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ExitStrategyWorld.com

@ExitStrategyW

Create Your Own Free World™ ESW is bulk crypto, PMs, offshore PMs vaulting & asset protection services. For CANUS PMs shipped to your home: https://t.co/GZmC3LoozJ

NYC/NJ/Cheyenne, WY Katılım Ekim 2023
397 Takip Edilen618 Takipçiler
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Daniel Davis Deep Dive
Daniel Davis Deep Dive@DanielLDavis1·
I hope our Pentagon and White House officials realize that even if we successfully seized all those locations – which is a bridge too far for the total amount of troops being contemplated – but that would barely inhibit Iranian attempts to keep the Strait closed. That does nothing to inhibit the submarines Iran has, the torpedoes, the underwater missiles, the speed boats with anti-ship missiles, the short range, medium range, and long range missiles that can range the Strait anywhere in their country, or coastal artillery. If the attempt on the ground is made to open up Hormuz, it will fail spectacularly and at a high cost in blood.
Collingwood 🇬🇧@admcollingwood

This would be a stunningly bold attack. I've circled on a map the locations. Such an operation would likely seek to capture the key coastal area through which the Iranians block the Strait while securing areas that could be used for logistics to support as Kurdish uprising/invasion. Here, I think that the Afghan invasion of 2001, Operation Enduring Freedom, might be a good template to examine. First the CIA went in with suitcases full of 100 dollar bills to buy support. Then, the US used elite light infantry and special forces, including British and Australian, to rush through key landing zones, logistics routes and cities to support the advance of the Northern Alliance. The Iranian planners and commentators have probably looked at exactly this when they consider likely US options, hence their suggestion that this is what Washington might be planning. Meantime, if the Pentagon is indeed looking at Bandar Abbas, they might think that by taking the coast, the USN could then perhaps to force the Strait. Key here, though, is that it would solve little in the short term. The Iranians would still have the capacity to fire missiles and drones across the full depth of the theatre (albeit some would be redistributed toward US invading forces). In fact, such an invasion would likely intensify attacks on those particular pain points which increase pressure on the US to bring things to an end. That means higher oil prices unless the market felt the Strait might be opened and oil facilities would escape without much further damage. The establishment of a Kurdish statelet would solve nothing, and once the US left (which it inevitably would, even if it took twenty years, like in Afghanistan, or ten, like in Vietnam), the Iranians would seek to retake their territory (as the Russians did in Chechnya after it was originally lost). Ultimately, if the invasion looked as though it was putting at risk the Iranian strategy of a countervalue campaign, they would be put in a 'use it or lose it' position that would hugely incentivise them to destroy Gulf oil production facilities, which would mean no oil whether the Strait was open or not. It is difficult to overstate the scale of the economic catastrophe that this would be for the world —and most mainstream media understate it significantly, treating it as thought it just meant higher oil prices. Finally, a move to bring the Kurds into the war would bring Turkey in, too, further destabilising the region—although Israel would be no doubt delighted with this, killing two birds with one stone. In conclusion, while such an attack could be another tactical success (if it worked, which would be far from certain), and would certainly do great damage to Iran as a nation, it is difficult to see how it would get the US closer to its strategic aim. Instead, it would increase the risk of global economic catastrophe, and shift the US into the zone of necessary permanent engagement as allies, corporations and the logic of committing yet more chips to the table would require and demand long term involvement. Is this even possible? Where would this be staged from? Europe?

