ExitStrategyWorld.com
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ExitStrategyWorld.com
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This would be a stunningly bold attack. I've circled on a map the locations. Such an operation would likely seek to capture the key coastal area through which the Iranians block the Strait while securing areas that could be used for logistics to support as Kurdish uprising/invasion. Here, I think that the Afghan invasion of 2001, Operation Enduring Freedom, might be a good template to examine. First the CIA went in with suitcases full of 100 dollar bills to buy support. Then, the US used elite light infantry and special forces, including British and Australian, to rush through key landing zones, logistics routes and cities to support the advance of the Northern Alliance. The Iranian planners and commentators have probably looked at exactly this when they consider likely US options, hence their suggestion that this is what Washington might be planning. Meantime, if the Pentagon is indeed looking at Bandar Abbas, they might think that by taking the coast, the USN could then perhaps to force the Strait. Key here, though, is that it would solve little in the short term. The Iranians would still have the capacity to fire missiles and drones across the full depth of the theatre (albeit some would be redistributed toward US invading forces). In fact, such an invasion would likely intensify attacks on those particular pain points which increase pressure on the US to bring things to an end. That means higher oil prices unless the market felt the Strait might be opened and oil facilities would escape without much further damage. The establishment of a Kurdish statelet would solve nothing, and once the US left (which it inevitably would, even if it took twenty years, like in Afghanistan, or ten, like in Vietnam), the Iranians would seek to retake their territory (as the Russians did in Chechnya after it was originally lost). Ultimately, if the invasion looked as though it was putting at risk the Iranian strategy of a countervalue campaign, they would be put in a 'use it or lose it' position that would hugely incentivise them to destroy Gulf oil production facilities, which would mean no oil whether the Strait was open or not. It is difficult to overstate the scale of the economic catastrophe that this would be for the world —and most mainstream media understate it significantly, treating it as thought it just meant higher oil prices. Finally, a move to bring the Kurds into the war would bring Turkey in, too, further destabilising the region—although Israel would be no doubt delighted with this, killing two birds with one stone. In conclusion, while such an attack could be another tactical success (if it worked, which would be far from certain), and would certainly do great damage to Iran as a nation, it is difficult to see how it would get the US closer to its strategic aim. Instead, it would increase the risk of global economic catastrophe, and shift the US into the zone of necessary permanent engagement as allies, corporations and the logic of committing yet more chips to the table would require and demand long term involvement. Is this even possible? Where would this be staged from? Europe?

For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices. That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than oil, but as significant.


This morning, drones have strayed into Finnish territory. One of the drones has been confirmed to be Ukrainian in origin. I want to emphasize that there is no military threat to Finland. Our authorities reacted to the situation immediately. I thank the authorities for their efficient action. The investigation of the incident continues. We are monitoring the situation closely. The authorities maintain readiness to react to future incidents. Finland stands ready to monitor and protect its territory.


اقتصادآنلاین گزارش داد بهدلیل حمله به شبکه انتقال برق پارچین، مناطق ۴، ۷، ۱۱، ۱۳ و ۱۴ تهران با خاموشی کامل مواجه شدند






Усть-Луга спутниковые снимки последствий сегодняшней повторной атаки дронов СБУ






BREAKING: Iranian security officials believe the US is planning an air assault operation on key southern airports Bandar Abbas, Kermanshah, Urmia, and Tabriz whilst coordinating with a militia ground invasion on North Western Iran according to the state run Tehran Times.

Dispensationalist theology peaked around the lead-up to George W. Bush's second term. Back then, the sentiment among Dispensationalist denominations was to vote for Dubya simply because he was Christian. One major Dispensationalist denomination is the Southern Baptist Convention (which Mike Huckabee belongs to). The SBC is the largest Protestant and second largest Christian body in the US. Their membership peaked in 2005 and has been declining ever since (down 23% from peak). At some point SBC Boomers like Mike Huckabee won't last forever and Dispensationalism will lose its grip.


Selling millions of metric tonnes of coal annually to China to power their ~1,200 coal plants (and growing) is fine. 18 coal fired plants in Australia is an emissions problem. Hit ♥️ if you think Australians are being scammed










