Escape Velocity

$FRMO market cap roughly equal to its look through $TPL ownership. Cash, MIAX etc all for free. Not sure if the value ever gets unlocked, but can’t see much downside from here.

@Informatio90948 @TimothyBuffett I think market was willing to “trust” Murray to a certain degree and deal with the opacity. Doubt Bregman gets anywhere near the same valuation unless the transparency goes way up

@TimothyBuffett You can say that again. Now what? My thesis on $FRMO was Murray. Dont know about Bregman and Doyle?!

Holy shit. $MIAX $FRMO $HKHC $LB I own these all too so this is crazy and unexpected. Probably not so much from $MIAX and $LB I never started a position in $TPL, but obviously have expose through some of these.

@boujee_banker When I analyzed a while back here is what kept me out - generates solid FCF/earnings, no div, shares out flat, revs flat. Where does the cash go? So weird

Just as I feared with $TZOO

Looks like $DJCO may have sold 949 E 2nd property (based on the latest Q) - listed for $19mm, could be a chunky cash inflow

@gnoble79 It’s pay to play, but it should be disclosed. The entire paper is an advertisement, at this point should be given away for free

Dear Barron’s, Have you no shame? Have you no honor? Have you no integrity? Cathie Wood has destroyed more capital than any other fund manager in history. Morningstar ranked her ARK fund family as the #1 wealth destroyer of the past decade, vaporizing $14.3 billion in shareholder value. That's not my opinion. That's cold, hard data. Her investors poured in $29 billion in 2020 and 2021, chasing those pandemic returns. Then came 2022: ARKK plunged 67%. ARKG lost 34%. Billions in wealth, gone. Yet you feature her. You laud her. You toss her softball questions. Instead of providing useful insights and critical analysis about the disastrous returns of the ARK funds, your coverage of Ms. Wood reveals you to be a useful idiot. You aid and abet her malfeasance. ARKK's 10-year return through 2023 was 122%. The Nasdaq-100 returned 330% over the same period. She underperformed by more than HALF. The average investor who bought into ARKK experienced a negative 35% money-weighted return. Not because the fund didn't have good years. But because most investors arrived after the hype, right before the collapse. That's wealth destruction at industrial scale. And still she gets prime media real estate, promising 50% compound annual returns while sitting on a 78% drawdown from peak. You have failed your readers. You have failed the investing public. It is indeed sad to see how far Barron's has fallen. Your publication is now a mere shadow of its former self. You have become the People Magazine of finance. Kate Welling, Diana Henriques, Leslie Norton, Maggie Mahar, please call your office. Somewhere Alan Abelson is rolling in his grave. The man spent 57 years at Barron's, writing with razor-sharp analysis and fearless skepticism. He warned in 1999 that the market was more overvalued than 1987. And he was RIGHT. He would have eviscerated ARKK's track record in three paragraphs and called out anyone giving Wood a platform without accountability. That was real financial journalism. What you're doing now is something else entirely. Barron's, history will not be kind to you. MAKE BARRON'S GREAT AGAIN @DougKass

@sidecarcap Or the banks won’t exist because of Defi

The extreme negative sentiment in software resembles the ‘nobody will work in an office again’ from summer 2023. The market is acting like there’s no nuance, which of course exists in the real world.

$MSCI and $SPGI switching costs are easily overcome when your name brand competitor charges 1/10th the price. $FDS doesn’t care who you use, they own the pipe

@bucketshopcap $TW needs to go lower too, Bloomberg coming for their lunch at a fraction of the price

Just karma at this point that SPGI/info services guys blow up. Lot of lazy compounderbros always hiding in this stuff.

@slamcandie Got some engagement from $UNF!

$CTAS / $UNF deal post super bowl tomorrow? NE lost, but $UNF shareholders and Croatti family can all win. Let's do this! $315?

$BLK acquiring $FDS will instantly give it the client list it needs to scale Alladin. Without it, it’s a long slow grind.