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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
BREAKING: U.S. officials & Wall Street analysts are now reportedly preparing for the possibility of $200 oil.
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Collingwood 🇬🇧
Collingwood 🇬🇧@admcollingwood·
Now compare with Europe. The lesson here is that the greatest pressure to end this war -- from the catastrophic economic effects that the mainstream media has only just started grasping, and of which they are nowhere near the true potential scale -- will fall on the rest of the world. Insofar as they are felt at all by the US it will be mainly through the ripple effects of economic collapse elsewhere (capital flows and trade, etc) and much lesser direct efects, especially if Trump manages to impose export controls on US crude and get the grades the US doesn't produce from Canada. The shale revolution made doing business in Europe more expensive than in the US. Then, the US injected far more fiscal stimulus into the economy than Europe in response to the global financial crisis. This led to the divergence in GDP/capita numbers over the last 20 years. Europe's response to Russia's invasion to Ukraine made that worse, and now, this is going to make it even worse again. Meanwhile, US private equity will continue to loot EU assets at cheap valuations.
Javier Blas@JavierBlas

For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices. That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than oil, but as significant.

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Mike Shelby
Mike Shelby@grayzoneintel·
@adamscrabble What is winning? Boots on ground to capture uranium? Reopening the Strait? Regime change? No one has explicitly stated what winning is, but we've heard 100 different things.
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Lukas Ekwueme
Lukas Ekwueme@ekwufinance·
This is a perfect illustration of how we perceive the Hormuz risk. Everyone is seeing the avalanche coming, yet everyone thinks that somehow it is under control... it isn’t. There is no plan. No alternative routes that can scale fast enough... Hormuz opened or closed is all that matters. The current avalanche is so big and dangerous that markets think this will resolve quickly due to the heavy economic costs... it won’t. One month in, we hear reports that this operation might take from a few weeks to six months, to years... the avalanche will hit much earlier Within a few weeks: - Taiwan runs out of LNG -> no AI - Fertilizer supplies are getting decimated -> no food - Japan, Europe, Australia run out of diesel The only thing keeping markets afloat is an unreasonably high amount of hopium... once it's gone, expect a violent rerating
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ExitStrategyWorld.com@ExitStrategyW·
@wander_investor Well they’ve got to deflect from the TCC press gangs all over #Ukraine somehow. That said, the @telegram near ban is counterproductive and hurts #Russia’s ability to get its own message out to the English-speaking world. And real RU mobilization esp if US invades #Iran is coming.
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The Wandering Investor
The Wandering Investor@wander_investor·
“Based Russia”
Nick Hudson@NickHudsonCT

How military conscription happens in Russia—a thread Gosuslugi (the Russian digital ID system) has become a central hub without which life in Russia is almost impossible. Through it, people obtain documents, schedule doctor appointments, and more recently, receive electronic military summons. If a citizen does not confirm receipt, their rights are automatically restricted (leaving the country, selling property, driving a car) — which is a direct implementation of digitally "switching off" an individual from the system. This represents one of the most radical examples of a state transforming into a digital control mechanism in modern history. What was once a portal for paying parking fees or booking passport appointments has become a digital cage. Before this law (2023), a military summons in Russia had to be delivered in person and signed for. People would simply avoid opening the door or live at different addresses. Now, a summons is considered delivered the moment it appears in your personal Gosuslugi account — or, if you do not have an active account, 7 days after it is entered into the "Unified Register of Conscripts." The travel ban activates immediately upon delivery of the summons — before the 20-day window begins. If a citizen then fails to report to the military office within 20 days, the following additional restrictions are triggered: - Driving ban: The driver's license becomes invalid in the traffic police database. - Ban on buying/selling real estate: The land registry (Rosreestr) blocks any transactions. You cannot sell property to leave the country. - Credit ban: Banks automatically see that the applicant is subject to conscription restrictions and loan access is blocked. - Business restriction: You cannot register a company or work as a freelancer (self-employed). In Russia, it is nearly impossible to function without a Gosuslugi account. You use it to enroll your child in school or kindergarten. You receive QR codes through it (as seen during the pandemic). When people began attempting to delete their accounts in March 2023 ahead of the spring conscription drive, the authorities disabled the "delete account" option on the website. This happened proactively on March 31, 2023—the same day the Defence Ministry announced electronic summonses—rather than in response to a mass exodus already underway. The system is integrated with a network of over 200,000 cameras in Moscow equipped with facial recognition. In documented cases, the flagging has occurred specifically when a conscript contests his draft order in court—at which point the enlistment office enters him into the system as an alleged evader, triggering a facial recognition alert and enabling police to detain him on the spot. It is not confirmed as a blanket automatic trigger for anyone who has simply received a summons and not yet reported. The state can effectively cut a person off from the social and economic bloodstream—without the ability to drive, manage money, or use property. This became reality in Russia faster than almost anywhere else because the state used war as justification to merge all databases (tax, police, medical, and military) into one central system. Russia no longer uses technology merely as a service for citizens, but as an operational tool of enforcement. 🧵

