Everyday Chewing
357 posts




















We’re our rating on $META today from "Overweight" to “Underweight” because the thesis on $META is dangerously blind to the reality of its $700B capital destruction cycle, where a massive $600B investment in data center infrastructure has yet to yield a model capable of outperforming lean, Chinese open-source labs. This disconnect suggests a terminal decline in R&D efficiency, transforming a high margin software leader into a capital heavy utility burdened by a massive debt issuance overhang that is structurally repricing its credit spreads. If the equity breaks the psychological $500 support level, the "ample financial flexibility" narrative collapses, likely forcing a catastrophic halt to their AI roadmap to protect the remaining balance sheet. Ultimately, Meta is liquidating its advertising cash cow to fund a speculative infrastructure bet that currently offers no demonstrable alpha, making the stock a high conviction "Sell" as FCF yield continues to compress under the weight of unprecedented, non accretive capex




