Eric S

Elon Musk used to be the king of Reddit. Right up there with Keanu Reeves. The only thing that changed is his political party.

The Coexist and BeKind crowd are extremely violent towards those they disagree with. Fact.

@DreamAmerica_ Trump would still have won, but if we switched to this it would be a disaster for the country. Presidents would campaign in New York, Texas, and California and basically nowhere else. It’s good for presidents to focus on the whole country and especially swing states.

PETE BUTTIGIEG: "What if we selected our President by letting the person who got the most votes take the office, instead of the Electoral College?"

@TheLaurenChen Housing crash? No Housing stabilization? Yes. I’d guess home price growth of 0-3% a year for next few years.

Everyone's saying a housing crash is coming. Consumer sentiment is in the garbage. Yet odds of a recession are declining and stocks are up. Am I missing something?

@DeAngelisCorey @Moms4Liberty Average class size is 15, average salary is $60k. Ignoring the fact that 15 is ridiculously low, where is the $300k per classroom going? Should be very easy to increase teacher salary by 25% and save taxpayers money, just cut the administrative crap and increase class sizes.

North Carolina teachers are striking today and here are the union's demands. • Spend $20,000 per student • Eliminate school choice • 25% raise for all employees • "Fair maps" • Collective bargaining

@GarrettPetersen Exactly this. Red is logical and blue is suicidal if you believe most people will pick red. Blue is logical and altruistic while red is logical and selfish if you believe most people will pick blue. People tend to argue with the assumption their button will win.

The game theory of red and blue buttons involves predicting what other people will do. And what other people will do requires them to predict what other people will do. So you have a recursive prediction of other behaviour. That's why it's so sensitive to framing.

Just so we are ALL CLEAR on what happened today... Educators and school administrators single-handedly CANCELLED SCHOOL for 700,000 North Carolina students... ...INCLUDING MY SON!!! To wave signs around in the street instead. The signs vary from: a) F**K ICE!!! b) Defeat Trump's Agenda c) Trump is a N*ZI d) ICE OUT!!! e) Protect trans kids f) Refuse fascism g) Stop bombing schools DO NOT TELL ME THIS WAS ABOUT KIDS. IT NEVER WAS. This was ADULTS using 700,000 children, INCLUDING MINE, as political leverage against a president they don't like. That is despicable. You know better... DO BETTER.

@cremieuxrecueil The article claims niceness and being smart are correlated and then proceeds to be condescending and rude. The irony…

Smart people tend to be more prosocial. They give to charity, they go out and vote, they drive an environmentally-friendly car, they do less crime, they cheat less in games, they get vaccinated, and they see themselves as more altruistic🧵 A smart society is a better society.

@C_3C_3 The median conservative barely moved, the median liberal went insane

This explains everything.👇

@TexasAnCap Any prompt which chooses one red or blue button as a passive choice and the other as an active choice is intentionally bad framing. The passive choice wins in every poll.

Let's try a new prompt. Everyone is safely standing on the side of a raging river. If nobody jumps in, then everyone lives. If someone jumps in, the only way they survive is if over 50% of the people standing on the side of the river also decide to jump in. Do you jump?

@VitoComedy The question should be re-asked by someone prominent and make it clear if they are included or not

Adding babies to it is moronic because then the question is just would you risk your life to save half the world's babies Which is just not that interesting to debate

@selfmaxxer You can do the same with red: If more than 50% press red then everyone who doesn’t press the button dies

PRESSING RED IS NOT MURDER Trying to convince people to press blue is the actual murder. If there was only a blue button and you could press it or not press it, it would be the exact same game, as pressing red is the equivalent of doing nothing. Blue = immoral suicide cult.

@MrDarki257 The right answer is to guess what the majority will do. Yes you should try to contribute to saving humanity but not if you feel the chance of blue winning is 0%. Then your duty to humanity is to just survive.

Ahora que ha terminado esta encuesta y después de haber visto varios puntos de vista, he llegado a una conclusión: La opción correcta es SIEMPRE votar Azul🔵 en cualquier contexto Y en este hilo voy a explicar varios de los motivos 🧵

@GillieAmanita Red is basically a belief that your vote doesn’t matter so you may as well save yourself

I'm a blue-presser HOWEVER I talked to a red-presser and it's not necessarily a selfish or antisocial choice. In that red's mind, blue is guaranteed to lose, because when your life is on the line, they believe more people will press red than was represented in an online poll. 1/

@DrUpauli @Matthew01175314 @KrystaIAvatar Poor visualization, it should be jump into the woodchipper or jump onto a pad that will turn on the woodchipper if more than 50% of people jump onto that pad.

@Matthew01175314 @KrystaIAvatar simply visualizing the experiment changes the results DRASTICALLY

There's good reasons to chose either of them, but can we PLEASE stop saying that people who chose red are guilty of mass murder? That is genuinely the most absurd thing I've heard in a long time and fails ethics 101

@MrAlaviStarwind @MarcusNoirelius They’re private votes, they are not conditional. It is either blue or red for each person. The probability distribution presented is one possible probability distribution that could be assumed by a voter for how other people will vote.

@EricS1212 @MarcusNoirelius You sid a binomial distribution with R and B set to .5 and didn't model that B is conditional upon R. Be serious.

The logical fallacy in the argument for pressing the Blue Button is a classic non sequitur combined with an illusion of control (or more specifically, the "single-voter fallacy"/negligible marginal impact error). Why this reasoning is fallacious: The premise is true but irrelevant. Yes, it's extremely unlikely that literally every single person on Earth picks red. There will almost certainly be some blue voters. That's correct. However, the conclusion does not follow (non sequitur): The fact that millions might pick blue anyway does not mean that you picking blue will "prevent millions from dying." Your single vote has zero meaningful causal impact on whether the global total crosses the 50% threshold in a population of ~8 billion. One vote changes the percentage by ~0.0000000125%. It is statistically and practically irrelevant. If the world already ends up >50% blue, everyone lives regardless of what you picked. If the world ends up <50% blue, all blue voters die regardless of what you picked. Picking blue doesn't "save" the other blue voters. It only determines whether you personally live or die. Blue Button pressers treat your individual choice as if it has collective power it simply doesn't possess. Illusion of control/single-voter fallacy: This is the same error people make in massive elections ("my one vote will decide the outcome!") or tragedies of the commons. The idea imagines your blue vote as a heroic lever that tips the scale and rescues millions. In reality, the outcome is decided by the aggregate behavior of billions, not you. Your vote is a rounding error. Game theory reality check: Rational self-preservation says: "I have zero control over what the other 8 billion do, so I should guarantee my own survival. "If enough people reason this way (and polls + human nature suggest they will), blue stays well under 50% and blue voters die. The Blue Button logic essentially says "because some people will irrationally risk their lives, I should too so I can die with them if they're wrong." That's not altruism saving the world; it's just increasing the body count by one. The only way blue "works" is if everyone somehow coordinates to pick it, but the scenario is private voting with no communication or enforcement. That's why it collapses under scrutiny. It's emotionally appealing virtue-signaling, not sound reasoning.

@joeroganhq Roseanne was fired for far less

Jimmy Kimmel: "My country’s president would like to shut me up because I don’t adore him in the way he likes to be adored."

@JGisSatoshi @MarcusNoirelius That’s where the true debate is in my mind, idk the best number. Probably less blue than a Twitter poll, but not sure if that’s below 50/50 or not.

@EricS1212 @MarcusNoirelius Why assume 50/50?

@MrAlaviStarwind @MarcusNoirelius It is

@EricS1212 @MarcusNoirelius this is not how math works