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ExitStrategyWorld.com@ExitStrategyW·
@DrkStarNews @PrepperCanadian Clearly more than something swiftly reparable but probably not as extensive damage as the doomers and 6th columnists are saying. The no longer even denied SBU/GUR use of @NATO members Finland and Baltic states territory/airspace to attack #Russia is the most alarming escalation.
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Dark Star 🔥
Dark Star 🔥@DrkStarNews·
@PrepperCanadian Weird how Iran scores some major hits then Ukraine comes back and does the same. Looks like proxy war went global.
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Canadian Prepper
Canadian Prepper@PrepperCanadian·
The whole place is being destroyed while Putin waits for "day X". This is not a pinprick, and it is not something they can quickly fix, no matter what the copers are saying. This place is being f*cked beyond repair. If U.S. boots commit to a ground operation in Iran and Russia and China still do not make major moves, I would be astonished.
Пан Пачковский@Q0MT6pFmbVqynsM

Усть-Луга спутниковые снимки последствий сегодняшней повторной атаки дронов СБУ

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The Aramaic Wire ܣܘܪܝܐ
The Assyrians are the oldest people in the world, older even then the Jewish nation, and they speak Aramaic, Christ's tongue. Their civilization predates Christianity itself. They built a Church that spread Christianity to China & India. What did we do to them? Iraq War -> Gone. 1.5m -> 150,000 in Iraq. Let alone Turkey, let alone Syria, let alone Iran. The Maronites are the oldest Christians in the Levant. The cedar that built the Temple is found in their homeland. They were the backbone of the French-Lebanese project, they were the pillar of its prosperity & stability. What happened to them? In 1932, they were a majority; now they are becoming a besieged minority, stuck between the IDF & Hezbollah. The Christian communities of Syria are a mosaic of the oldest Christians in the world. The Christians of Antioch. Aramaic speakers, Greek speakers, Arabic speakers. From Orthodox to Catholic to Syriac. Literally the land of the Apostles. What happened to them? Civil war (a proxy war). 2m in 2011 -> 500,000 today. Why are we allowing this to happen? Why does our conscience not ache? Why are we voting in "Christian" politicians who ignore the greatest tragedy in all of Christendom?
The Aramaic Wire ܣܘܪܝܐ tweet media
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COKE❄️
COKE❄️@0xcoked·
@KtunaxaAmerika @admcollingwood Azerbaijan has no political capital to get involved, its Azeri population is already furious about Trump attacking Iranian Azeri lands in Tabriz et al.
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Collingwood 🇬🇧
Collingwood 🇬🇧@admcollingwood·
This would be a stunningly bold attack. I've circled on a map the locations. Such an operation would likely seek to capture the key coastal area through which the Iranians block the Strait while securing areas that could be used for logistics to support as Kurdish uprising/invasion. Here, I think that the Afghan invasion of 2001, Operation Enduring Freedom, might be a good template to examine. First the CIA went in with suitcases full of 100 dollar bills to buy support. Then, the US used elite light infantry and special forces, including British and Australian, to rush through key landing zones, logistics routes and cities to support the advance of the Northern Alliance. The Iranian planners and commentators have probably looked at exactly this when they consider likely US options, hence their suggestion that this is what Washington might be planning. Meantime, if the Pentagon is indeed looking at Bandar Abbas, they might think that by taking the coast, the USN could then perhaps to force the Strait. Key here, though, is that it would solve little in the short term. The Iranians would still have the capacity to fire missiles and drones across the full depth of the theatre (albeit some would be redistributed toward US invading forces). In fact, such an invasion would likely intensify attacks on those particular pain points which increase pressure on the US to bring things to an end. That means higher oil prices unless the market felt the Strait might be opened and oil facilities would escape without much further damage. The establishment of a Kurdish statelet would solve nothing, and once the US left (which it inevitably would, even if it took twenty years, like in Afghanistan, or ten, like in Vietnam), the Iranians would seek to retake their territory (as the Russians did in Chechnya after it was originally lost). Ultimately, if the invasion looked as though it was putting at risk the Iranian strategy of a countervalue campaign, they would be put in a 'use it or lose it' position that would hugely incentivise them to destroy Gulf oil production facilities, which would mean no oil whether the Strait was open or not. It is difficult to overstate the scale of the economic catastrophe that this would be for the world —and most mainstream media understate it significantly, treating it as thought it just meant higher oil prices. Finally, a move to bring the Kurds into the war would bring Turkey in, too, further destabilising the region—although Israel would be no doubt delighted with this, killing two birds with one stone. In conclusion, while such an attack could be another tactical success (if it worked, which would be far from certain), and would certainly do great damage to Iran as a nation, it is difficult to see how it would get the US closer to its strategic aim. Instead, it would increase the risk of global economic catastrophe, and shift the US into the zone of necessary permanent engagement as allies, corporations and the logic of committing yet more chips to the table would require and demand long term involvement. Is this even possible? Where would this be staged from? Europe?
Collingwood 🇬🇧 tweet media
WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧@WarMonitor3

