Kelvin

Twice in under a year now, the market has sold off hard and snapped right back into monster V-shaped recoveries. That’s not just a pattern, it’s conditioning. Each bounce reinforces the behavior. The next dip will be even shallower, gets bought faster, with more size, and less hesitation. Retail isn’t just buying dips anymore, they’re being trained to EXPECT a V-shaped recovery during Trump 2.0. So if we do get another sharp drawdown in the next two years… Who’s actually going to sit there and believe this is the time the market sells off for an extended period? My bet is almost no one. The belief is now baked in: this administration simply won’t let the market go down too far for too long. Hedge funds came into this selloff heavily short… and what followed wasn’t broad participation — it was low volume paired with massive positive call premiums. That’s not organic buying. That’s a squeeze. Short covering removes the selling pressure. Heavy call buying forces dealers to delta hedge into a rising tape. The move is mechanical — not conviction. And we haven’t even hit the FOMO stage yet. The majority of X is still saying “zero shot I’m chasing this move.” Which is exactly what they said this time last year and so many are once again on the outside looking in. Squeezes start the move. FOMO finishes it. And from what I’m reading tonight we’re not there yet.