Timothy

JUST IN: Snapchat announces fully AI-generated "slop" videos will no longer be eligible for Spotlight recommendations.

cool use case of chatgpt work i heard last night: connect your family calendars and explain your kids' interests. every morning for the drive to school, have it make a podcast that talks about one kid's soccer game that afternoon, one kid's upcoming birthday, some news, etc.

Getting more and more notes like this. Too weird that this feed has become a public samizdat, a secret handshake for Team Reality. Oh, you follow Berenson? Then you know the truth...

Every single individual who has entered the West illegally should be deported. Every person who has entered legally and who is loyal to an ideology that is antithetical to the West’s foundational values should also be deported. This is a battle for the soul of humanity. Wake up. Grow a pair.

Key points from $AMZN earnings call: CEO Andy Jassy: "I think we're still in the relatively early stages of how much demand there's going to be for AI." AWS: - Fifth straight quarter of AWS acceleration and fastest growth in 18 quarters. - AWS revenue was $42.2B (+37% YoY), and growth was about 80% more than Amazon's largest increase ever. - Accelerating off a 2x larger base means the absolute dollar adds are unprecedented. - Backlog is $496B which is ~2.5x Q3'25 level which derisks the capex fairly significantly. - "The lion's share of capacity in 2027...is largely reserved. And we have quite a bit of capacity that's already been reserved for 2028" - Trainium: "the two leading AI labs in the world, Anthropic and OpenAI, making multi-year, multi-gigawatt commitments" - Amazon also predict that AWS could be a $1T annual revenue business. At current growth rates, it looks like that could actually happen by 2030. Capex / FCF: - Raised 2026 capex by $20B to ~$220B. Surging memory costs are the key driver. $AAPL also confirming on their earnings e.g. "For September, we expect to pay even higher memory costs." - TTM FCF now -$7.6B because of ~67B long-term issuance in H1. "You've seen us issue debt this year... we have a lot of options available to us". - "If the demand isn't there, we won't spend the capital for servers and networking equipment" - positive signals on surging demand. - "We will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026. And I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027 too." Demand shape: - AI labs "consuming gobs and gobs of compute" like Anthropic and OpenAI. - Current enterprise production workloads "will be the largest absolute segment" - "Enterprises are still very early in using inference at scale in their current production applications" Summary: - Same message as $GOOGL, $MSFT and $META where demand exceeds supply through 2027 at least. - Binding constraint is capacity. - $496B of contracted backlog against capacity sold out two years forward just confirms demand > supply. Very good earnings overall in my opinion. Glad that the markets didn't look at the negative FCF in a bad way when you consider a contracted backlog of $496B is being built/supplied against it. Maybe the best hyperscaler earnings this quarter?

They told us immigrants were doctors and engineers - they weren’t. They told us immigrants were refugees and evacuees - they weren’t. They told us immigrants were women and children - they’re not. It’s been lie after lie upon lie.