EuropaCrypto

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EuropaCrypto

EuropaCrypto

@EuropaCrypto8

Katılım Şubat 2024
793 Takip Edilen114 Takipçiler
EuropaCrypto
EuropaCrypto@EuropaCrypto8·
@myth_pilot 1) An attempt to facilitate an energy transition during peacetime, without saying 'we can't rely on the Middle East forever' 2) A lightning rod to capture political discontent and direct it away from the establishment 2) A way to sell products
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𝐏𝐚𝐮𝐥𝐨𝐬 (Golden Age Arc)
Now that it’s winding down, what *was* the climate change movement, fundamentally? Was it a transfer scheme for the third world? Was it a means to obscure decline? Was it a tool to own domestic political opponents? What do you think
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EuropaCrypto
EuropaCrypto@EuropaCrypto8·
@qthomp The core insight here is that the Administration has taken over one role from the Fed - countering inflation, disrupting the bus cycle - and that moving forward we may see events like Epic Fury taking place as an analogy to rate hikes/liquidity withdrawals when things get too hot
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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
Global policymakers are staring down the barrel of an uncontrollable situation. They are simultaneously attempting to devalue the dollar, suppress bond yields and manipulate commodity prices lower. They have succeeded in the short-term and it has felt like crack cocaine for global equity markets. The stock market strength has masqueraded behind the "AI singularity" narrative as there has been no other obvious reason for such a large equity move amidst the background of such a worsening supply chain backdrop. This is leaving most market participants unaware of what is really going on under the hood. Why it is about to become uncontrollable, however, is due to the nature of the beast. All of the government interventionist tactics I listed above are economically stimulative and financial condition loosening. 1. Suppressing the dollar eases global liquidity (on top of already ~$500B in ongoing Fed QE disguised as 'RMPs') and sends stocks higher, creating a positive wealth effect, reinforcing growth and inflation. 2. Suppressing bond yields makes financing costs cheaper all else equal for businesses and consumers, reinforcing growth and inflation. 3. Manipulating commodity prices lower provides stimulus for businesses and consumers, avoiding the higher prices required to force demand destruction and bring on more production, reinforcing growth and inflation. All of this is occurring during a man made commodity supply shock. This is like putting your car into cruise control at 100 mph into a brick wall and has justifiable comparisons to COVID. The incredible amount they are 'pushing on a string' has become so extreme that it would not surprise me to see escalation in the war very soon as a means to reintroduce economic uncertainty and ensure physical commodity shortages in an attempt to dampen economic demand to try to stymie growth and inflation in the short-term. For all of the criticisms this administration has laid upon predecessors, they are setting new records for market intervention, manipulation and suppression of free market forces, particularly a a time when the economy is consistently growing >5% nominal GDP and asset prices make new all-time highs. They are purposefully and knowingly blowing a massive financial market bubble in an attempt to smooth over cracks elsewhere in geopolitical and approval/ratings problems. This is extremely dangerous and inappropriate behavior and policy that will come back to bite much harder than it would if they took the pain now. It is such a nuanced corner of the economy and markets that even most investors, traders and participants will either 1) not know what I'm talking about or 2) dismiss it, however that should not stop people from speaking up about what is happening. Global policymakers need to either 1) stop recklessly juicing liquidity and stimulating markets, manipulating the cost of capital and suppressing free market commodity prices or 2) face a 1970s style inflation resurgence. This is exactly what was done in 2020/2021 so it should be a surprise to no one when the 2022 repercussions present themselves again. We are on the precipice of a new and highly eventful chapter of economic history.
Quinn Thompson@qthomp

Policymakers are running the economy so unbelievably hot right now that I am starting to think it has approached or surpassed recklessness. The Treasury has completely taken over control of the money supply and financial conditions with their ongoing ATI/YCC actions and most recently manipulation of the dollar lower which dramatically loosens financial conditions. While most of these actions are occurring out of the normal spotlight because the Fed is trapped with an inflation problem and cannot reasonably cut rates, they are not innocent. They are effectively running QE with stock markets at all-time highs with their RMPs that Powell did not discuss at all in yesterday's FOMC, despite their own guidance that the purchases would subside in April after tax day. This QE, labeled as 'reserves management' allows the Treasury to continue irresponsible issuance policies. I characterize these actions as potentially reckless because they put substantial upward pressure on both inflation and economic growth at a time when nominal GDP is already consistently printing >5%. These actions are typically seen coming out of crises, not pre-emptively. With global bond markets already twitchy and the most fragile and overleveraged they've ever been, these policies are like throwing gasoline on a fire. Lost in the shuffle of today's Yen intervention is the fact that this is yet another loosening of financial conditions in the US and more inflationary tinder. Global sovereign bonds get uglier by the day. Notice Japan's yields calling bluff today.

