Explo_Global

139 posts

Explo_Global

Explo_Global

@Explo_Global

Yield farmer. Long term holds with upside optionality.

Katılım Aralık 2023
638 Takip Edilen62 Takipçiler
cyberprince
cyberprince@cyberprince_rwo·
ok fuck you google and facebook im back in reddit cause i have mental problems i love the company and the margins, best business in the world if it can sustain this numbers long term take my ideas, come to your own conclusions and do what makes sense to you i just gambleee $RDDT
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Explo_Global
Explo_Global@Explo_Global·
@51793977C @JonahLupton Drake just mentioned it in his new album, it’s clearly something real in the culture and more people than ever before are getting introduced to it via AI. Also Reddit is the least “AI slop” platform out there, I’ve been using it for 15 years and haven’t noticed decline quality
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Clayton
Clayton@51793977C·
>60% of traffic on $RDDT is bots. Kids dont use it, Gen Z makes fun of its users, Millennials dont have time to be on it. Those that do use it arent stable minded. Reddit sells its data for AI training. Companies that buy that data also operate the LLMs that are those bots. This is a loop of slop. Revenue has to fall off a cliff soon. No idea when investors will figure this out, or else I'd bet the house on it.
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Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton·
$RDDT down -4.7% today, continues to trade like crap. When $RDDT reports Q2 earnings... revenues should be up at least +50% YoY... and EPS should be up at least +60% YoY $RDDT market cap right now is $28B... when they report Q2 earnings they'll have approx $3B of net cash and $0 debt (depending on how much stock they bought back in the quarter)... which puts the enterprise value at approx $25B I think $RDDT does $2.0B+ of net income in 2027 which is only 8% above current sell side estimates... could certainly be $2.1B+ which is 13.5% above current sell side estimates. That means right now $RDDT could be trading at 12.5x 2027 net income (including their cash)... for a company growing eps at 55-60% this year and perhaps another 40-45% next year. Makes no sense. NFA. DYOR. *I own $RDDT personally and so does @FirstWaveFund
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton

Just saw the most recent alt data on $RDDT for expected Q2 total revs YoY, expected Q2 advertising revenues YoY, current US DAU growth YoY and current Global DAU growth YoY... all looking very good... all above estimates/consensus... definitely looking like $RDDT will grow revenues in CY2026 by at least 50-54% with margin expansion so CY2026 ebitda growth looking like 68-74% YoY... meanwhile $RDDT trading at 18x CY2026 ev/ebitda with $2.8B cash and $0 debt. NFA. DYOR. *I own $RDDT personally and so does @FirstWaveFund -- we added to our position today after seeing the third party data.

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M1
M1@M1nvest·
@DanielPostednik 0% growth will give you 18% Yield with the buybacks 😎 But I think USA, LatAm and Asia will show great growth this year! :)
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Lee Roach
Lee Roach@leevalueroach·
These sell side idiots are using wrong enterprise value and the WRONG SHARE COUNT on $HOG. KeyBanc claiming 125mm shares outstanding. Off by 20%.  UBS says 114mm - still 9mm too high.  They are an embarassment to their parents.
Lee Roach tweet mediaLee Roach tweet media
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Origo
Origo@origoinvest·
$OWL Q1 results are out, shares +5.7% pre-market I thought it was cheap here even when valuing the direct lending business on a run-off basis however fundraising was actually ahead of consensus at $9B driven by credit +$4.1B (narrative violation) Coupled with the overhang removal of founders’ share pledge and we likely won’t see <$8 from here As I’ve said elsewhere I view $OWL as a mean reversion play to >$12 / share rather than a long-term hold and much prefer $APO among the alts as one of the few that can keep compounding earnings at 20% due to fundamentally different market dynamics / business model
Origo tweet media
Origo@origoinvest

TWAP $OWL <8$ over the next 3-4 months will probably get you a high probability +20-50% over a 12-18 month time horizon

