Excalibur Metals

XAUUSD . ⚠️ GOLD IS ABOUT TO HUMBLE A LOT OF “EXPERTS” HERE 😈📊 So the thing I was waiting for — a daily candle closing below $4500 and the market starting to trade below that level — has finally happened. Along with that, traders who were sitting with a bullish bias have started losing confidence, and positional swing sellers have now entered below $4500. This is clearly visible in the market. Now the important question is: will the market recover or not? And even if it does, from which levels can we expect a recovery? Let’s break everything down. I always believe in the “3 chance theory” in the market. Most traders will try once, maybe twice, and maximum three times to chase a direction. For example, when the market first broke down below $4500 earlier this week, we saw an immediate reversal. Because of that, traders who bought at $4500 got their stop losses hit, but seeing the reversal, they entered long again. Then again, yesterday the market broke $4500, hitting their stop losses once more. But after seeing another recovery, they re-entered buys. And today again, their stop losses have been hit. Now traders are becoming emotional, and today might be the final hope for buyers. After this, buyers could get completely wiped out. At that point, the majority will start believing that the market will crash straight down from here with no buying move. That’s the nature of the market — after multiple failed attempts in one direction, people lose money, give up, and either shift their bias or start trading emotionally with the crowd. This is exactly where market makers take advantage. And something similar is likely to play out in gold today — that’s my view. Now let’s talk about the plan of action, both level-wise and psychologically. For now, the $4446–$4466 zone is very important. As long as the market defends this zone, I believe we’ll see a fight between bulls and bears. The market may intentionally move upward to attract buyers again at higher levels. But this buying won’t be genuine — it will likely be a move to hit the stop losses of sellers who entered below $4500 during today’s opening. That’s what market psychology suggests. For today, the $4502–$4516 zone is very important. Unless we get a strong 30-minute candle close above this zone, no fresh directional bullish move will start — this is purely based on levels. So my plan for today is: As long as the price is above $4446–$4466, I’ll look to trap sellers and try to catch small buying moves. I expect the market to slowly move toward $4500 during the day. After that, near the day’s high, we could see another sharp crash in gold. My overall psychology for today is that the market may give buyers one final hope — especially those who have been chasing buys repeatedly — and then completely break that hope with a strong selling move. After that, once everyone turns bearish, we can look for buying opportunities from the bottom. If during the day, after the fight between buyers and sellers, the market breaks down below the $4446–$4466 zone, we can expect a strong selling move again — mainly to hunt remaining buying liquidity and invite panic selling from retail traders. My downside targets after breakdown are: $4420–$4400 $4350–$4367 And in an extreme case, $4320 (I don’t expect the market to go below this level) So the plan is clear: As long as price is above $4446–$4466, focus on small buying moves and trapping sellers Observe the market for the next few hours, especially till the NYC session If price reaches around $4500, look for selling opportunities only with proper 30-minute confirmation If strong buying starts above $4500 with high volume, do NOT chase selling — wait for confirmation in everything you do I hope you liked today’s psychological market analysis along with key levels. Wishing you all the best for today’s trading — have a great day. Also, what’s your market analysis? Let me know in the comments 👍