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EuropaCrypto
EuropaCrypto@EuropaCrypto8·
@GodCloseMyEyes That Ryan Holiday dude is like San Altman in that his whole physiognomy, manner etc SCREAMS at me to run away at full speed, never trust anything they say
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EuropaCrypto
EuropaCrypto@EuropaCrypto8·
@QwQiao @PreStocks You called it the 9th inning in Jan 25 which was correct for most of crypto too. DATs and ETF bid kept BTC and ETH afloat during what was essentially a bear market through ‘25 (indicated by PA on alts ex majors, plus onchain activity) which caught many offside.
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qw
qw@QwQiao·
track record this year (u can find my tweets): nailed the pico bottom for crypto zcash in the 200s anthropic (on @PreStocks) in jan hyperscalers and semis in jan ignored iran war u r welcome
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CarpeNoctom
CarpeNoctom@CarpeNoctom·
hey remember $SOL? E2E loading
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bet more
bet more@Betmoreee·
@cousincrypt0 As an Irish Wigger you did it perfect but next time throw that fucking pint at whoever poured it and make them fill it the brim next time, inflation so bad they skimmin pints now
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cousin
cousin@cousincrypt0·
Rate my split 1-10
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EuropaCrypto
EuropaCrypto@EuropaCrypto8·
@RosenvoldGeo Is it possible that 1) US is in no hurry to normalise things bc it wants leverage over Hormuz during talks with China on 14th-15th May 2) US wants UAE gas off the market to benefit its domestic natural gas industry? US strategy makes more sense if those things are true imo
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James 𝕏ond
James 𝕏ond@james_xond·
Can anyone pinpoint the exact moment when everything in society started getting noticeably worse?
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captive dreamer
captive dreamer@captive_dreamer·
Never let Keith Woods forget who he is.
captive dreamer tweet media
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EuropaCrypto
EuropaCrypto@EuropaCrypto8·
@Crypto_Moe84 That guy is an attention-seeker. Embarrassing behaviour for a grown man.
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Moe
Moe@Crypto_Moe84·
The worst trendline I See in My Life … This has nothing to do with a trendline A trendline needs 3 touching-points to be strong and fixed …. Rekt pls stop blah blah blah
Rekt Capital@rektcapital

#BTC Many are asking why I drew the Macro Downtrend this way I drew it in late November 2025 (and haven't changed it since) as a speculative line of best fit which proved to have been an almost picture-perfect rejection point for the January 2026 upside wick Though Bitcoin missed this trendline by barely 3%, the Downtrend has been proven to be a valid reaction point for price and it will probably continue to be that way The best trendlines are the ones that are drawn based on timeless TA principles ahead of time and then later their credibility is verified by price reacting from them $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

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XO
XO@Trader_XO·
Bitcoin seasonality, with context: May stats: • Positive ~60% of the time (8/13 years) • Avg return: ~+8% • Median return: ~+3% Only once has BTC had March, April, May all green (2019) This year so fsar: • March: +1.81% • April: +11.87% May opened at 76.3s Does May end up being positive by month end?
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EuropaCrypto
EuropaCrypto@EuropaCrypto8·
@fejau_inc @dammitjim77 From a viewer’s perspective, you often act like the Host, which tends to see you offer a view less often than, and not necessarily challenge the view of, Quinn and Tyler. Understanding your view often requires some knowledge of your recent tweets. I do enjoy the pod 👍
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fejau
fejau@fejau_inc·
We’re not like a collective mind or something…. We’re three people with different opinions on different things that talk about markets every week. I always find it so weird when people treat us as one entity with a single opinion. Super odd. I’ve been extremely bullish stocks and specifically Ai related stocks for over a month now and have been very clear about it on my X account here and presented the thesis on the roundup. What more do you guys want…?
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EuropaCrypto
EuropaCrypto@EuropaCrypto8·
@wotancore Would you recommend the walking with weighted vest? What did it do for you, if anything?
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Charles
Charles@wotancore·
Used to know this old man who would go for long walks with a weighted vest every day. Bought one and started joining him. When he found out I lift, too, he felt deeply betrayed and called it “cheating.” That was our last walk.
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EuropaCrypto
EuropaCrypto@EuropaCrypto8·
@BenKizemchuk You’ve been bearish for >6 months. The bearish case you envisioned came to pass, you got a steady loss of momentum then ~10% drawdown. What exactly is it you’re foreseeing that’s keeping you bearish through all that and a subsequent V-shape recovery? 20-30% drawdown? 1929?
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Ben Kizemchuk
Ben Kizemchuk@BenKizemchuk·
14% rally, island into ath, rallied .5% then closed at low. Is that exhaustion?
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EuropaCrypto
EuropaCrypto@EuropaCrypto8·
@RestoreBritain_ Wrong call. If you’re serious about taking power you need to seize it, staff it with your people, change its charter etc
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Restore Britain
Restore Britain@RestoreBritain_·
The BBC is attacking Restore Britain, again. For the avoidance of any doubt - a Restore Britain Government would defund the rotting BBC and let it collapse under its own arrogance.
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