BREAKING: Iranian security officials believe the US is planning an air assault operation on key southern airports Bandar Abbas, Kermanshah, Urmia, and Tabriz whilst coordinating with a militia ground invasion on North Western Iran according to the state run Tehran Times.

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Restore Australia 🇦🇺
Restore Australia 🇦🇺@RestoreAussies·
Net zero is a scam, with the goal of de-industrialising the west and making us incapable of driving manufacturing or businesses economically. Australia emits less than 1% of the global emissions totals, so why cripple ourselves financially over a warped ideology.
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Stokdog@stokdog

Selling millions of metric tonnes of coal annually to China to power their ~1,200 coal plants (and growing) is fine. 18 coal fired plants in Australia is an emissions problem. Hit ♥️ if you think Australians are being scammed

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Restore Australia 🇦🇺
Restore Australia 🇦🇺@RestoreAussies·
@YourNewReality_ I speak in reality. Not ideology or what I wish to be true. Renewables are a tiny portion of the energy equation.
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Restore Australia 🇦🇺
Restore Australia 🇦🇺@RestoreAussies·
The politicians seeming don’t understand why we have the highest per capita diesel consumption in the entire planet. We have an utterly vast nation, with the largest cattle stations on earth. Anna Station itself is larger than entire nations, such as Israel, Wales, Rwanda, Belgium, Burundi, and Fiji. We have roads that stretch for thousands of kms and farms so vast, that you need endless diesel and fertiliser to keep them operational. To have our reserves and production capacity as low as they are, is tantamount to dangerous neglect. Our political class is playing with lives in this fuel crisis. Ditch Net Zero. Drill baby drill. Dig baby dig. Reindustrialise or perish. Australia must become a powerhouse once more 🔥 🇦🇺
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Cigarette Nostalgia
Cigarette Nostalgia@CigsMake·
I think we’re going to look back at the 90s and realize it was the best era of tech for humanity. Computers were starting to make things more efficient, but smartphones didn’t exist yet, so work didn’t follow you home. No social media, no constant news cycle. When work was over, you were actually done.
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