eric madel

Good morning. Highly variable temperatures out there this morning ranging from the teens in the coldest spots up to the mid 30s near the shore. Even a few 40° readings popping up across Long Island, Block Island and the Vineyard. There was fog earlier in spots but that is burning off now. Here are your key weather themes for this last day of February through March…. ☀️Beautiful sunshine and a gorgeous day coming up today. 45 to 50° for most with light winds…that high sun angle it will feel beautiful out there. Lots of melting today. Get outside and enjoy it! ❄️🥶A brief cold shot tomorrow through Tuesday brings snow showers through the area Sunday with a coating to an inch or two for most. The Berkshires may see 2-4”. Snow moves through roughly from 9am to 5pm from west to east. The mid 30s will do it tomorrow (20s in the hills) - with the daytime snow, there may be issues with it sticking on pavement near the shoreline - but nonetheless, plan on slick spots tomorrow. ❄️🌨️🌧️ Tuesday a messy system brings snow and an icy mix inland with mostly rain near the shoreline. Timing is Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning. Near a north of the I-84 corridor there can be slick travel for the Tuesday PM commute. Best chance for accumulating snow is in the higher elevations of NW CT & MA. This is not a huge system around 0.50” +/- of liquid equivalent precipitation. Yes, this is the storm that one local page posted could bring 15-20” of snow. Now you can see why that was such an irresponsible post to cause undue stress the day after a blizzard when people will still reeling…many snowed in with no power. 🌥️💧 Mid to late next week a pattern change toward a milder regime. Temps will regularly be getting up around 50°. Lots of melting. It will trend more on the unsettled side with the chance for rain showers in the forecast each day…but not a washout and there will be some breaks of sun from time to time too. Have to keep an eye on the timing for any showers as overnight lows around for just below freezing could cause black ice and/or a few periods of freezing rain inland - but that will be the exception not the rule. Roughly a total of 0.75” liquid equivalent precipitation mid to late week, subject to change. 🔥🥵 I am still watching a potential big warm up week 2 of March…around Tues the 10th and Wed the 11th. The Euro last night had 80° at BDL! I am NOT buying that…take the under. The ensemble mean is still an impressive 66-68°. The GFS now is cooler with ensemble mean high temps in the low 60s. I think 60s are possible…maybe touching 70° inland… but these far out modeled warm ups often disappear as you get closer this time of year. Water temps are in the 30s…and back door cold fronts love to play spoiler. But the bottom line…a warm up is coming with lots of melting…and I expect river rises as we head toward mid March. We need to keep a close eye on the flood threat this year. 🤦🏻‍♂️ There are signs late March into April may turn colder and below average once again. This is the part of the forecast nobody wants to hear about. So I’ll leave it there and see how this trends. Obviously, lots of time for changes. Have a great day today - enjoy the beautiful weather!