Evan A. Feigenbaum

69.3K posts

Evan A. Feigenbaum banner
Evan A. Feigenbaum

Evan A. Feigenbaum

@EvanFeigenbaum

Leading Asia expert experienced across government, markets, and think tanks. Advisor to two Secretaries of State, a former Treasury Secretary, and global CEOs.

Washington, DC Katılım Mayıs 2014
8.2K Takip Edilen52.9K Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Evan A. Feigenbaum
Evan A. Feigenbaum@EvanFeigenbaum·
In Asia, the United States is long on attitude, short on strategy. Re-upping this podcast deep dive I did last year into America's gathering policy failures in Asia. I pull the thread on several themes: 1. America's oversecuritization of its approach to Asia - to borrow the same metaphor, Washington is long on security and short on just about everything else. As I sometimes tartly put it, the United States is in serious danger of becoming "the Hessians of Asia." 2. Washington's strategic narcissism in filtering its entire Asia strategy through the prism of American competition with China. In other words, rather than trying to "get China right by getting Asia right," we are instead making every policy, initiative, and relationship derivative of America's own focus on Beijing. 3. Our collective national failure to adapt to an integrating Asia - one that is more "Asian" and less "Pacific" and more closely resembles its historical norm rather than the Cold War anomaly. 4. Our persistent inability to understand that Asian countries have domestic politics too - and how that, in turn, sometimes leads American policymakers both to misread Asian countries' interests and overestimate American leverage. 5. Why the United States isn't getting enough strategic traction EVEN in the Asian countries that are most ambivalent about the rise of Chinese power. When the mathematical operations that matter in Asia (and elsewhere) are addition and multiplication, it is strategically nonsensical to go long on subtraction and division. 6. What the Trump team gets right - for instance, about why Asian governments aren't attracted to a highly ideological American approach to their region - but then gets wrong in the execution and thus risks losing the strategic plot. 7. Why Washington won't be able to successfully ring-fence security cooperation by invoking shared fears of China while simultaneously coercing its allies and partners in the economic and technology domains. 8. Why China is more resilient than the United States thinks - but why Beijing, for all its strategic, political, ideological, and systematic differences from Washington, often shares American strategic narcissism. 9. How Beijing went from loathing sanctions to using them, copycatting the American architecture and, as I bluntly put it here, "learning from the best" - namely, Americans. Give the podcast a listen. The United States needs to approach Asia as it is, not the region of its wishes, dreams, and fantasies. pacificpolarity.substack.com/p/evan-feigenb…
Evan A. Feigenbaum tweet media
English
5
29
91
31.6K
Evan A. Feigenbaum retweetledi
Reuters China
Reuters China@ReutersChina·
The U.S. and Japan on Thursday released an action plan for their efforts to develop alternatives to China for critical minerals and rare earths supply chains, focusing initially on price floors for a select group of minerals. reuters.com/business/aeros…
English
0
3
12
2.5K
Evan A. Feigenbaum
Evan A. Feigenbaum@EvanFeigenbaum·
@Suman_O_Suman A strengthened Russia, the collapse of Western sanctions, China still purchasing both Russian and Iranian energy, and the U.S. forced into this because it's mired in the Gulf and doesn't yet have an answer to Hormuz ... yeah, that's actually 63D chess.
English
0
0
3
66
Suman Pradhananga
Suman Pradhananga@Suman_O_Suman·
@EvanFeigenbaum If other countries begin to buy Russian oil, China will no longer have monopoly over Russian oil. This means China is losing. Isn't that a 3D chess by Trump?
English
1
0
0
57
Evan A. Feigenbaum retweetledi
Ed Finley–Richardson
3 VLCCs pass Bab el Mandeb w/ AIS on. All 3 are: Chinese 🇨🇳
Ed Finley–Richardson tweet media
English
10
90
439
41.8K
Evan A. Feigenbaum retweetledi
Under Secretary of State Jacob S. Helberg
This $8.5 billion partnership is a testament to the enduring bond between our two nations. These critical minerals are the backbone of tomorrow's innovation, and there's no better partner to do it with. Huge credit to Ambassador Rudd and the team for forging ahead on such a vital initiative! 🇺🇸 🇦🇺
Kevin Rudd AC@AmboRudd

Australia and the US are forging ahead with an $8.5 billion critical minerals partnership. Delivering supply for the US and our allies to build the future, with absolute supply chain security. Great to have your support, Under Secretary Helberg.

English
2
26
127
10.2K
BobL
BobL@BobLu6·
@EvanFeigenbaum It maybe called “strategic overthink”: take unpredictable and un-strategic moves as strategic ones and expect the other side to be affected strategically.
English
1
0
3
334
Evan A. Feigenbaum retweetledi
Evan A. Feigenbaum
Evan A. Feigenbaum@EvanFeigenbaum·
I realize the speaker is a Chinese scholar but seriously, now let’s do the ostensibly pro-U.S. governments in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and across the globe that have had productive and multifaceted relations with China over many years, including on energy, technology, and much more. The straight line presumption so many people are making from “let’s just change the regime” to “China is now completely and totally screwed!” really flies in the face of much evidence to the contrary. China has never put all its eggs in any region into the basket of a single partner, much less only Iran and Venezuela.
Tuvia Gering 陶文亚@GeringTuvia

"Should a pro-US government emerge in Iran and gain control of this strategic waterway, China’s energy security would face far greater risks. Moreover, a US-Iran conflict could also deal a blow to the international nuclear non-proliferation regime" - Zhao Minghao, a professor at and deputy director of the Centre for American Studies, Fudan University, and a China Forum expert, in an op-ed to SCMP. "Washington has not abandoned the pursuit of regime change but may be experimenting with lower-cost methods of exerting control over other states. Beijing is unlikely to treat the war as a distant regional crisis; rather, it will view it as a test of Washington’s long-term strategic intentions. If Trump does visit Beijing soon, he is likely to face difficult questions from China’s leadership." scmp.com/opinion/china-…

English
7
8
71
12.3K
Evan A. Feigenbaum retweetledi
Stephen Stapczynski
Stephen Stapczynski@SStapczynski·
Right now, South and Southeast Asia are being hit the hardest. The jump in spot prices mean many just can’t afford to buy replacement shipments Most of the LNG from Qatar and the UAE (which can’t deliver because of Hormuz closure) goes to Asian countries
Stephen Stapczynski tweet media
English
5
47
120
28.2K
Evan A. Feigenbaum retweetledi
Ryan Hass
Ryan Hass@ryanl_hass·
There’s no question Trump has main character energy on the global stage. I am hearing the opposite of the conclusion of this piece, though. Beijing views Trump’s postponement as a sign that he has lost control of the plot on Iran, rather than dictating events there and globally.
Jonathan Cheng@JChengWSJ

China Hoped Trump Summit Would Cement Its Superpower Status. Now Xi Has to Wait. The president’s postponement of planned meeting signals that the U.S.—not Beijing—still sets the global agenda @Lingling_Wei wsj.com/world/china/ch… wsj.com/world/china/ch…

English
17
47
155
26K