

@ericjackson Too many workers never enough owners🫡

"This was never really about just Drake." It's about whether you do the work, or you own it. A job, a platform, a deal where someone else owns what you built. The full breakdown of how the biggest artist alive turned an album into an exit filing is on my channel 👇

Oldie but goodie

Most people watch the beef. I read the cap table. Who owns the masters, who owns the platform, who's locked outside. One forensic breakdown a day — the music business read like a 10-K, not a gossip column. It was never about them. It's about whether you're a worker or an owner. #RisingDynasty Subscribe 👇 @ericjackson_emj?si=uZ2jkKbm1yXlQhL5" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@ericjackson_e… via @YouTube

Everyone heard Drake's ICEMAN as a diss album. I read it as a filing. I counted ownership language across 320 of his songs, 17 years. Flat for 15 years. Then it detonates 6x on this one album. He didn't write a diss. He wrote his exit. 🧵 The Iceman Filing open.substack.com/pub/eventhoriz…