@cohibainvestor Olympics bump for Q1

$GHC reports soon. Hoping the broadcasting gap fills for FY25

@ohcapideas Listening to the 2005 meeting today - Gates polled as #2 most desirable director behind Jack Welch. He sure slipped through the mental filters

It’s totally possible that Buffett’s falling out with Gates was more innocuous, but certainly seems possible that as the marriage was ending he found out some specific things that shocked him in light of how Gates’ reputation has evolved. Some journalist or biographer hopefully gets the full story at some point.

@DarkfireCapital @Ron284Ron @HalvioCapital $MCCK?

@Ron284Ron @HalvioCapital TFW you know exactly what stock someone’s talking about with just 2-3 bits of info…long since $26.01 here…

Microcaps are fun because a $400m company can trade 450 shares and have the stock up 8%

@mmtul I’d like to think it doesn’t take a month to figure out a way to wriggle out of this. Maybe they are actually working on a deal in good faith

$UNF has ignored or declined prior very attractive offers from $CTAS to the detriment of all common shareholders per the decisions of the supervoting Croatti family IMO. There is no reason for this company to be public when the non-supervoting shareholders are blatantly discriminated against IMO. Given the past history of disregard for non-family shareholders, and the obvious error of the board’s decision-making in retrospect IMO (as demonstrated by years of lagging performance), the Board’s decision to engage or not in a process to maximize shareholder value and consider offers should be a material, disclosure-worthy decision by the board IMO. Having known of takeover interest for at least a month, if not longer in my estimation, and given prior experience with such, why it has yet to be disclosed that a process is either ongoing or not is beyond me. Long ignored shareholders are at least entitled to know whether they will be mistreated again or not, and withholding this material information makes analysis for shareholders impossible IMO. Therefore the board should be required to disclose the very material fact of whether a process has been undertaken to maximize shareholder value or not. Isn’t it a violation of securities laws to withhold such information, and hasn’t enough time passed to decide?

@bucketshopcap @pitandhummus Starting to look like cable bros though

@pitandhummus CSU holders might be more smug than SaaS bulls used to be.

Institutions just starting to sell $CSU. Wait till Akre dumps too.

@ohcapideas Good news is that they’ve shown the ability to monetize the overfunded pension into an operating business - although I suspect that process will be slow. $CABO buy has me scratching my head - understand the history there but still

Thought I'd put together current view on $GHC. I have it about a 20% discount to its net asset value, including adding in 20% of its overfunded pension and capitalizing central costs. Given the structure of the company and its valuation history, it's not a screaming bargain. I'd put it within a range of probably where it should trade. But, it's always one to watch closely if it ever pulls back because the market does sometimes lose interest in it.

@slamcandie How do you think adding GS to the deal team figures into this?

The fact that there is no engagement on $UNF/ $CTAS online & that analysts r poo-pooing likelihood of a deal tells me the risk/reward may be good here for $UNF as no one's playing. $120+ upside [to deal price I see @ $315-320] & maybe $30-45 downside if no deal & things bad.

@slamcandie Maybe less than 10 people on X with this on their radar.

@slamcandie I agree with you, doesn’t seem like the most rational group over there though.

@EscapeVlcty Nah. The comp is not a $90 mm rev biz from 2+ yrs ago. It's likely G&K which had $987 mm in revs & was bought for 2.4x revs or what would equate to closer to $310-315 p/s which is likely the ultimate place this can get to if $UNF engages. The $UNF directors have fid duty to all.

I suspect deal would get done at @$315-320 p/s in any mix of cash/stock (that $UNF prefers), w/ a board st for $UNF & a legacy building named for Ron Croatti. The path is tougher to stay public now that its shareholders hate them & the econ is tghr. Solid accretion.

Why did $UNF hire the #1 U.S. M&A PR ADVISOR for the $CTAS offer?