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Explo_Global
Explo_Global@Explo_Global·
@mwturetzky @heyitsalexsu You don’t get one without the other. You’re paying for a result that is the product of a whole team and staff, it just happens to be broken down into dollars per hour per lawyer.
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Matt Turetzky (turetzky.eth)
Matt Turetzky (turetzky.eth)@mwturetzky·
@heyitsalexsu Some of the best lawyers are worth more. The real issue isn’t the billable rates of the ones at the top. The real insanity is in the rates of the lawyers at the bottom.
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Stock Market Nerd
Stock Market Nerd@StockMarketNerd·
@ClayTravis Hard to get excited about either when their state level volume data has looked as bad as it has looked for about 6 weeks
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Clay Travis
Clay Travis@ClayTravis·
Fan Duel and Draft Kings have both hit six year stock price lows. Now trading where they were in the spring of 2020 when sports were shut down. Wild. Full fledged panic in sports gambling stocks.
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DBurton
DBurton@devrlast·
$BTI gained 4.7 million smokeless consumers in 2025 to reach 34.1 million total. Smokeless now 18.2% of revenue. Diluted EPS up 157%. Dividend growth 2%. Share buyback for 2026 1.3 billion GBP. On track to reduce leverage to 2.0-2.5x in 2026. Delivered at top end of guidance.
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Arya Deniz
Arya Deniz@Arya__Deniz·
Deep Dive: Texas Instruments (TXN) Within the robotics theme - I like & own three companies: $TXN / $ADI and $TER. This year, I’ve been buying several names within themes I like for the fund. Texas Instruments’ performance YTD has been amazing, so I decided to do a deep dive on it. Investing worked, and now is the time for investigation. I’ll be doing deep dives on the two other names mentioned over the coming days also. Link to the article: aryadeniz.substack.com/p/deep-dive-te…
Arya Deniz tweet media
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Gil Topaz
Gil Topaz@Gil_Topaz·
@SellersCounsel It’s really neat. The managing partners encourage us to pretty much choose our own adventure in there. Not something you see at most firms.
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Dallin Drescher
Dallin Drescher@SellersCounsel·
It’s honestly embarrassing how many transactional lawyers spend zero time perfecting their craft. They don’t read the statutes or pay attention to industry updates. New case law comes out without them even realizing. Just relying on decade-old forms and making decisions based on vibes. Those are the lawyers that AI-powered lawyers are going to decimate.
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Zephyr
Zephyr@zephyr_z9·
Things I'm watching out for now: magnitude of 8 inch wafer price increase, MEMS oscillators, CIS, inductors (tantalum capacitors are already seeing a price increase) 2026 is the year of analog and legacy semi, we have covered it in the semis memo Btw, ur GaN based smartphone chargers are about to get expensive
Zephyr@zephyr_z9

Price increases have already started in MLCCs, PMICs, DDICs "other components could also run short as the AI server boom continues to squeeze the rest of the supply chain." "But Apple’s playbook is clear: use the market chaos to their advantage—secure the chips, absorb the costs, and grab more market share. They’ll make it back later on the services side." Yes, they will also launch the $799 MacBooks to capture the entry level laptop market

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Arya Deniz
Arya Deniz@Arya__Deniz·
@jukan05 For sensors, $ADI / $TXN come to mind - basically, robotics theme names are tightly correlated with auto/industrial themes. So if this really happens then such names should work well
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
Someone asked me, “Jukan, what is the best robotic supply chain play, in your opinion?” So I tried to think it through and come to my own conclusion. I’d pick TSMC and the memory names. I think most robot components can ultimately be produced in-house. People love to talk about reducers having a huge technological moat, but when I ask people in the industry, the answer to “is it really that hard to make?” is usually no — it’s not that impossible. In the end, components other than the robot’s “brain” — meaning the logic chip and the memory chip paired with it — will have to compete head-on with Chinese companies. And honestly, I’m not sure you can maintain attractive profitability while competing with China in those areas. Even for the logic chip itself, China might eventually be able to design it domestically. But the foundries that can actually manufacture those “brain” logic chips, and the memory suppliers, feel much harder for China to truly penetrate in the long run. That’s my conclusion. And yeah — it seems I ended up recommending the “safer” plays rather than the best return opportunities. But I genuinely worry about China dominating humanoids the way it did EVs. The components that go into EVs and humanoid robots are highly similar. China has already taken over large parts of the supply chain — starting with smartphones and extending into EVs — and I can’t shake the feeling that it won’t take long before it also takes over the humanoid supply chain.
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Abcpoker
Abcpoker@AbcpokerBI·
Det farligaste man kan göra är att investera i bolag med höga förväntningar och låg värdering $EVO case in point ⤵️
Abcpoker tweet media
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SuspendedCap
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse·
*THE* most bombed out cycles Housing / building products Ag machinery Analog semis Trucking / rails Lithium Luxury
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Omer Cheema
Omer Cheema@OmerCheeema·
Guys, it would be a good time to buy semi stocks with industrial and mobile semiconductors exposure. Source: A semiconductor industry leader who talks to customers on daily basis.
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Ludvig Nathell
Ludvig Nathell@LNathell·
Pennsylvania iGaming GGR oktober ATH +7,6% MoM +32,8% YoY $EVO
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OVareNTr
OVareNTr@aledade3·
@Arkalos77 I do feel bad for long time shareholders who are sitting at a huge loss. I imagine that makes it hard to be objective. But looking at the company at the current valuation it seems like an easy buy/hold. 10x FCF for an industry leader in a fast growing market w temporary headwinds
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Explo_Global
Explo_Global@Explo_Global·
@aledade3 @Speedwell_LLC No legit operator can go with Playtech going forward right? If they did shady shit here they could do shady shit with them. Why would a FanDuel or DraftKings risk a long term partnership with someone like that?
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OVareNTr
OVareNTr@aledade3·
@Speedwell_LLC You think any tangible impact in terms of shifting mkt share?
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Speedwell Research
Speedwell Research@Speedwell_LLC·
Turns out Evolutions largest competitor, PlayTech, was behind the report that said you could play $EVO games in Iran. It gives credence to Evolution (who was taking A LOT of market share from Playtech) that the report was just to smear them. Best possible outcome for $EVVTY
Speedwell Research tweet media
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